Inverse H&S, Fibonacci retracement, and 200 EMA on 4h
Updated
Hello all,
As pointed out in a previous post (see below), the inverse head and shoulder pattern is relatively complete.
Given that the RSI shows that BTCUSD is overbought, a short-term pullback is to be expected (and has actually begun already). Some people here claim that the pullback will follow a triangle-pattern with a pullback to 6300- 6400 USD and then a move up to the H&S neckline. However, I expect a relatively small pullback to the 0.786 Fibonacci level (around 6580 USD) as it aligns with the 200 EMA (blue line), providing strong support. I think that crossing the 200 EMA is a very strong signal of BTCUSD making a move upwards, because when BTCUSD convinvingly crossed the 200 EMA in the past, it was followed by a sharp uptrend.
Thus, if the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the 200 EMA hold, this would point towards a strong upwards trend and a completion of the inverse head and shoulder. In my opinion, the conservative target (T1) of the inverse head and shoulder pattern would be around 7700 USD. The more liberal target (T2) of the upwards movement would be the downard-sloping trendline resistance around 8200 USD, followed by a strong(er) pullback.
What do you think?
* Note that I am using the Log-scale.
--- DISCLAIMER ---
This information is NOT a trading, investing, buy, or sell advice.
This information is a personal opinion and to be used for educational purposes only.
As pointed out in a previous post (see below), the inverse head and shoulder pattern is relatively complete.
Given that the RSI shows that BTCUSD is overbought, a short-term pullback is to be expected (and has actually begun already). Some people here claim that the pullback will follow a triangle-pattern with a pullback to 6300- 6400 USD and then a move up to the H&S neckline. However, I expect a relatively small pullback to the 0.786 Fibonacci level (around 6580 USD) as it aligns with the 200 EMA (blue line), providing strong support. I think that crossing the 200 EMA is a very strong signal of BTCUSD making a move upwards, because when BTCUSD convinvingly crossed the 200 EMA in the past, it was followed by a sharp uptrend.
Thus, if the 0.786 Fibonacci level and the 200 EMA hold, this would point towards a strong upwards trend and a completion of the inverse head and shoulder. In my opinion, the conservative target (T1) of the inverse head and shoulder pattern would be around 7700 USD. The more liberal target (T2) of the upwards movement would be the downard-sloping trendline resistance around 8200 USD, followed by a strong(er) pullback.
What do you think?
* Note that I am using the Log-scale.
--- DISCLAIMER ---
This information is NOT a trading, investing, buy, or sell advice.
This information is a personal opinion and to be used for educational purposes only.
Note
Update:Thanks BTCUSD for proving me (and many others) right :)
It is great to see that the inverse H&S pattern worked out perfectly. BTCUSD poked T1 (in chart above) and the current price is now at the 1.414 Fibonacci extension level, working on the resistance between 7300 USD and 7800 USD. RSI is heavily overbought on the 4h time frame, which should make everyone cautious, because a pullback is to be expected. I do not know whether it means anything (I am still learning), but such high RSI levels have rarely been seen in the past; interestingly most of the time these RSI levels (after retracement) were followed by a bullish days and weeks.
Speaking of retracement, BTCUSD could retest the neckline of the inverse H&S, but I doubt it will in the short term. I would rather expect that BTCUSD will either consolidate around the current price or will make a small retracement to the 1.272 Fibonacci level to eventually move upwards towards T2.
I am really interested what you guys think to which which level BTCUSD will retrace? Any opinions?
Note
Something to be aware of: 
Note
Thanks to tradingview.com/u/DDBUCO/ for pointing this out.
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