BTC - Decision time!
Updated
We are getting close to the Bear - Bull showdown!
Are we in the third leg of the final wave 5 (to USD 6,000 / 7,000 or even 10,000?), or are we still in the ABC correction after the last wave? Shortly we will know.
My thoughts:
(1) On the shorter time frames, I see a potential H&S forming, potentially bringing us down to the USD 4280 - 4300 support line. After that I think we will see another upward movement.
(2) We are still in a rising wedge and a rising wedge means: trouble!
(3) I see us getting to USD 6,000 - 7,000 before the hardfork in November.
So I am short term bullish, mid term bearish and long term bullish.
My strategy:
Over the course of this week, I will sell some (not more than half!) of my alts for BTC. I am doing this because if we break that bullish confirmation line, BTC will go on a Bull run and alts will get left behind, if we break the support line, BTC will go down and alts with it (BTC up -> alts down, BTC consolidation -> alts up, BTC down -> alts down!). If we do get a bearish confirmation, I will sell 1/3 BTC for fiat (to buy back lower).
Now, I am not saying you should follow this strategy, however, I encourage you to have a STRATEGY. Regardless if it is bearish or bullish. And always look from both perspectives! That is why I have looked at the possible trends for both bullish and bearish sentiments (Red and green numbers in the chart.
All will depend on that Bull - Bear confirmation line.
Admittedly, if we are still in the (C) correction after the last wave, this would be the mother of all bull traps!
Are we in the third leg of the final wave 5 (to USD 6,000 / 7,000 or even 10,000?), or are we still in the ABC correction after the last wave? Shortly we will know.
My thoughts:
(1) On the shorter time frames, I see a potential H&S forming, potentially bringing us down to the USD 4280 - 4300 support line. After that I think we will see another upward movement.
(2) We are still in a rising wedge and a rising wedge means: trouble!
(3) I see us getting to USD 6,000 - 7,000 before the hardfork in November.
So I am short term bullish, mid term bearish and long term bullish.
My strategy:
Over the course of this week, I will sell some (not more than half!) of my alts for BTC. I am doing this because if we break that bullish confirmation line, BTC will go on a Bull run and alts will get left behind, if we break the support line, BTC will go down and alts with it (BTC up -> alts down, BTC consolidation -> alts up, BTC down -> alts down!). If we do get a bearish confirmation, I will sell 1/3 BTC for fiat (to buy back lower).
Now, I am not saying you should follow this strategy, however, I encourage you to have a STRATEGY. Regardless if it is bearish or bullish. And always look from both perspectives! That is why I have looked at the possible trends for both bullish and bearish sentiments (Red and green numbers in the chart.
All will depend on that Bull - Bear confirmation line.
Admittedly, if we are still in the (C) correction after the last wave, this would be the mother of all bull traps!
Trade active
This is that potential H&S I was talking aboutNote
So the first part of the trade played out. We have seen a small H&S within the rising wedge. It has bounce of a major support line forming the lower line of the rising wedge. There is no reason for panic, yet...
If it goes up from here we could see another upward movement and BTC might be safe for a couple days...
There are two points of interest which I have pointed out on the chart below. One is a breach of the support line from here and the other is a false upward movement which may form a bigger H&S.
If we break support, I will be going to fiat a bit to buy back lower. If I see a downward movement forming the right shoulder, I will also go to fiat a bit for safety.
Note
BTC is trying to hold the line! With the last run it bought itself a couple hours to make up its mind.Note
Small update and what to look for
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