Bitcoin Bulls loosing Momentum or just Taking a Weekend Break
Updated
At the moment, looks as if an ABC towards the 10100/9900 is the minimum here. A lower high seems to be in the making around 10400. Only doubt about the ABC, is that weird wick we had yesterday, the yellow circle. Because could mean it has been completed already.
There has been a lot of noise with bitcoin past weeks, but think that is mostly because of the alt season though, which has been seen in the past as well. Only thing now that makes sense to me is the range between 10100 and 10400. Think if 10100ish breaks, the ABC should be in play. If 10400 breaks, then it's prob once again just noise and we could see another attempt to break up.
So far the bull flag target zone has been a turning point or resistance zone. 10400 could become a lower high here, think only a break of 9700ish would put the whole bullish structure in danger. Only if that support breaks, we would have a first lower low again during this rally. Until then, bulls are in favor, despite short term corrections. But Bulls have been loosing momentum when looking at Bitcoin, having a harder time to push higher. But alts have been pumping quite hard lately though which could explain that side again. Something we have not seen since the April 2018, last time alts really outperformed Bitcoin. Also used to see alts pump while Bitcoin was moving sideways/up.
Now i still think that together with the bull flag target zone around current highs, good chance it's a turning point for at least a correction. But again, it's been difficult to use normal TA, only biased bullish TA has been working great past weeks. So trying to point out a few objective signs, that might help what the coming moves might be coming days.
On the left, we can see the ABC, again it's the most likely scenario to play out. We can see a small triangle in that "flag", which could help predict the next step. Think if we break down from it, so breaking 10200, prob get a test of 10100. Think 10100 will then just be a formality though. We can see that 10100/10120 is a big level past 2 days. If we break up from that triangle, we could just make another lower high around 10300/340. So below that level, still a chance it drops again. That's why i think, 10400ish is a key level and 10100ish (where subjectively i think its 10200ish).
On the right you can see the lines from the wedge i showed lately, but it's value is become less each day. Looked like it was still real 2 days ago when testing 10100. Now i think best to maybe just ignore them, at least for now.
Trend change might only happen if we see big dumps on alts, up until then, even if we make a decent drop, think we just keep assuming the trend is up. 9650/750 will be a very important level i think, but can't know for sure until we get there. Volume will play a big role here. Until that returns and some volatility, it remains a guessing game.
Still don't dare to show a clear (biased) direction here, been too many random moves lately that come out of nowhere. If i had to gamble, it's an almost easy drop/correction to me, due to bulls slowing down and loosing momentum. But not with a lot of confidence, because alts have been super strong and not confirming that. Think for day/swing traders who went long from the 7/8k's, even 9k's, should be a very easy (at least partial) take profit zone. For the long term holders who don't hedge or scale in and out, don't even wanna be in your shoes now, about making a decision :)
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Previous analysis:
There has been a lot of noise with bitcoin past weeks, but think that is mostly because of the alt season though, which has been seen in the past as well. Only thing now that makes sense to me is the range between 10100 and 10400. Think if 10100ish breaks, the ABC should be in play. If 10400 breaks, then it's prob once again just noise and we could see another attempt to break up.
So far the bull flag target zone has been a turning point or resistance zone. 10400 could become a lower high here, think only a break of 9700ish would put the whole bullish structure in danger. Only if that support breaks, we would have a first lower low again during this rally. Until then, bulls are in favor, despite short term corrections. But Bulls have been loosing momentum when looking at Bitcoin, having a harder time to push higher. But alts have been pumping quite hard lately though which could explain that side again. Something we have not seen since the April 2018, last time alts really outperformed Bitcoin. Also used to see alts pump while Bitcoin was moving sideways/up.
Now i still think that together with the bull flag target zone around current highs, good chance it's a turning point for at least a correction. But again, it's been difficult to use normal TA, only biased bullish TA has been working great past weeks. So trying to point out a few objective signs, that might help what the coming moves might be coming days.
On the left, we can see the ABC, again it's the most likely scenario to play out. We can see a small triangle in that "flag", which could help predict the next step. Think if we break down from it, so breaking 10200, prob get a test of 10100. Think 10100 will then just be a formality though. We can see that 10100/10120 is a big level past 2 days. If we break up from that triangle, we could just make another lower high around 10300/340. So below that level, still a chance it drops again. That's why i think, 10400ish is a key level and 10100ish (where subjectively i think its 10200ish).
On the right you can see the lines from the wedge i showed lately, but it's value is become less each day. Looked like it was still real 2 days ago when testing 10100. Now i think best to maybe just ignore them, at least for now.
Trend change might only happen if we see big dumps on alts, up until then, even if we make a decent drop, think we just keep assuming the trend is up. 9650/750 will be a very important level i think, but can't know for sure until we get there. Volume will play a big role here. Until that returns and some volatility, it remains a guessing game.
Still don't dare to show a clear (biased) direction here, been too many random moves lately that come out of nowhere. If i had to gamble, it's an almost easy drop/correction to me, due to bulls slowing down and loosing momentum. But not with a lot of confidence, because alts have been super strong and not confirming that. Think for day/swing traders who went long from the 7/8k's, even 9k's, should be a very easy (at least partial) take profit zone. For the long term holders who don't hedge or scale in and out, don't even wanna be in your shoes now, about making a decision :)
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
And again, market moves within a few min after my update :o. Anyway, alts took big hits which makes things bit more dangerous now for the market. However, Bitcoin and ETH have still not touched those previous lows. If ETH touches 260ish, think things could get ugly coming week or so. Because then an H&S could be created. If it stays above it, bear traps become very usual. For Bitcoin a similar situation, also can see the 9700 did not get touched, so also still in a "safe" zone. But think as long as price doesnt break 10050/10100, bears are in favor.
If we make a correctional move up coming day or 2, then another drop remains likely. So its a bit sit and wait story now. But we got a bit more info now, with this drop being quite violent and high volume. To me that says bulls need to be very careful coming day or 2.
Think best case for bulls is a small move up coming day or so, then making a higher low around 9900.
Note
ETH is going as planned, looks like the H&S is taking form, but there are some dangers about it though, just mentioned about them somewhere else. For Bitcoin, i would say if it's an H&S, the right shoulder is still too small in time. So we should see some more sideways action coming 24 hours or so. Good chance we see something like a flag being made. So if we go up again, it's very important to see it come back down again and eventually break the 9800 to touch 9700ish. While making this move, it's need to go fast and with volume. Otherwise chances remain for a bear trap. Funding has dropped to zero again, even on ETH almost. We have seen recently that price sometimes rallies again when funding is zero during a bull trend.Note
For both we can see, bears seem to keep pressure here, looks like a curved shape here. Think if those break, we could see happen what i described in the previous update. I won't be able to update much today, but will try if i can.Note
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