Bitcoin ABC correction first or still Bullish
Just going to post my messages from yesterday here and will add some new thoughts below:
Still only thing i have for now. 11.100 didn't hold but it mostly just wicked below it. Also can see the 11.400 has held so far, but since yesterday it looks like a triangle is being made. So as long as 11.100ish holds, we could still see that move up.
To me the ABC is still the most likely option here, but must say, ETH is not really showing the same picture. Unless, if Bitcoin goes up to the 11.600/800 and ETH lags, that it could show the same picture.
So, as long as 11.100ish holds (rather at the moment don't even wanna see it drop below 11.200ish anymore), than either another rally, but i think the ABC is more likely (so like 11.600/800 and drop towards 10.500).
For now, would say an ABC is very likely. So we should see a wave down again at some point. Ideal point would be below the first red, so around 11400, but when are things ideal. So would guess, maybe like 11700/800 and then dump again.
But think 11.100ish has to hold
Here we can see, the short term range seems to be 11320ish and 11150ish, levels of the triangle that need to break. Past days we had some big wicks to around 10950, so that should be a key level. If that breaks, good chance it drops even more
Eth looks a bit more bearish short term. Here support seems to be around 388 and resistance around 394. The key resistance seems to be around 398, if that breaks, it should go up even more (red zone on the left).
Why it looks kinda bearish short term, is that uptrend line on the left. It's staying very close to it past day or so, which isn't great of course. Bulls need to make it bounce up from that support.
if it breaks down, but doesn't dump and goes sideways (blue line), then it could still go up after a day or 2. But think 4H candle closes need to stay above 380ish for that
Things are already weakening, think Bitcoin might have a backup plan. See it already dropped below, but maybe candle close could still get above it though. If it drops much more, then i don't know. Then it could be the 11450 was already wave B for the ABC, which normally is way too low after such a big/strong rally.
Yes I know, this is a possible bearish h&s, but after such a strong rally of this whole market, just isn’t likely to see the market drop again. Even if the market turns bearish, more likely to still see it stay above the 10k/10.5 for a few weeks longer. If you might remember the h&s that many started to show at the 5500/4800 a year ago after the 4200 broke. That one was much easier to judge that it would be a bear trap. Because the market came from very low prices. This one is a bit similar, but 11k is not be same as 5k and the market already rallied much more past months. But still, just not likely to see it’s target get reached, which is just below 10k. Think the back up plan I described above, is still holding and should hold. ETH is also pushing, barely holding the 380ish. So market needs to bounce up soon, otherwise could see 10800osh getting tested as well
So now the live update:
So the backup plan it is then, wedge playing out perfectly, target already reached here as well around the previous high at 9450ish. ETH also broke the 398ish.
think now ideally we see somekind of flag formation coming half day or so, maybe just a few hours and then see another push up.
Now this push up was around 350 points (11.100-11.450). So, since the question is, are we moving towards 10600/800 to complete wave B and dump or is this still just the bull rally. A clue can be, if we see the next push being clearly smaller than 350 points, so stalling at like 10500/600, then there is a good chance it's wave B. Assuming the breakout level will be around 11400, so in bull scenario should be around 11750 to keep the similar strength. So anything below gives the ABC a chance. For now it's just wait and see.
We can also see that earlier today the yesterday mentioned 11320 did it's work, price flagged there a bit and now this push up. So i would say, BTC has to stay above that level now.
Another good clue could be, assuming we don't just shoot straight through the 10800ish. Is seeing something like the blue line, so going up and then going sideways for a while in a tight range. Then the ABC is probably wrong and we should then continue to rally. If we see something like the red line, then the ABC is more likely, retesting the 10800/10000 zone.
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Previous analysis:
Still only thing i have for now. 11.100 didn't hold but it mostly just wicked below it. Also can see the 11.400 has held so far, but since yesterday it looks like a triangle is being made. So as long as 11.100ish holds, we could still see that move up.
To me the ABC is still the most likely option here, but must say, ETH is not really showing the same picture. Unless, if Bitcoin goes up to the 11.600/800 and ETH lags, that it could show the same picture.
So, as long as 11.100ish holds (rather at the moment don't even wanna see it drop below 11.200ish anymore), than either another rally, but i think the ABC is more likely (so like 11.600/800 and drop towards 10.500).
For now, would say an ABC is very likely. So we should see a wave down again at some point. Ideal point would be below the first red, so around 11400, but when are things ideal. So would guess, maybe like 11700/800 and then dump again.
But think 11.100ish has to hold
Here we can see, the short term range seems to be 11320ish and 11150ish, levels of the triangle that need to break. Past days we had some big wicks to around 10950, so that should be a key level. If that breaks, good chance it drops even more
Eth looks a bit more bearish short term. Here support seems to be around 388 and resistance around 394. The key resistance seems to be around 398, if that breaks, it should go up even more (red zone on the left).
Why it looks kinda bearish short term, is that uptrend line on the left. It's staying very close to it past day or so, which isn't great of course. Bulls need to make it bounce up from that support.
if it breaks down, but doesn't dump and goes sideways (blue line), then it could still go up after a day or 2. But think 4H candle closes need to stay above 380ish for that
Things are already weakening, think Bitcoin might have a backup plan. See it already dropped below, but maybe candle close could still get above it though. If it drops much more, then i don't know. Then it could be the 11450 was already wave B for the ABC, which normally is way too low after such a big/strong rally.
Yes I know, this is a possible bearish h&s, but after such a strong rally of this whole market, just isn’t likely to see the market drop again. Even if the market turns bearish, more likely to still see it stay above the 10k/10.5 for a few weeks longer. If you might remember the h&s that many started to show at the 5500/4800 a year ago after the 4200 broke. That one was much easier to judge that it would be a bear trap. Because the market came from very low prices. This one is a bit similar, but 11k is not be same as 5k and the market already rallied much more past months. But still, just not likely to see it’s target get reached, which is just below 10k. Think the back up plan I described above, is still holding and should hold. ETH is also pushing, barely holding the 380ish. So market needs to bounce up soon, otherwise could see 10800osh getting tested as well
So now the live update:
So the backup plan it is then, wedge playing out perfectly, target already reached here as well around the previous high at 9450ish. ETH also broke the 398ish.
think now ideally we see somekind of flag formation coming half day or so, maybe just a few hours and then see another push up.
Now this push up was around 350 points (11.100-11.450). So, since the question is, are we moving towards 10600/800 to complete wave B and dump or is this still just the bull rally. A clue can be, if we see the next push being clearly smaller than 350 points, so stalling at like 10500/600, then there is a good chance it's wave B. Assuming the breakout level will be around 11400, so in bull scenario should be around 11750 to keep the similar strength. So anything below gives the ABC a chance. For now it's just wait and see.
We can also see that earlier today the yesterday mentioned 11320 did it's work, price flagged there a bit and now this push up. So i would say, BTC has to stay above that level now.
Another good clue could be, assuming we don't just shoot straight through the 10800ish. Is seeing something like the blue line, so going up and then going sideways for a while in a tight range. Then the ABC is probably wrong and we should then continue to rally. If we see something like the red line, then the ABC is more likely, retesting the 10800/10000 zone.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
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