Well the title already says it :)
How could PlanB's famous Stock 2 Flow target of 288k fit into the curved logarithmic trend channel?
Well, turns out, it could.
In March 2020, the Covid crash brought us massively out of the trend channel to the downside, by quite a lot as we can see. This was a strong undershoot event.
An overshoot of the channel is therefore also possible, and the deviation of 288k from the upper trendline would not be so much higher than the deviation of 4k was from the lower trendline.
Plus, apart from the S2F model, there is another reason why 288k would make sense.
Namely, if we look at the fib extensions, the 20k top in December 2017 was in fact the 4.23 fib extension of the top of Dec 2013 and the low of Jan 2015.
Accordingly, 288k would also be the 4.23 fib extension of the high from 20k in Dec 2017 to the low of 3200 USD in Dec 2018.
Thus, the 288k target would not only still fit into the longterm curved log channel, but also it would fit in nicely with the fib extension that BTC did in the rally before.
So, 288k then? Possible, yes. But we cannot know unfortunately. We will have to see how BTC will react at the upper curved channel at around 100k.
Currently, I think BTC might do a longer sideways or downard move before resuming the rally, because of the bearish divergences in the 1d, 3d and 1w charts.
But of course, BTC sometimes doesn't car about such things, so it could also just continue straight up from here. Let's see :)
How could PlanB's famous Stock 2 Flow target of 288k fit into the curved logarithmic trend channel?
Well, turns out, it could.
In March 2020, the Covid crash brought us massively out of the trend channel to the downside, by quite a lot as we can see. This was a strong undershoot event.
An overshoot of the channel is therefore also possible, and the deviation of 288k from the upper trendline would not be so much higher than the deviation of 4k was from the lower trendline.
Plus, apart from the S2F model, there is another reason why 288k would make sense.
Namely, if we look at the fib extensions, the 20k top in December 2017 was in fact the 4.23 fib extension of the top of Dec 2013 and the low of Jan 2015.
Accordingly, 288k would also be the 4.23 fib extension of the high from 20k in Dec 2017 to the low of 3200 USD in Dec 2018.
Thus, the 288k target would not only still fit into the longterm curved log channel, but also it would fit in nicely with the fib extension that BTC did in the rally before.
So, 288k then? Possible, yes. But we cannot know unfortunately. We will have to see how BTC will react at the upper curved channel at around 100k.
Currently, I think BTC might do a longer sideways or downard move before resuming the rally, because of the bearish divergences in the 1d, 3d and 1w charts.
But of course, BTC sometimes doesn't car about such things, so it could also just continue straight up from here. Let's see :)
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.