I closed my short from the previous post at an average exit of about 6k. We are still in a strong bearish trend, so let me explain why I have started building a long position:
Everything on the Daily time frame shows a well defined bearish trend, So keep looking for good opportunities to open short positions, that being said, the current price has a low R:R for a short, while the R:R for a long position is much better. Any position right now has a high Risk though, just to be clear. Strong risk management is essential at a pivotal moment like this. It is always best to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before opening a large position, and there is no clear sign of a reversal at the moment.
CMF and OBV confirm the bearish price action, and OBV has been in a strong bearish trend since the 19-20k top on Bitcoin. Ichi shows that we are still in a strong, though slowly weakening bearish trend.
So why risk a long position?
OBV is flattening, pushing closer and closer to its downtrend, with price action falling/moving sideways - last time the OBV broke the downtrend was the dead-cat bounce from 6700 - 9k.
Lower time frame Ichi settings using 20.60.120.30 show consolidation toward the kumos, with price action moving above the Tenkan on several time frames now. Weak Bullish TKs on the 30m and 1hr played out with potential for a continuation on the 2hr.
Higher time frames show Price Action has moved far from the Kumo and is consolidating back toward it. Still, this is most likely a bear flag, so I am ready to short/exit my long if necessary.
Open interest has gone flat since the previous test of the 6500 level in April. Short interest should be rising as price declines, and while it has slightly, the overall open interest is no longer confirming the bearish trend.
Things I am watching for to confirm a bullish bounce, at least short term:
CMF to break downtrend, break 0, or at least curve up toward the downtrend.
OBV to break bearish trend - very soon or its invalid
Price action to stay above the Tenkan on 4hr-6hr time frames.
Volume to weaken on price drops
Open interest to stay flat, or rise with price rise. If price starts to fall again and open interest increases the bearish trend continues.
If the short term bullish (and they are only weakly so atm) signs invalidate I would quickly close my position and look for a new bottom area to attempt to build a long.
If this bounce (likely a dead-cat again) confirms I will look for a short entry closer to the daily kumo.
If my suspicion is correct, we will see price find a top between 7400-7800 before it confirms a continuation or reversal.
Everything on the Daily time frame shows a well defined bearish trend, So keep looking for good opportunities to open short positions, that being said, the current price has a low R:R for a short, while the R:R for a long position is much better. Any position right now has a high Risk though, just to be clear. Strong risk management is essential at a pivotal moment like this. It is always best to wait for confirmation of a trend reversal before opening a large position, and there is no clear sign of a reversal at the moment.
CMF and OBV confirm the bearish price action, and OBV has been in a strong bearish trend since the 19-20k top on Bitcoin. Ichi shows that we are still in a strong, though slowly weakening bearish trend.
So why risk a long position?
OBV is flattening, pushing closer and closer to its downtrend, with price action falling/moving sideways - last time the OBV broke the downtrend was the dead-cat bounce from 6700 - 9k.
Lower time frame Ichi settings using 20.60.120.30 show consolidation toward the kumos, with price action moving above the Tenkan on several time frames now. Weak Bullish TKs on the 30m and 1hr played out with potential for a continuation on the 2hr.
Higher time frames show Price Action has moved far from the Kumo and is consolidating back toward it. Still, this is most likely a bear flag, so I am ready to short/exit my long if necessary.
Open interest has gone flat since the previous test of the 6500 level in April. Short interest should be rising as price declines, and while it has slightly, the overall open interest is no longer confirming the bearish trend.
Things I am watching for to confirm a bullish bounce, at least short term:
CMF to break downtrend, break 0, or at least curve up toward the downtrend.
OBV to break bearish trend - very soon or its invalid
Price action to stay above the Tenkan on 4hr-6hr time frames.
Volume to weaken on price drops
Open interest to stay flat, or rise with price rise. If price starts to fall again and open interest increases the bearish trend continues.
If the short term bullish (and they are only weakly so atm) signs invalidate I would quickly close my position and look for a new bottom area to attempt to build a long.
If this bounce (likely a dead-cat again) confirms I will look for a short entry closer to the daily kumo.
If my suspicion is correct, we will see price find a top between 7400-7800 before it confirms a continuation or reversal.
Note
I took profit on this position at 6614, and will look for a retrace, or confirmation of bullish trend to reopen.Note
I have not entered into a new BTC position yet. Still looking at the market to find my next move, Will publish when I do.Note
Check out my new trading idea on ZEN, and my previous ones for context. My followers bought below 0.003 last time and all targets were achieved!twitter.com/NevermoreXBT/status/1014273481339559936
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.