Hi All,
Once again, welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show. If you are looking at my post, congratulations, you have just got yourself into a “Taiwan bear trap” LOL……(silence)
So, is BTC going down? No – it’s not going down. It’s just a retrace like I have been saying since the recent dip. Instead of giving you two directions which I would normally do, I told you that I think the dip is over (short-term). While many traders are still waiting for confirmations I have closed more than half of my positions with 21-33% profits. The price hit my short-term target and I took the profit, even if the price could still go up more. If you have followed me closely, I told you to close some ETC positions when the price hit $19.5. That was my target and I will wait for a rebuy around the price range $17-$18.3. Was I regret that the price went above $19.5? Certainly not. I just made 33% profits in less than 48 hours.
The way I trade is that I find the pattern & the trend in a larger time frame (weeks, months & even years). Then I identify & analyse possible Fibonacci reference points/levels, again, from a larger time frame (years) to a smaller time frame (days & hours). If more than 2x Fibonacci levels overlap each other, the likelihood of they being a strong support is high. This is the kind of level that I would place my buy position and set my SL below the next fib level. This way, allows me to have a risk/reward ratio of 2 to 5+, sometimes even 10+. If you have seen my previous post on EUR/USD pair, that was a trade with a risk/reward ratio of 10+. Hence, you won’t be panicked even if the trend reverse unexpectedly and you would still make nice profits even if the trend does reverse.
I have now identified an overall pattern for the BTC from 1st Dec 17 all the way to 16th Apr 18. In order to identify this pattern, I have taken Fibonacci levels, long term trendline, the downtrend channel as well as the psychology of whales into account. Psychology of whales? You might think I am crazy……well, when BTC surged from $8400 to $9800, how many traders out there called the bear flag like I did, before the bear flag became apparent?
Right now, BTC is heading towards my target just the way I expected. I might not predict the bouncing between the fib retrace levels & timing correctly as it is certainly not easy. However, if you are not a day trader you should still benefit from my initial buy target and my ultimate sell target. But if you are a professional day trader, I would suggest you to also follow @PRO_Indicators.
- To be continued below -
Once again, welcome to the Taiwan Bear talk show. If you are looking at my post, congratulations, you have just got yourself into a “Taiwan bear trap” LOL……(silence)
So, is BTC going down? No – it’s not going down. It’s just a retrace like I have been saying since the recent dip. Instead of giving you two directions which I would normally do, I told you that I think the dip is over (short-term). While many traders are still waiting for confirmations I have closed more than half of my positions with 21-33% profits. The price hit my short-term target and I took the profit, even if the price could still go up more. If you have followed me closely, I told you to close some ETC positions when the price hit $19.5. That was my target and I will wait for a rebuy around the price range $17-$18.3. Was I regret that the price went above $19.5? Certainly not. I just made 33% profits in less than 48 hours.
The way I trade is that I find the pattern & the trend in a larger time frame (weeks, months & even years). Then I identify & analyse possible Fibonacci reference points/levels, again, from a larger time frame (years) to a smaller time frame (days & hours). If more than 2x Fibonacci levels overlap each other, the likelihood of they being a strong support is high. This is the kind of level that I would place my buy position and set my SL below the next fib level. This way, allows me to have a risk/reward ratio of 2 to 5+, sometimes even 10+. If you have seen my previous post on EUR/USD pair, that was a trade with a risk/reward ratio of 10+. Hence, you won’t be panicked even if the trend reverse unexpectedly and you would still make nice profits even if the trend does reverse.
I have now identified an overall pattern for the BTC from 1st Dec 17 all the way to 16th Apr 18. In order to identify this pattern, I have taken Fibonacci levels, long term trendline, the downtrend channel as well as the psychology of whales into account. Psychology of whales? You might think I am crazy……well, when BTC surged from $8400 to $9800, how many traders out there called the bear flag like I did, before the bear flag became apparent?
Right now, BTC is heading towards my target just the way I expected. I might not predict the bouncing between the fib retrace levels & timing correctly as it is certainly not easy. However, if you are not a day trader you should still benefit from my initial buy target and my ultimate sell target. But if you are a professional day trader, I would suggest you to also follow @PRO_Indicators.
- To be continued below -
Note
On the graph above you can see I set my ultimate target @ $10139. There are a couple of reasons for it:1. The Fibonacci reference points that I setup seems to be valid. If you have seen my previous post on XRP, you would have seen how accurate I was when I predicted the bottom of XRP, while 99.9% of traders said that if XRP surpassed the low on 6th Feb the next target will be around $0.43.
2. There are currently two sets of fib retracements that could play out, one indicating a price target of $10139 and the other $9553 (which I didn’t show). If I took the phychological of whales into account, I would think that the price target is $10139. Why? If you look closely at the top of the downtrend channel (yellow), my target actually surpasses the top of the downtrend channel. And that is exactly what the whales want you to think, just like when BTC surpassed the top of the downtrend channel on the 27th of Feb. But did BTC really surpass the downtrend channel on the 27th of Feb and created another downtrend line? No!! If you have seen my previous posts on BTC, I have mentioned that linear scale works better in a shorter time frame while log scale works better in a larger time frame. If you look at the graph below, which is exactly the same graph as the one I posted above but in log scale. Can you see the difference? My target of $10139 is where the top of the downtrend line is going to intersect around the 26th – 27th of March. In addition, if you notice the mid-term trendline (red) on the log scale version, you can actually see that the low on the 18th Mar touched right on the trendline and bounced off nicely. This won’t be seen if you only see the graph in the linear scale.
So, what am I going to do next? I will see how BTC reacts @ $9553 and see the RSI & MACD level, as well as the volume at that point in time. If it surpasses $9553 without any hesitation, I would take my profits when BTC hits my ultimate target around $10139.
By saying all the above, there is still a small chance that BTC could reverse to below $7240. For me, I don’t really care because more than 75% of my buy positions are now closed with 21%+ profits. The rest I have re-adjusted the SL to $7624 – 3% below the 0.786 retrace.
Please note this is for education purposes. Good luck trading.
Taiwan Bear
Note
Note
Dear followers, According to the bouncing between fib levels yesterday, I think there might be a chance that the ultimate target is around $10395, instead of 10139.1. And if that is the case, the likelihood of BTC dropping down to $4436 is increased. I will show you why later on if BTC does get rejected from $10.395.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.