Introduction: The bitcoin price has rebounded strongly since the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade diplomacy sequence between the USA and its main trading partners, confirmed US disinflation and a strong rebound in global M2 liquidity. On this subject of the positive correlation between the bitcoin price and global liquidity, we invite you to reread our previous analyses (in the list of analyses related to our new article of the day).
The price of BTC in US dollars has thus bounced back from US$74,000 to over US$95,000, the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving has been relaunched, so could an altcoin season get underway in the coming weeks?
To answer this question, we suggest you keep a close eye on two key barometers: the ratio between altcoins and bitcoin, and bitcoin dominance.
1) The ratio between altcoin depth and bitcoin price
The basic principle of a mathematical ratio is as follows: if the curve is bullish, then the numerator is outperforming, and if the curve is bearish, then the denominator is outperforming (and vice versa). On the chart below, you can see a graphical analysis of the OTHERS/BITCOIN ratio, i.e. the ratio between altcoins above the top 10 in terms of market capitalization and the bitcoin price.
A bullish reversal in this ratio is needed to see the onset of an altcoin season, i.e. a market phase in which altcoins perform relatively better than BTC, which is quite rare in the current cycle. At this stage, the ratio is stabilizing in contact with a long-term uptrend line, and a potential bullish divergence is present. But there is no bullish signal yet. Until this ratio validates a bullish reversal, there is no altcoin season.
2) The underlying dynamics of bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market
Bitcoin's dominance represents the relative weight of BTC within the total market capitalization of the crypto market. The last true altcoin season dates back to the previous cycle, with BTC's dominance plummeting in the first part of 2021. There is no altcoin season as long as BTC's dominance remains on an upward trend.
Conclusion: While BTC's bullish cycle remains intact for the year 2025, altcoins remain on the back foot for the time being. We invite you to keep a close eye on the two barometers presented above, as they are the early indicators of a possible new altcoin season.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
The price of BTC in US dollars has thus bounced back from US$74,000 to over US$95,000, the bullish cycle linked to the Spring 2024 halving has been relaunched, so could an altcoin season get underway in the coming weeks?
To answer this question, we suggest you keep a close eye on two key barometers: the ratio between altcoins and bitcoin, and bitcoin dominance.
1) The ratio between altcoin depth and bitcoin price
The basic principle of a mathematical ratio is as follows: if the curve is bullish, then the numerator is outperforming, and if the curve is bearish, then the denominator is outperforming (and vice versa). On the chart below, you can see a graphical analysis of the OTHERS/BITCOIN ratio, i.e. the ratio between altcoins above the top 10 in terms of market capitalization and the bitcoin price.
A bullish reversal in this ratio is needed to see the onset of an altcoin season, i.e. a market phase in which altcoins perform relatively better than BTC, which is quite rare in the current cycle. At this stage, the ratio is stabilizing in contact with a long-term uptrend line, and a potential bullish divergence is present. But there is no bullish signal yet. Until this ratio validates a bullish reversal, there is no altcoin season.
2) The underlying dynamics of bitcoin's dominance of the crypto market
Bitcoin's dominance represents the relative weight of BTC within the total market capitalization of the crypto market. The last true altcoin season dates back to the previous cycle, with BTC's dominance plummeting in the first part of 2021. There is no altcoin season as long as BTC's dominance remains on an upward trend.
Conclusion: While BTC's bullish cycle remains intact for the year 2025, altcoins remain on the back foot for the time being. We invite you to keep a close eye on the two barometers presented above, as they are the early indicators of a possible new altcoin season.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.