BTC halving cycles, rhyming history & gauging bottoms
In the chart displayed I took the logarithmic growth of bitcoin and explored historic trends and figures that can *potentially* be used in predicting an unpredictable market.
Note that there a multiple logarithmic growth curves for bitcoin online and my thesis is based on the curve seen in the chart provided by quantadelic on TradingView so big thank you to them. This idea can be invalidated on other log curves hence the note.
Other than that I sourced halving dates from: Deltec
None of this is financial advice and I am only doing this for the sake of having fun charting and sharing an idea that might bring you some value
As seen from the 2012, 2016 & 2020 halving
BTC always starts off with a huge expansion phase followed by a contraction phase after peaking and finally a smaller expansion/consolidation approaching the next halving cycle. Provided that we have only seen 2 cycles play out it is difficult to make estimated guesses due to the lack of data but nonetheless we utilise what we have.
The 2012 expansion lasted for ±367 days while the 2016 expansion lasted for ±526 days. Provided that history repeats itself we can acknowledge that bitcoin has established its peak whether that be peak 1 (mid April ±336 days after halving) or peak 2 (early November ±546 days after halving) using previous cycle day counts and can now expect to find a trough. I believe these were both local tops this cycle and that we still see a global top this cycle explained later in this piece. Approximately a year after a cycle peak we see a mass capitulation event that marks the trough AKA the cycle bottom. We saw this play out in the 2012 cycle where bitcoin capitulated about 400 days after peaking & in the 2016 cycle where bitcoin capitulated almost exactly 1 year (364 days) after peaking marking the trough. If we apply history to the current 2020 cycle (and to its double top i.e to each peak) I expect BTC to find a bottom anywhere between April '22 (±1 year after 1st peak) or November '22 (±1 year after 2nd peak) anywhere along the logarithmic growth curve, as it has historically bottomed there. It is important to note that the curve does not define a bottom and we can still nuke further (see March of 2020 covid black swan outlier where bitcoin fell 50% below the curve). There are a lot of macro factors that can cause another nuke such as a nuclear war, no pun intended or a global recession. This should be considered before bidding and understanding risk accordingly, although I believe bitcoin will flourish in either of these scenarios as it is the hardest money out there.
Finally back to the idea of a global cycle top, if history repeats then bitcoin should closely rest on the logarithmic growth curve meaning that towards the next cycle one bitcoin should be valued at over one hundred thousand united state dollars. Am I certain bitcoin will be valued at that? Not at all, I have no clue other than the logic I wrote here. It will take a massive amount of spot bids to get us over 100k and am only basing this off of historical price chilling at the bottom of the logarithmic growth curve. I will personally DCA and bid anywhere along the bottom of the curve, as always DYOR. You may have also noticed that I did not comment on bitcoin peaking at the upper band of the curve, this may or may not happen before the next halving and I prefer not to comment.
This is my first time writing something like this. I hope you enjoyed reading and found value in my idea on how things will play out. Happy trading
twitter: psycryptocat
Note that there a multiple logarithmic growth curves for bitcoin online and my thesis is based on the curve seen in the chart provided by quantadelic on TradingView so big thank you to them. This idea can be invalidated on other log curves hence the note.
Other than that I sourced halving dates from: Deltec
None of this is financial advice and I am only doing this for the sake of having fun charting and sharing an idea that might bring you some value
As seen from the 2012, 2016 & 2020 halving
BTC always starts off with a huge expansion phase followed by a contraction phase after peaking and finally a smaller expansion/consolidation approaching the next halving cycle. Provided that we have only seen 2 cycles play out it is difficult to make estimated guesses due to the lack of data but nonetheless we utilise what we have.The 2012 expansion lasted for ±367 days while the 2016 expansion lasted for ±526 days. Provided that history repeats itself we can acknowledge that bitcoin has established its peak whether that be peak 1 (mid April ±336 days after halving) or peak 2 (early November ±546 days after halving) using previous cycle day counts and can now expect to find a trough. I believe these were both local tops this cycle and that we still see a global top this cycle explained later in this piece. Approximately a year after a cycle peak we see a mass capitulation event that marks the trough AKA the cycle bottom. We saw this play out in the 2012 cycle where bitcoin capitulated about 400 days after peaking & in the 2016 cycle where bitcoin capitulated almost exactly 1 year (364 days) after peaking marking the trough. If we apply history to the current 2020 cycle (and to its double top i.e to each peak) I expect BTC to find a bottom anywhere between April '22 (±1 year after 1st peak) or November '22 (±1 year after 2nd peak) anywhere along the logarithmic growth curve, as it has historically bottomed there. It is important to note that the curve does not define a bottom and we can still nuke further (see March of 2020 covid black swan outlier where bitcoin fell 50% below the curve). There are a lot of macro factors that can cause another nuke such as a nuclear war, no pun intended or a global recession. This should be considered before bidding and understanding risk accordingly, although I believe bitcoin will flourish in either of these scenarios as it is the hardest money out there.
Finally back to the idea of a global cycle top, if history repeats then bitcoin should closely rest on the logarithmic growth curve meaning that towards the next cycle one bitcoin should be valued at over one hundred thousand united state dollars. Am I certain bitcoin will be valued at that? Not at all, I have no clue other than the logic I wrote here. It will take a massive amount of spot bids to get us over 100k and am only basing this off of historical price chilling at the bottom of the logarithmic growth curve. I will personally DCA and bid anywhere along the bottom of the curve, as always DYOR. You may have also noticed that I did not comment on bitcoin peaking at the upper band of the curve, this may or may not happen before the next halving and I prefer not to comment.
This is my first time writing something like this. I hope you enjoyed reading and found value in my idea on how things will play out. Happy trading
twitter: psycryptocat
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