Bitcoin
Short

Wait, I don't get free coins anymore? Dump those BTCs.

Updated
I made this chart yesterday, but things got messed up and the fundamentals have changed as 2X got cancelled. Here is the old one where I was able to short the top, which doesnt happen often:
Top reached, run for those alternatives! Had real good timing :)



Don't get trapped, be smart. In the latest days I have seen so many switching their views on Bitcoins direction. "A new entity has taken over" I read from some trader for example.
Bitcoin is a market that behaves after supply and demand like the rest. I will be shocked if we see more demand than supply over the next 10 days.


Fundamental

No more free coins, that's the reason we are dumping.
However, I have much more bullish view on BTC now as opposed to pre-fork. Core won the battle, and BTC will remain king.
The market was about to take a huge dive regardless of what happened to the fork. Either panic or no free coins.

But, I am looking at my buy area as more unlikely now and may decide to buy when I close short. Will keep updating this idea.


Technical

We have completed 5 waves, and its time to get a correction.

I am looking at the 0.618 as a perfect place to close out short (5250 USD).
If we look at the trendline it gives us a nice place to open longs. Right between 0.5 & 0.382.


Numbers
  • Short: 7800 USD
  • Close Short: 5250 USD
  • Buy: 4600 USD
Note
Testing 0.78 right now, first support!

If you are a daytrader, there might be a good opportunity to make some money around here.
Note
Defending it nicely, I scooped up a short term long on 6406.4!
Note
Easy money! Closed that long at 6690, for a an easy 4.25% profit. That's a sweet trade, and down we go again I hope :)
Trade closed manually
snapshot

Sorry for no updates, I have been busy.
I have closed this trade now that the idea didnt not turn out as hoped. And sadly we only went down to 5400, just 150 away from my target.
I closed out the trade when it broke through the 7330 resistance.

It looks like Bitcoin aint ready to fall yet, and we may get another run before on the hype of CME launch. I am looking to find a long around the same level as I closed the short. Depending on if the 7330 can now hold as support.
Will open up new trading idea if I do.

This position yielded a profit of 6.5%. Which is a very good return, but obviously it would have been much more if it had fallen down a little more. Its difficult to hit the lows and highs, but as long as I close in the green its a good trade.
Note
Support held incredibly well and I got a long in around 7700.
Not counting that though as I didnt get around to open a trading idea and cant prove it :P

Bitcoin is insane these days before the futures launch!
It probably takes 10k. Maybe it just goes right under, maybe it goes up to the 11.5k-12k area.
All I know is that I don't want to trade this market before 8.dec. Why?
Because thats right before futures launch, and the next trade I take on Bitcoin is gonna be a short.

Today we got BTC (8800), BCH (1550), BTG (375) and BCD (925). Combined value of 11650 USD!
If you held BTC for two years (2016, aprx 400 USD), that's a 30x increase or so.

Do I like Bitcoin? YES! I love the technology, I love the movement. I have been in this space for 4 years for a reason.
But I am trader, I need to make money and I need to think risk/reward.
That's why I have closed my long at 8900 USD. (13.5%)
It's cash and altcoins almost exclusively for me now when it comes to crypto. My BTC exposure is very small.

If Bitcoin continues up, great, my alts will generate some profit.
If Bitcoin suddenly shocks everyone and crashes, great, I probably lose some on altcoins but will be in great shape!
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