$BTC Linear Regression Analysis
Updated
BTC:1D (1 year look-back period)
BTC currently hovering around its linear mean price point of 45.6K in anticipation of SEC approval or delay tomorrow.
Current linear range at standard deviation up and down is roughly 50.9K to 40.5K. Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high at 0.96, implying a high tendency for price to centralize around the linear mean.
The upward trend from October has been extremely strong. It should be noted that maintaining trend strength at these elevated levels of Pearson’s R^2 for any extended periods of time (6 months or more) is highly unlikely.
Bearish price to RSI divergence is present (yellow lines) and would require a move above 83 on the 1D RSI to invalidate.
At a minimum a move down to the 38K region over the course of the next few weeks seems like a very reasonable proposal. This assumes that price has baked in the ETF approval and that a rejection/delay by the SEC could portend even further downside risk which could eventually place enough pressure on the above linear regression channel to either weaken it significantly or, in the event of a hard selloff, to shatter it completely.
Not financial advice.
BTC currently hovering around its linear mean price point of 45.6K in anticipation of SEC approval or delay tomorrow. Current linear range at standard deviation up and down is roughly 50.9K to 40.5K. Pearson’s R^2 is extremely high at 0.96, implying a high tendency for price to centralize around the linear mean.
The upward trend from October has been extremely strong. It should be noted that maintaining trend strength at these elevated levels of Pearson’s R^2 for any extended periods of time (6 months or more) is highly unlikely.
Bearish price to RSI divergence is present (yellow lines) and would require a move above 83 on the 1D RSI to invalidate.
At a minimum a move down to the 38K region over the course of the next few weeks seems like a very reasonable proposal. This assumes that price has baked in the ETF approval and that a rejection/delay by the SEC could portend even further downside risk which could eventually place enough pressure on the above linear regression channel to either weaken it significantly or, in the event of a hard selloff, to shatter it completely.
Not financial advice.
Note
First target hit has BTC has reached the 38K region as described above and within the allowable timeframe.Trade closed: target reached
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