Bitcoin has been in a downtrend since January of 2021
Updated
I think it's safe to say nobody knows where the bottom is. We could go to 20k, 12.5k or 25k could be the bottom. But I think it's also safe to say it is reasonable to start dollar cost averaging in the market soon. The weekly RSI is at 33 which historically is very low. But the true market bottom is usually around RSI 27 so there is probably still some downside left. Bear markets can last for years but they don't have to. BTC has a finite supply and a lot of it is stuck in dead wallets with lost keys, that is one of the reasons why I think the risk/reward ratio is starting to look attractive.
The DXY could be starting to form a top, as we see a bearish divergence on the Daily RSI which could be bullish for risk on assets across the board. But these divergences can take a long time to play out, the DXY could still form a higher high with a lower high on the RSI before reversing to it's macro downtrend.
So I am neutral for now but as a long term investor, slowly dollar cost averaging down from here seems like a good idea. Remember 10.5 trillion were printed in 2020, this money hasn't vanished, a lot of it is just waiting on the sidelines which we can clearly see on the total money supply chart.
Good luck people and remember never buy more than you can afford to lose. :)
The DXY could be starting to form a top, as we see a bearish divergence on the Daily RSI which could be bullish for risk on assets across the board. But these divergences can take a long time to play out, the DXY could still form a higher high with a lower high on the RSI before reversing to it's macro downtrend.
So I am neutral for now but as a long term investor, slowly dollar cost averaging down from here seems like a good idea. Remember 10.5 trillion were printed in 2020, this money hasn't vanished, a lot of it is just waiting on the sidelines which we can clearly see on the total money supply chart.
Good luck people and remember never buy more than you can afford to lose. :)
Note
As long as we stay above 12k I consider this whole downtrend a giant bull flag :)Note
Still doubt we will touch the 2018 high, 25k could very well be the bottom. This cycle had much better distribution at the top.Note
Looks like BTC is getting accumulated right now by people with deep pockets. Always happens when the retail investors are scared. Accumulation phase is always before the participation phase, never forget that guys.Note
I thought I should share this. I am a long term bull on BTC but it looks like a correction and backtest is necessary to move higher in the next few weeks.
The measured move of the small yellow symetrical triangle has been met and It looks like BTC will correct soon to either 25.3k, 23.6k or 21.8k.
This fibonacci retracement was placed higher on 2 very important pivot points and extended towards the downside. I simply left it on the chart for months, and it has nailed every move since very precisely. If anyone is interested to reproduce this, the 0 is at 45450$ and the 1 at 32764$. The 1.236 extension of those 2 pivot points is at 30,3k, exactly where BTC found resistance recently.
It is possible that BTC goes even higher, but unless the RSI breaks the high of February, this now months old bearish divergence will eventually play out.
Note
This is the same chart but zoomed out on the daily. Note the vertical lines: every 1st of November every 2 years the history of Bitcoin is either the start of a new bullrun or close to the end of a bear market.
Note
And here is BTC forming what looks like yet another gigantic bull flag :)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.