BitcoinLong
Bullish Technical Analysis of BTC
Updated
One of my big points of interest during this bearish drop of doom was $5,750. With the count shown on this chart, if you take the length of waves 0-3 and stack them onto the close of wave 4 it lands at $5,750. Given that wave 5 usually closes between 62% and 100% the length of 0-3, this number meant quite a bit to me. So when things decided to change direction it wasn't a huge surprise.
Once we hit that target, there was some substantial RSI divergence to be seen on almost every time-line. Shortly after that we broke out of our RSI wedge to set up what could very possibly a wave 1 (or an "A"; time will tell). Now we are currently working on the close of wave 2 (or "B"). We have already retraced our wave 1 38.2%, which technically satisfies a potential scenario to signal the start of wave 3. The big reason I believe we will continue to retrace to the 50% of wave 1 is that it appears that 4-hour RSI wants to come down further to its new post-wedge resistance line. You can see that line on the chart. I think that we may have to retrace a little further to set up RSI prior to making a push towards the 1.62 ext of wave one for the close of 3 ($7,000).
Once we hit that target, there was some substantial RSI divergence to be seen on almost every time-line. Shortly after that we broke out of our RSI wedge to set up what could very possibly a wave 1 (or an "A"; time will tell). Now we are currently working on the close of wave 2 (or "B"). We have already retraced our wave 1 38.2%, which technically satisfies a potential scenario to signal the start of wave 3. The big reason I believe we will continue to retrace to the 50% of wave 1 is that it appears that 4-hour RSI wants to come down further to its new post-wedge resistance line. You can see that line on the chart. I think that we may have to retrace a little further to set up RSI prior to making a push towards the 1.62 ext of wave one for the close of 3 ($7,000).
Note
Here is a closer look at the potential count for our current impulse. As I mentioned above, we have already hit the 38.2% retracement which could imply lateral movement until we hit the support floor on our 4-hour RSI. If it decides to make a move down fairly quickly, there is also room to hit the 50% retracement before attempting a wave 3 break of the large top-side resistance at $6,420-$6,450. Note
Not much of an update. Still moving laterally as we approach our 4-hour RSI support. It could stay level as we move laterally, retest our 38.2% retracement or make a bigger move to a 50% retracement. Either way, my eyes are on a confirmed close of wave 2. Even if this ends up being just another ABC correction, and instead of moving into a wave 3 it is moving into a "C", there is still money to be made. Note
Coming up on a key moment within the next 3 hours. Keep on eye on a bounce off of RSI support or a break. Note
Well, so far so good. We have one more major resistance trend line that we have to get through to confirm a 5-wave impulse and not just another ABC corrective pattern. Note
Well, you saw what happen when RSI hit our support channel. Exactly as we thought it was enough to break through the $6,450 resistance and get us above our long-term resistance channel. Now we are working on the close of 3. Note
Waiting for 4-hour RSI to to reach critical support.
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