Bitcoin Bullish Wedge or Retest Former Up Trend, Part 2
This is a follow up on the previous analysis, so continuing the updates here.
The 9340ish held a bit too precise if you ask me. Normally we see like a tiny high leveraged shake out wick, but maybe it means nothing. The flags i draw are of course not completely random, they are based on a certain %, but even the flag is shaping a bit very precise here.
When zooming inside of the flag, can't say it looks great, but on higher time frame it's pretty clear so far. I see that alts made quite a jump up past hours, which could explain the the slightly strange movement of Bitcoin. Bitcoin almost always moves bit weird when people exchange bitcoin for alts (so when alts rally).
Normally for a flag, we should see another leg down, could be a higher low, could be a lower low. The lower low is often also a shake out wick, why i have drawn it below the flag, but it's all guessing unfortunately. So think below 9200 the flag is out of play.
This chart here below, think i showed it week ago here. That red line, was a random line IMO when i drew it. A typical subjective trend line, but now it seems to be pretty real, price bounced up twice from that level. That channel (or bull flag), was not that random and also seems to be real. I have added that channel in the chart above as well now on the right.
Now hope you can see, that it looks like the 9300ish is THE key level here. The primary chart you can see on the left that the black trend line had several breaks up and down through it. Not just a straight line through it, but after it breaks you can see some wicks against it, making the trend line very real to me. Now that bull flag i added which i mentioned above, also shows that it is getting tested as support now and ALSO showing the 9300ish being an important level. The bull flag i mentioned above also shows a max of around 9300.
For the bears, i would be very careful still. Any breakout up can fail of course, but we can see that the alts are very strong at the moment. Alts rallying have been traps many times in the past as well, but it's slightly more often in favor of the bulls. So it's never a big sign anymore to me (seen too many traps), but should not be ignored.
So in summary, we have a small breakout here above the 9300ish. But we are still moving below the red zone of 9600ish. Bitcoin needs a touch of 9700ish to be more confident of a break upwards. But would say, as long as we do not see a fast dump below 9300 (maybe to be safe 9200), bulls are in favor here. So think a fast high volume drop below 9300 would give a small bull trap confirmation and think below 9100 would be an even bigger confirmation.
So based on the above, i would say, that as long as we move above the 9300, bulls are in full control here. If they hold it and break the 9600ish (as i described in my previous analysis, read it), we should see a break of 10K. Also not to forget, we have a higher low for Bitcoin around 8600 (from few days ago). Also have the lower high around 9900 from a week ago (you can see it as a triangle). So i do think that if we get that drop, it still only short term in favor of the bears. We should then see some more bearish movement, but as i described in a previous analysis (weekly chart, added it below), as long as we don't see a big dump below 7500ish), it can still be considered as a healthy correction for the bulls.
Before i forget, if we would break up above 9600/9700, doesn't mean we should necessarily pump in a straight line (normally should though), but it should at least NOT drop back below 9600/500 after a break of that think red line.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
The 9340ish held a bit too precise if you ask me. Normally we see like a tiny high leveraged shake out wick, but maybe it means nothing. The flags i draw are of course not completely random, they are based on a certain %, but even the flag is shaping a bit very precise here.
When zooming inside of the flag, can't say it looks great, but on higher time frame it's pretty clear so far. I see that alts made quite a jump up past hours, which could explain the the slightly strange movement of Bitcoin. Bitcoin almost always moves bit weird when people exchange bitcoin for alts (so when alts rally).
Normally for a flag, we should see another leg down, could be a higher low, could be a lower low. The lower low is often also a shake out wick, why i have drawn it below the flag, but it's all guessing unfortunately. So think below 9200 the flag is out of play.
This chart here below, think i showed it week ago here. That red line, was a random line IMO when i drew it. A typical subjective trend line, but now it seems to be pretty real, price bounced up twice from that level. That channel (or bull flag), was not that random and also seems to be real. I have added that channel in the chart above as well now on the right.
Now hope you can see, that it looks like the 9300ish is THE key level here. The primary chart you can see on the left that the black trend line had several breaks up and down through it. Not just a straight line through it, but after it breaks you can see some wicks against it, making the trend line very real to me. Now that bull flag i added which i mentioned above, also shows that it is getting tested as support now and ALSO showing the 9300ish being an important level. The bull flag i mentioned above also shows a max of around 9300.
For the bears, i would be very careful still. Any breakout up can fail of course, but we can see that the alts are very strong at the moment. Alts rallying have been traps many times in the past as well, but it's slightly more often in favor of the bulls. So it's never a big sign anymore to me (seen too many traps), but should not be ignored.
So in summary, we have a small breakout here above the 9300ish. But we are still moving below the red zone of 9600ish. Bitcoin needs a touch of 9700ish to be more confident of a break upwards. But would say, as long as we do not see a fast dump below 9300 (maybe to be safe 9200), bulls are in favor here. So think a fast high volume drop below 9300 would give a small bull trap confirmation and think below 9100 would be an even bigger confirmation.
So based on the above, i would say, that as long as we move above the 9300, bulls are in full control here. If they hold it and break the 9600ish (as i described in my previous analysis, read it), we should see a break of 10K. Also not to forget, we have a higher low for Bitcoin around 8600 (from few days ago). Also have the lower high around 9900 from a week ago (you can see it as a triangle). So i do think that if we get that drop, it still only short term in favor of the bears. We should then see some more bearish movement, but as i described in a previous analysis (weekly chart, added it below), as long as we don't see a big dump below 7500ish), it can still be considered as a healthy correction for the bulls.
Before i forget, if we would break up above 9600/9700, doesn't mean we should necessarily pump in a straight line (normally should though), but it should at least NOT drop back below 9600/500 after a break of that think red line.
Don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.