Structure has held 100% from part one. We seem to be creating a SOW (Sign of Weakness)
So what is next for us? There are three potential paths we need to monitor. All three scenarios are just based on structure and not price action or time. It is just there as a representation.
1) The Yellow Line represents the price potentially going back up to LPSY(Last Point Of Supply), coming back down to the SOW and then breaking down into a down trend where we start looking for the Bullish Wyckoff Schematic.
2) The Red Line represents price breaking down without going up to the LPSY. This could take a while potentially a week or two to play out. We will then look for the Bullish Accumulation Schematic.
3) The Green Line represents a possibility that we could be in a type accumulation. If this is the case we could be hanging around here for a long time before any significant move up. We could see a type of spring move as well.
I know this does not make anything clear and its almost like a Crypto influencer saying it can go up, down and sideways but here is the likely scenario I see happening.
I can not see BTC doing the green line right now, we might see sideways and then another leg down because the chart on the monthly is starting to form divergences. Price according to the Phoenix indicators suggests that price can be lower.
This leads us to the two more viable options in my opinion. The red and the yellow will both have some sort of downward movement. What is the Phoenix Indicators saying about this?
2 Week: The Green Line on the indicator indicates that price should be on the white Bollinger Band with price action. The two RSI's are also just below 70 which indicates that price does the have the potential to reach there which is around 63k - 66k. Realistically speaking I can not see price action moving that fast downwards in the next 2 weeks. A more suitable price range will be in combination with the 3 week where it could be lower 70's.
3 Week: The lowest potential as of now is 74k. The only catch here is that the RSI's are not below 70 which means that price should not be that low as of right now. This could change with lower timeframes coming into play.
Lower Time Frames: Such as the Weekly are showing signs of a pause in the downward movement giving a little more evidence that we will not see a drop in the "next hour" and that we can take a step back to assess what is happening so that we can make smart decisions with our money. This shown by the normal RSI almost below 30 and that price action is correct on the Phoenix indicators. If both RSI's fall below 50 then we can see expansion downward.
I will try update as time goes along to see which path is followed.
Remain Adaptable and Open Minded.
So what is next for us? There are three potential paths we need to monitor. All three scenarios are just based on structure and not price action or time. It is just there as a representation.
1) The Yellow Line represents the price potentially going back up to LPSY(Last Point Of Supply), coming back down to the SOW and then breaking down into a down trend where we start looking for the Bullish Wyckoff Schematic.
2) The Red Line represents price breaking down without going up to the LPSY. This could take a while potentially a week or two to play out. We will then look for the Bullish Accumulation Schematic.
3) The Green Line represents a possibility that we could be in a type accumulation. If this is the case we could be hanging around here for a long time before any significant move up. We could see a type of spring move as well.
I know this does not make anything clear and its almost like a Crypto influencer saying it can go up, down and sideways but here is the likely scenario I see happening.
I can not see BTC doing the green line right now, we might see sideways and then another leg down because the chart on the monthly is starting to form divergences. Price according to the Phoenix indicators suggests that price can be lower.
This leads us to the two more viable options in my opinion. The red and the yellow will both have some sort of downward movement. What is the Phoenix Indicators saying about this?
2 Week: The Green Line on the indicator indicates that price should be on the white Bollinger Band with price action. The two RSI's are also just below 70 which indicates that price does the have the potential to reach there which is around 63k - 66k. Realistically speaking I can not see price action moving that fast downwards in the next 2 weeks. A more suitable price range will be in combination with the 3 week where it could be lower 70's.
3 Week: The lowest potential as of now is 74k. The only catch here is that the RSI's are not below 70 which means that price should not be that low as of right now. This could change with lower timeframes coming into play.
Lower Time Frames: Such as the Weekly are showing signs of a pause in the downward movement giving a little more evidence that we will not see a drop in the "next hour" and that we can take a step back to assess what is happening so that we can make smart decisions with our money. This shown by the normal RSI almost below 30 and that price action is correct on the Phoenix indicators. If both RSI's fall below 50 then we can see expansion downward.
I will try update as time goes along to see which path is followed.
Remain Adaptable and Open Minded.
Note
Option one is on the table and was clear once we started moving up to the LPSY. If you were sharp, you might have been able to put a short in. Next step is going down to the SOW area.
I would keep tomorrows crypto summit at the white house in the back of my mind. So put in your stop losses in profit/break even area.
Trade closed: target reached
Congrats to the people that followed into the SOW area. You potentially made 10% money going up to the LPSY and then another 10% going down to the SOW area again. The leg up to the LPSY was a difficult one to jump into, so do not be hard on yourself. A short was guaranteed money in your pocket.
Next thing to look at is a move downwards as stated above or a type of range in this area.
Stay adaptable and open minded.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.