bitcoin short
Updated
Bitcoin obviously left rational / sustainable prices.
And it may have got 4 times the amount of active users as in 2014 ? (according to blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?timespan=all)
- But then, do we need to reach 4 times the price of 2014?
Now users have different demografics. Back then it was coders/developers, and some who believed in bitcoin and also gamblers.
probably richer in average (more bitcoins per person.)
2014 was people still not trusting it as much as now and needing or wanting to leave more than now (New miners and others) .
and others feeling like it was just a game. And some people not willing to give away any - at any price before $10 billions in marketcap or so, which seemed enough in 2014,
even expecting fast developments, leaving enough opportunity to buy back cheaper.
Yet it went above $14 billion for a brief moment so another 40%
Today people are here more permanently and more people. And poorer people.
They are more rational because it is necessary. They may bought 0.1 Bitcoin for $60. Sell it for $250. Buy it again for $125
I know even silver does some weird charts for example
- but the bigger bitcoin gets the less likely is parabolic shape!
Parabolic shape is basically just a Ponzi-Party (next to some real new fans and capital)
- And exploring the equilibrium in minds:
What should be the maximum now? - Thats all.
So what should be the maximum?
Bitcoin may has only got ~70 times fewer active than paypal but bitcoin users do 20 times the volume per person in
USD
Because it is cheaper, they can move it between wallets. Or anything. And some bought it cheaper.
so bitcoin could be worth half as much as paypal now = $30 billion
it is far, but doesnt look that far anymore either!
that is where Bitcoin paused for some days this time (at $30 billions)
Of course it has potential to grow many times, but all other Crypto currencies may have too...
So that may be just be the right amount for now.
And it already tried another 40% again too right now ($42 billion)
But this time it may be even faster?
bitcoin may have dozens of millions of active users later, like paypal or even as many as visa, or more (including "the unbanked")
but by then the price will be much more stable too.
Gambling may level itself out sooner through advanced / leveraged trading which was not possible/common in 2014
Option 2 (pink): Bitcoin could go more than up vertically (above 100% slope) - so even go backwards in time and leave space?
And it may have got 4 times the amount of active users as in 2014 ? (according to blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100?timespan=all)
- But then, do we need to reach 4 times the price of 2014?
Now users have different demografics. Back then it was coders/developers, and some who believed in bitcoin and also gamblers.
probably richer in average (more bitcoins per person.)
2014 was people still not trusting it as much as now and needing or wanting to leave more than now (New miners and others) .
and others feeling like it was just a game. And some people not willing to give away any - at any price before $10 billions in marketcap or so, which seemed enough in 2014,
even expecting fast developments, leaving enough opportunity to buy back cheaper.
Yet it went above $14 billion for a brief moment so another 40%
Today people are here more permanently and more people. And poorer people.
They are more rational because it is necessary. They may bought 0.1 Bitcoin for $60. Sell it for $250. Buy it again for $125
I know even silver does some weird charts for example
- but the bigger bitcoin gets the less likely is parabolic shape!
Parabolic shape is basically just a Ponzi-Party (next to some real new fans and capital)
- And exploring the equilibrium in minds:
What should be the maximum now? - Thats all.
So what should be the maximum?
Bitcoin may has only got ~70 times fewer active than paypal but bitcoin users do 20 times the volume per person in
USDBecause it is cheaper, they can move it between wallets. Or anything. And some bought it cheaper.
so bitcoin could be worth half as much as paypal now = $30 billion
it is far, but doesnt look that far anymore either!
that is where Bitcoin paused for some days this time (at $30 billions)
Of course it has potential to grow many times, but all other Crypto currencies may have too...
So that may be just be the right amount for now.
And it already tried another 40% again too right now ($42 billion)
But this time it may be even faster?
bitcoin may have dozens of millions of active users later, like paypal or even as many as visa, or more (including "the unbanked")
but by then the price will be much more stable too.
Gambling may level itself out sooner through advanced / leveraged trading which was not possible/common in 2014
Option 2 (pink): Bitcoin could go more than up vertically (above 100% slope) - so even go backwards in time and leave space?
Note
now bearish candle/hammer incoming and time to crash?was this a squeeze already?
you got detailed view on the last time (2014?)
Note
this time the bullish candle was weak/fake and couldnt make it through the wedge/ascending triangleNote
ascending triangle increasing angle/steepness and thus increasing liablity to crashsame top
Note
Broken. Shorters may take over now. Today bitcoin can prove some majority.
Whether you are long since $200, since $800 or just since a few days.
Now it is smart to close.
And it is the right thing to do.
Dont make yourself guilty of wasting your gains again.
(or collectively causing/squeezinh the most irrational loses for others.)
Note
as always, shorts may set a stop at 2640 or soif you are long and dont want to miss another few % also keep in mind the further up it goes the faster it turns. And at some point noone can rationally decide anymore and it would be luck if you got a price significantly higher or lower than you thought, when closing
Note
ascending wedge to be more precise! Note
(so we got 3 resistance trends, of which the lowest may already made it turn now. While the blue support gets weaker when it is rising and if it breaks there may be no floor soon.)Note
creepy flying snake discovered and catched in wedge cave to slow down momentum 
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