Bitcoin's Big ABC Correction or Trend Change? Part 3
Updated
One big déjà vu, once again! I was not even surprised when i looked on my phone and seeing that dump again. While thinking i can enjoy my Sunday afternoon walk in the sun, because we always see the real action start very late at night on Sunday's. Obviously not this time. A coincidence maybe?, i don't think so. The previous time they did this, was during Christmas, where the volume was low as well. We have seen these moves so many times already, don't think anyone is surprised anymore.
To the TA' part now, have things changed now? They most certainly did. This dump was big and violent again, making the chances quite small for a recovery from the current levels around 3700/3800. So chances are much bigger at the moment for a drop to the 3600/3500 than going back to the 4000 from here. Today's move is quite similar to the one we had in Dec during Christmas, making a similar big drop with a second drop testing the 3600 support levels. Only a move above 3850ish would increase the chances again for the bulls.
Now a big correction was to be expected, i kept mentioning and showing it a few times, but it was hard to say if it would start at 4000 or at 4400. But one thing is for sure, i did not expect a dump like this again. Corrections after a big rally are usually fast and big, but not like this. Would have been normal to see a big drop to like 3900/4000, than a sideways movement before doing another leg down to 3600/3850. Now we simply skipped all the support levels and dumped to levels in one shot. As you can see at the blue line on the left, the ones i showed the past week or so, we could see a right shoulder form now, but that has become less likely now as well. Unless we really see it turning up again from these levels. That would be quite remarkable. I think it's more likely to see a move towards 3850ish and then another drop to the lows and probably even below them, like the purple line is showing.
When zooming out a bit more and look on the left, we can see that thick red line was again rejected again. We even dropped back inside that possible triangle, which is a very bad sign usually. Bad thing now is, it could be that big ABC' i was calling for since the Dec low, is already done. Normally we should have seen it get above the previous high, but it does not always happen. On the other hand, we did have a clear 5 wave move up from the 3350 to the 4200, which is usually bullish. Problem is, this big dump messed up everything making this very confusing and TA' not very useful at this point. So i really need to see what the coming day or two will happen first, to be able to make a better prediction. It's just too soon to say that the whole rally is completely over and that we drop to new lows again.
Only logical thing i can see is this for the coming day or 2:
So it will probably be an important week or two. The 4200 level has become a huge level now. Meaning if the market can get close to it once again, it will probably mean 5K prices, quite sure of that. I don't think it should happen more than 2 weeks. But if we are not able to get close anymore and brake the 3500ish, than we will probably see an attack at the lows again, with all the big dangerous that come with it.
If we see a break of the 3700/3800, i will try to update this, to give a bit more specific direction. Maybe some alts can give us a few signs as well tomorrow.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
To the TA' part now, have things changed now? They most certainly did. This dump was big and violent again, making the chances quite small for a recovery from the current levels around 3700/3800. So chances are much bigger at the moment for a drop to the 3600/3500 than going back to the 4000 from here. Today's move is quite similar to the one we had in Dec during Christmas, making a similar big drop with a second drop testing the 3600 support levels. Only a move above 3850ish would increase the chances again for the bulls.
Now a big correction was to be expected, i kept mentioning and showing it a few times, but it was hard to say if it would start at 4000 or at 4400. But one thing is for sure, i did not expect a dump like this again. Corrections after a big rally are usually fast and big, but not like this. Would have been normal to see a big drop to like 3900/4000, than a sideways movement before doing another leg down to 3600/3850. Now we simply skipped all the support levels and dumped to levels in one shot. As you can see at the blue line on the left, the ones i showed the past week or so, we could see a right shoulder form now, but that has become less likely now as well. Unless we really see it turning up again from these levels. That would be quite remarkable. I think it's more likely to see a move towards 3850ish and then another drop to the lows and probably even below them, like the purple line is showing.
When zooming out a bit more and look on the left, we can see that thick red line was again rejected again. We even dropped back inside that possible triangle, which is a very bad sign usually. Bad thing now is, it could be that big ABC' i was calling for since the Dec low, is already done. Normally we should have seen it get above the previous high, but it does not always happen. On the other hand, we did have a clear 5 wave move up from the 3350 to the 4200, which is usually bullish. Problem is, this big dump messed up everything making this very confusing and TA' not very useful at this point. So i really need to see what the coming day or two will happen first, to be able to make a better prediction. It's just too soon to say that the whole rally is completely over and that we drop to new lows again.
Only logical thing i can see is this for the coming day or 2:
So it will probably be an important week or two. The 4200 level has become a huge level now. Meaning if the market can get close to it once again, it will probably mean 5K prices, quite sure of that. I don't think it should happen more than 2 weeks. But if we are not able to get close anymore and brake the 3500ish, than we will probably see an attack at the lows again, with all the big dangerous that come with it.
If we see a break of the 3700/3800, i will try to update this, to give a bit more specific direction. Maybe some alts can give us a few signs as well tomorrow.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Note
Still following that fractal, now we could see some more sideways action before heading down again towards 3600. If the 3850 breaks, then something else is going onNote
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