Fundamental Analysis for 6-28 (week)
Updated
GBTC term is up and we are expecting selling pressures over the 10 days.
We can also suspect that China is not done selling their bags and harassing their local crypto scene.
Hard resistance at 36k, and Alts are not rebounding much (indicating retail is largely taking a break from Crypto or were burned on the last bounce.)
Price needs to go down to induce new buyers (check out these deals guys!!).
Possible China FUD ⬇, possible regulatory FUD ⬇. General bear market ⬇.
Potential upside for BTC? An Elon Tweet or a whale buy-in???
Whale buyin seems unlikely as returns are low at this point. (Why buy at 35k when you can only potentially make 10%?) Moreover, Microstrategy has already spent their 500million at a loss, buying at $38,000 range with the market going down to $27,000 briefly after. Publicized red from Microstrategy and Tesla, will dissuade other enterprise from considering BTC purchases mid-term.
What we could see this week.
Upside by likelihood:
36K (70%) -> 38k (20%) -> 40k or above (9%) 1% left for miracles.
Downside by likelihood: 30k (40%) -> 28k (40%) -> $26.5 or below (19%) 1% left for tragedies.
No FUD = slowly going up (Mostly western time). Some FUD = quickly going down (Globaly).
Lower highs and higher lows!
This is not trading advise, please trade at your own risk.
We can also suspect that China is not done selling their bags and harassing their local crypto scene.
Hard resistance at 36k, and Alts are not rebounding much (indicating retail is largely taking a break from Crypto or were burned on the last bounce.)
Price needs to go down to induce new buyers (check out these deals guys!!).
Possible China FUD ⬇, possible regulatory FUD ⬇. General bear market ⬇.
Potential upside for BTC? An Elon Tweet or a whale buy-in???
Whale buyin seems unlikely as returns are low at this point. (Why buy at 35k when you can only potentially make 10%?) Moreover, Microstrategy has already spent their 500million at a loss, buying at $38,000 range with the market going down to $27,000 briefly after. Publicized red from Microstrategy and Tesla, will dissuade other enterprise from considering BTC purchases mid-term.
What we could see this week.
Upside by likelihood:
36K (70%) -> 38k (20%) -> 40k or above (9%) 1% left for miracles.Downside by likelihood: 30k (40%) -> 28k (40%) -> $26.5 or below (19%) 1% left for tragedies.
No FUD = slowly going up (Mostly western time). Some FUD = quickly going down (Globaly).
Lower highs and higher lows!
This is not trading advise, please trade at your own risk.
Note
The increase to 36K (longed) and then the following drop to 33k (shorted) works well. There seems to be some resistance at 33k, but to our favor weekends result in people closing positions and lower volume.I think we can still see some more downside for this week.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.