Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change? Part 2
Updated
Yesterday (12 hours ago) i showed some thing in my channel, since i did a bit more research, about who these spoofers prob were in this case. You can read it there if you want to see it. That we saw a Bart move happen, is no surprise, since the volume dropped to like 35% of what it was the days before, making it easier again to make these moves.
Anyway, it looks like we had that last wave up i mentioned in my previous analysis and have started the bigger correction now (also that target i gave Sunday/Monday around 4000/4050) has been reached now. Probably making an ABC towards the 3850/3700 (best guess is around 3800/3780), to see if this rally the past week was real and going to be supported by buyers again or not. That is simply how it should be, to see if there are enough bulls in the market willing to get in again at those levels. To test if those prices are attractive to buy again or not. Because if it's not, with a max of 3700ish, it means this whole rally would have no foundation at all. With short squeezes we are used to seeing rallies fail, because those moves were forced moves and not real buying, not a real fight between bears and bulls. This rally from 3400 to 3650 was a short squeeze (mostly), but i think i mentioned that it is allowed to see that at the start but will depend on the follow through if we will see real buying or not.
Now it took 10 days or so, but the second leg up from 3600 to 3900 was real buying, there was no short squeeze going on whatsoever. Volume was also very high again, which confirms the rally as well. I have compared the Dec rally and this one again. There are a few differences, with the biggest one being, after each push up things go in sideways mode again. So i am not sure yet what to make of that, could also be nothing since the volume picture is a bit different as well as we can see in the chart below. This is also what i think will prob happen today, that ABC i mentioned above. Ignore the move we saw in Dec, because that was a short squeeze again, this time it could have a complete different shape.
Volume in general for Bitcoin' has not reached the Dec rally yet, so we really want to see more volume, but just like below the 3700, it could still happen. It is safe to say now, with each decent move up (like 100+ points up) the volume has to become bigger at each step, if that doesn't happen during moves up, those rallies will fail again. When looking at ETH' at Bitmex thought, the volume is almost 3 times that of Dec. Also when looking at alts (picked 20 of the top 30/40), we can see that 60/70% has lower volume than Dec as well. Which is a bit worrying, but the problem with comparing is, in Dec the rally happened much faster, each consolidation was like 1 or 2 days. We had a 10 day consolidation at the 3600 and the current one is also already taking 3 days where in Dec would be half that.
One important factor to keep an eye out on is volume. As long as we see buying volume being bigger than selling volume, chances for the trend being up is bigger. If that changes, than we have to be looking for lower prices again. But not on the low time frame, you can start with the 1h, but more like the 4h and the daily.
For the rest, i have copied some things of my previous analysis here below, since that is still in play:
Short term: We will most likely see at least another move above today's high of 3920. For the coming days i think we will see a move towards 3950/4000 at least before making a bigger correction. We have room until 3720/3700 for a correction(the turning point between bull and bear i mentioned the past weeks), but ideally we stay above the 3780/3800.
Coming weeks: As i mentioned many times before, even in Dec, i won't be making any predictions to whether this move is just a correction up to simply resume the bear trend again or that we have a change in the trend. We should simply judge it while it happens. A very big clue will be the red zone on the left, if the 4600 the chances increase for a trend change. To feel more confident about it, i want to see it reach the yellow circle around 5200 (target of that very ugly inverse H&S ). If we would see it happen within 2 weeks or so, it will be very likely that we are in an impulse wave and we could see another big wave up the coming months.
If the bulls fail and things slow down a lot between 4000 and 4400, it will be more likely that this whole move is simply a big ABC correction within the big bear trend. The coming days could give us a big clue for all of this, with a break of that thick red line, to confirm the higher low pattern.
To make things clear, with trend change, i don't mean the bear market is over. We need much more for that to happen. Until a few months ago that level was around 13K for me. Now it could be lower, maybe between 8K and 10K. But no use to thinking about that already, to reach those levels there has to be a real fundamental change first.
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Previous analysis:
Anyway, it looks like we had that last wave up i mentioned in my previous analysis and have started the bigger correction now (also that target i gave Sunday/Monday around 4000/4050) has been reached now. Probably making an ABC towards the 3850/3700 (best guess is around 3800/3780), to see if this rally the past week was real and going to be supported by buyers again or not. That is simply how it should be, to see if there are enough bulls in the market willing to get in again at those levels. To test if those prices are attractive to buy again or not. Because if it's not, with a max of 3700ish, it means this whole rally would have no foundation at all. With short squeezes we are used to seeing rallies fail, because those moves were forced moves and not real buying, not a real fight between bears and bulls. This rally from 3400 to 3650 was a short squeeze (mostly), but i think i mentioned that it is allowed to see that at the start but will depend on the follow through if we will see real buying or not.
Now it took 10 days or so, but the second leg up from 3600 to 3900 was real buying, there was no short squeeze going on whatsoever. Volume was also very high again, which confirms the rally as well. I have compared the Dec rally and this one again. There are a few differences, with the biggest one being, after each push up things go in sideways mode again. So i am not sure yet what to make of that, could also be nothing since the volume picture is a bit different as well as we can see in the chart below. This is also what i think will prob happen today, that ABC i mentioned above. Ignore the move we saw in Dec, because that was a short squeeze again, this time it could have a complete different shape.
Volume in general for Bitcoin' has not reached the Dec rally yet, so we really want to see more volume, but just like below the 3700, it could still happen. It is safe to say now, with each decent move up (like 100+ points up) the volume has to become bigger at each step, if that doesn't happen during moves up, those rallies will fail again. When looking at ETH' at Bitmex thought, the volume is almost 3 times that of Dec. Also when looking at alts (picked 20 of the top 30/40), we can see that 60/70% has lower volume than Dec as well. Which is a bit worrying, but the problem with comparing is, in Dec the rally happened much faster, each consolidation was like 1 or 2 days. We had a 10 day consolidation at the 3600 and the current one is also already taking 3 days where in Dec would be half that.
One important factor to keep an eye out on is volume. As long as we see buying volume being bigger than selling volume, chances for the trend being up is bigger. If that changes, than we have to be looking for lower prices again. But not on the low time frame, you can start with the 1h, but more like the 4h and the daily.
For the rest, i have copied some things of my previous analysis here below, since that is still in play:
Short term: We will most likely see at least another move above today's high of 3920. For the coming days i think we will see a move towards 3950/4000 at least before making a bigger correction. We have room until 3720/3700 for a correction(the turning point between bull and bear i mentioned the past weeks), but ideally we stay above the 3780/3800.
Coming weeks: As i mentioned many times before, even in Dec, i won't be making any predictions to whether this move is just a correction up to simply resume the bear trend again or that we have a change in the trend. We should simply judge it while it happens. A very big clue will be the red zone on the left, if the 4600 the chances increase for a trend change. To feel more confident about it, i want to see it reach the yellow circle around 5200 (target of that very ugly inverse H&S ). If we would see it happen within 2 weeks or so, it will be very likely that we are in an impulse wave and we could see another big wave up the coming months.
If the bulls fail and things slow down a lot between 4000 and 4400, it will be more likely that this whole move is simply a big ABC correction within the big bear trend. The coming days could give us a big clue for all of this, with a break of that thick red line, to confirm the higher low pattern.
To make things clear, with trend change, i don't mean the bear market is over. We need much more for that to happen. Until a few months ago that level was around 13K for me. Now it could be lower, maybe between 8K and 10K. But no use to thinking about that already, to reach those levels there has to be a real fundamental change first.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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When we look at this picture, the drop of the longs is almost identical. Also confirming probably that the stage i think we are in is the right oneNote
Seems buyers are trying to turn it up again here. If they can hold those curved lines, we could see another attempt. OI is very high and rising again, so a move might happen soon. However, volume is quite low, so unless this increases with this attempt, it can all be a delay of a drop (correction)Note
New ETH analysis:
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New Litecoin analysis:
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New XRP analysis:
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There was a decent attempt going on, especially from ETH, but just like yesterday (or the day before) it's like Bitcoin just does not want to follow. Anyway, at the moment there is no volume to give this move real foundation. There was some an hour ago but not it seems to be gone again. Normally we should stay above those blue zones, so i those break, that abc correction down is prob still in play then.
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Making an attempt and failing and now another attempt but volume is still very low so chance of succeeding ain't high now. When looking back 2 months ago, looks a bit similar, but when looking at the volume profile, we can see the volume the past 2 days is similar as well, where selling volume seems to be the same, but the big move up back then was a short squeeze with low volume. This time it was strong buying with high volume. And when zooming in we can see that some moments buying volume is bigger, actually the past 24 hours, with this and yesterday's attempt.
ETH is very close to touching that 148ish, as described in the ETH analysis. If that happens, chances will increase.
I would just keep a close eye out now, since the range is getting smaller. Low side is 3880 and high is 3970ish
I am not at home rest of the day, so i can't watch it. As long as you don't see volume increase much more, i would be careful with being bullish.
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A surprise rally on Saturday at a time usually never happens. Only Saturday's at Asia time we have seen movement like this the past half year. A first sign was ETH touching the 148 as described in that analysis. Anyway, volume seem to be good for a Saturday now, also looks like a bull flag now. If that holds, the 4110/20, we should be seeing 4300ish in a few hours. The 4080ish should hold from now on.
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A push above these highs will most likely mean another push to those targets. Below that support line, means sideways/down or a bigger correction even. It has to happen quickly though (like 10/20 min moving towards the high again), otherwise it means bulls are loosing strength/momentum
This all seems to be a real fight again
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New Bitcoin analysis:
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