AT CryptoScan - Bitcoin Analysis, Paralysis & Perhaps-it-is!
Updated
There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin, with many views and some with strong evidence. Here is my own version of how I see Bitcoin moving over the next couple of months. Honestly, it is going to be without doubt volatile, surprising and just doing what it wants for so many reasons that could appear.
MACD Signal Crossovers
The log chart shows BTCUSD since September 2020. Since earlier, and rathe consistently, there is a high probability when the MACD signal line crosses over the zero line that BTCUSD prices tend to trend upwards. Two very clear time points are highlighted here, 8 October 2020 and 27 July 2021 (white time line marked). It is also during this time that a few buy signals were generated, and this alignment would have generated a neat entry.
The other crossing of the MACD Signal line are marked out, and noted that when there is a Buy or Sell signal (customized plethora of conditions) generated, there is some decent level of accuracy.
Gann Box time lines
From another perspective, the Gann Box was used in an attempt to measure the trending time lines from a unique aspect. Noted that there is a number of astrological cycles associated to Bitcoin price movement, and these have been assessed to be rather accurate in retrospect and also over the last two years in tracking and projecting. Hence, Gann Box is one technical way used to do some level of reliable projections. Noted that a peculiar pattern where when the Gann Box is mapped from the last high to the last low, from time 0 to 0.25 on the time axis, Bitcoin typically ends its consolidation phase about and after the 0.75 time mark of the Gann Box, and starts moving in trend.
This was done for April to May 2021, and the projected time line was 27 July 2021. Coincidentally, or otherwise, the MACD Signal crossover also occured about the same time (Green up arrow on MACD).
In the next most recent example, it was similarly done for 9 Nov 2021 high to 24 Jan 2022 low, and the projected 0.75 time line was 26 June 2022. Again, we see that the low was registered on 20 June 2020. For this time, the MACD Signal line crossover took a month.
Further to that, if we took the end March 2020 high, to the 20 June 2020 low, the next immediate 0.75 time line is on 30 November 2022.
TD Sequential
This is a rather unique indicator. Created as a true masterpiece by Thomas Demark in his series of books, but IMHO the easier read of the intricate indicator is in a more recent book by Jason Perl. I just use the TD Setup basically, but it is not shown in the chart as it would clutter too much details. In any case, the previous two TD Setups (of 9 sequential candles) are marked by the red rectangles, which denote a down trend. The opposing bullish trend Setup (known as the Sell Setup) needs to be completed above the high of the previous master down trend setup. This level is marked by the horizontal green dashed line, known as the (daily) TDST.
The story here is that over the next week or so, the current Setup in progress needs to clear above the TDST. Something that does not appear likely. WHICH brings back the down trend in play, and this should target about 20K for BTCUSD by the end of August.
Furthermore, the MACD (signal) crossover appears weak and undecided, like in Feb and April 2022.
Customized MoneyFlowIndex
In the lowest panel, is a customized RSI based Money Flow Index hybrid indicator. If there is anything at all, it appears that a breakout happens when the blue line crossover the orange line, but also when both are above 0. The current situation appears to suggest that the cake is not fully baked.
Taken together, all these suggest and indicate that there is some downside volatility left, although limited, before the real bull run in Bitcoin takes place. IF this is the case, then there is some time till perhaps end November to plan our entries. We need to do these projections, plans and executions; only then would real things happen. Much work is done before the battle!
Take care and please feel free to share your feedback. I may/may not be right, but I am sure happy to discuss more and we can learn well from each other!
Thanks for keeping up with this analysis...
MACD Signal Crossovers
The log chart shows BTCUSD since September 2020. Since earlier, and rathe consistently, there is a high probability when the MACD signal line crosses over the zero line that BTCUSD prices tend to trend upwards. Two very clear time points are highlighted here, 8 October 2020 and 27 July 2021 (white time line marked). It is also during this time that a few buy signals were generated, and this alignment would have generated a neat entry.
The other crossing of the MACD Signal line are marked out, and noted that when there is a Buy or Sell signal (customized plethora of conditions) generated, there is some decent level of accuracy.
Gann Box time lines
From another perspective, the Gann Box was used in an attempt to measure the trending time lines from a unique aspect. Noted that there is a number of astrological cycles associated to Bitcoin price movement, and these have been assessed to be rather accurate in retrospect and also over the last two years in tracking and projecting. Hence, Gann Box is one technical way used to do some level of reliable projections. Noted that a peculiar pattern where when the Gann Box is mapped from the last high to the last low, from time 0 to 0.25 on the time axis, Bitcoin typically ends its consolidation phase about and after the 0.75 time mark of the Gann Box, and starts moving in trend.
This was done for April to May 2021, and the projected time line was 27 July 2021. Coincidentally, or otherwise, the MACD Signal crossover also occured about the same time (Green up arrow on MACD).
In the next most recent example, it was similarly done for 9 Nov 2021 high to 24 Jan 2022 low, and the projected 0.75 time line was 26 June 2022. Again, we see that the low was registered on 20 June 2020. For this time, the MACD Signal line crossover took a month.
Further to that, if we took the end March 2020 high, to the 20 June 2020 low, the next immediate 0.75 time line is on 30 November 2022.
TD Sequential
This is a rather unique indicator. Created as a true masterpiece by Thomas Demark in his series of books, but IMHO the easier read of the intricate indicator is in a more recent book by Jason Perl. I just use the TD Setup basically, but it is not shown in the chart as it would clutter too much details. In any case, the previous two TD Setups (of 9 sequential candles) are marked by the red rectangles, which denote a down trend. The opposing bullish trend Setup (known as the Sell Setup) needs to be completed above the high of the previous master down trend setup. This level is marked by the horizontal green dashed line, known as the (daily) TDST.
The story here is that over the next week or so, the current Setup in progress needs to clear above the TDST. Something that does not appear likely. WHICH brings back the down trend in play, and this should target about 20K for BTCUSD by the end of August.
Furthermore, the MACD (signal) crossover appears weak and undecided, like in Feb and April 2022.
Customized MoneyFlowIndex
In the lowest panel, is a customized RSI based Money Flow Index hybrid indicator. If there is anything at all, it appears that a breakout happens when the blue line crossover the orange line, but also when both are above 0. The current situation appears to suggest that the cake is not fully baked.
Taken together, all these suggest and indicate that there is some downside volatility left, although limited, before the real bull run in Bitcoin takes place. IF this is the case, then there is some time till perhaps end November to plan our entries. We need to do these projections, plans and executions; only then would real things happen. Much work is done before the battle!
Take care and please feel free to share your feedback. I may/may not be right, but I am sure happy to discuss more and we can learn well from each other!
Thanks for keeping up with this analysis...
Note
Downside target hit!!!Still downward looking...
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