Ten Reasons BTC Sould Hit $155k - $210k This Market Cycle But...
Here's my revised "Potential Path To 150k+" chart, adding in 3 new factors that further point to the higher Fibonacci targets on this chart and potentially hitting 220k Bitcoin.
As the 3.618 accurately predicted the exact market cycle top in 2021 (drawn from the 2018 Hi / Low cycle)...
The same scenario could play out for the 2024 bull cycle, with each of these TEN factors potentially 'igniting' the other smoldering 'fires' into a giant bullish blaze.
Kind of like a good ol California forest fire. When the smaller fires meet, the blaze begins.
The following TEN factors show 3 potential levels for Bitcoin upside in 2024, which I've labeled as 3 scenarios described in more detail below (Likely, Probably and Possible).
1. BlackRock & Fidelity ETF's Approval - (Slated for this week by January 10th - 95% chance)).
2. QE Money Printing To Pay Down US Debt - (The US rising debt levels require easing soon).
3. Bank Failures, Bank Runs & Transfer Into BTC - (More bank failures are likely. BTFP ending).
4. Hyperinflation & De-Dollarization (BRICS) - (We haven't seen effects yet, but still brewing).
5. Corporate Accumulation - MSTR / Apple /Tesla - (MSTR raising 750M Common Stock for BTC).
6. Country Accumulation (New Reserve Currency) - (More will follow El Salvador this cycle).
7. Post-Halving Less Bitcoin Miner Selling (12B) - (Miners will have less to sell > 2024 halving).
8. Less Available BTC On Exchanges - (More retail wallets will creasing demand / supply shock).
9. Increasing Political Support For Bitcoin - (Politicians joining the narrative will push in favor).
10. Bursting of the Sovereign Debt Bubble - (35T of COVID money globally straining global economies).
Any ONE of these and likely the ETF approvals could and will be the needed 'spark' that ignites this Bitcoin forest fire, which will never be put out and only grow.
I've broken these down into 3 scenarios...
Likely Target (100k) - Bitcoin was widely 'expected' to hit 100k in the last cycle, and the math supports the reasons why. With 20T+ in investable assets in Gold + Silver + US Real Estate in 2023, just 10% of this moved over to Bitcoin gives BTC a 2T market cap alone. It's also the 1.618 Fib target for the next cycle as shown.
Probable Target (155k) - Looking at the bars pattern from the Oct 19th 2020 breakout, we can see a rapid rise in Bitcoin followed, driving price up to the April 2021 initial high for BTC. This also coincides with the 2.618 Fibonacci target on the charts.
Possible Target (210k) - Again looking at the last cycle drop starting in Dec 2017, to the low in
Dec 2018, the 3.618 Fib target was exactly where the peak around 64K in April 2021.
Many believe this to be true 'high' although later we had a Wyckoff 'Thrust' higher to 69k.
In the near term, the bars patterns also shows confluence for a pause right at the Fib Golden Pocket between 48K and 50k. Since round numbers act as market magnets, I feel 50k is the next push higher before a meaningful profit taking pullback.
Also notable is the 21 week MA which has been an excellent support / resistance barometer over the years, and price has just firmly broken above that in recent weeks.
So this is looking very bullish to me here, and I'm expecting we go higher...
Time will tell if one or more of these scenarios come to pass!
But I've also added 3 potential negative scenarios (and may add a 4th) which may pour water on this fire from the start, and are unknowns worth noting.
1. It's the First Ever Macro Global Recession for Bitcoin (Could a US recession drag this down?)
2. Still Small Possibility of ETF Delay or Not Approved Yet (This would cause a massive sell-off)
3. Spot ETF's May Mark a Market Top Like in Previous Cycles (No way to know the ETF effect).
And here's a notiable #4 not yet on the chart...
4. Issues With BTFP Expiration Causing Bank Failures (Forcing the Fed to start dropping rates).
When the Fed actually starts Dropping Rates, markets usually go down initially...
See the excellent article Arthur Hays recently put out detailing this scenario.
What do you think will happen this week and into the Halving??
As the 3.618 accurately predicted the exact market cycle top in 2021 (drawn from the 2018 Hi / Low cycle)...
The same scenario could play out for the 2024 bull cycle, with each of these TEN factors potentially 'igniting' the other smoldering 'fires' into a giant bullish blaze.
Kind of like a good ol California forest fire. When the smaller fires meet, the blaze begins.
The following TEN factors show 3 potential levels for Bitcoin upside in 2024, which I've labeled as 3 scenarios described in more detail below (Likely, Probably and Possible).
1. BlackRock & Fidelity ETF's Approval - (Slated for this week by January 10th - 95% chance)).
2. QE Money Printing To Pay Down US Debt - (The US rising debt levels require easing soon).
3. Bank Failures, Bank Runs & Transfer Into BTC - (More bank failures are likely. BTFP ending).
4. Hyperinflation & De-Dollarization (BRICS) - (We haven't seen effects yet, but still brewing).
5. Corporate Accumulation - MSTR / Apple /Tesla - (MSTR raising 750M Common Stock for BTC).
6. Country Accumulation (New Reserve Currency) - (More will follow El Salvador this cycle).
7. Post-Halving Less Bitcoin Miner Selling (12B) - (Miners will have less to sell > 2024 halving).
8. Less Available BTC On Exchanges - (More retail wallets will creasing demand / supply shock).
9. Increasing Political Support For Bitcoin - (Politicians joining the narrative will push in favor).
10. Bursting of the Sovereign Debt Bubble - (35T of COVID money globally straining global economies).
Any ONE of these and likely the ETF approvals could and will be the needed 'spark' that ignites this Bitcoin forest fire, which will never be put out and only grow.
I've broken these down into 3 scenarios...
Likely Target (100k) - Bitcoin was widely 'expected' to hit 100k in the last cycle, and the math supports the reasons why. With 20T+ in investable assets in Gold + Silver + US Real Estate in 2023, just 10% of this moved over to Bitcoin gives BTC a 2T market cap alone. It's also the 1.618 Fib target for the next cycle as shown.
Probable Target (155k) - Looking at the bars pattern from the Oct 19th 2020 breakout, we can see a rapid rise in Bitcoin followed, driving price up to the April 2021 initial high for BTC. This also coincides with the 2.618 Fibonacci target on the charts.
Possible Target (210k) - Again looking at the last cycle drop starting in Dec 2017, to the low in
Dec 2018, the 3.618 Fib target was exactly where the peak around 64K in April 2021.
Many believe this to be true 'high' although later we had a Wyckoff 'Thrust' higher to 69k.
In the near term, the bars patterns also shows confluence for a pause right at the Fib Golden Pocket between 48K and 50k. Since round numbers act as market magnets, I feel 50k is the next push higher before a meaningful profit taking pullback.
Also notable is the 21 week MA which has been an excellent support / resistance barometer over the years, and price has just firmly broken above that in recent weeks.
So this is looking very bullish to me here, and I'm expecting we go higher...
Time will tell if one or more of these scenarios come to pass!
But I've also added 3 potential negative scenarios (and may add a 4th) which may pour water on this fire from the start, and are unknowns worth noting.
1. It's the First Ever Macro Global Recession for Bitcoin (Could a US recession drag this down?)
2. Still Small Possibility of ETF Delay or Not Approved Yet (This would cause a massive sell-off)
3. Spot ETF's May Mark a Market Top Like in Previous Cycles (No way to know the ETF effect).
And here's a notiable #4 not yet on the chart...
4. Issues With BTFP Expiration Causing Bank Failures (Forcing the Fed to start dropping rates).
When the Fed actually starts Dropping Rates, markets usually go down initially...
See the excellent article Arthur Hays recently put out detailing this scenario.
What do you think will happen this week and into the Halving??
25-year investor & trader, bought 1st BTC at $20
More information:
Moonstream Crypto: moonstream.io
M3 Active Trader: Moonstream.io/M3
Trading Signals: CryptoMastery.org/pro
Work With Me 1:1
moonstream.io/work-with-me
More information:
Moonstream Crypto: moonstream.io
M3 Active Trader: Moonstream.io/M3
Trading Signals: CryptoMastery.org/pro
Work With Me 1:1
moonstream.io/work-with-me
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