My most bearish guess for where BTC price proceeds from here (2/25/25):
Consistent with a Double Top, we see basically a 786 retracement (however circuitous) below the 200d SMA to levels preceding the move to $100K begun in November of 2024.
This could--and would likely--involve a bearish retest of the VAL of the volume profile anchored at the 10/10/24 Swing Low, a dead-cat bounce and retest of its POC, and/or a bear-flagging decent to the level in question.
It's plausible, especially given the lack of volume in crypto markets since December of 2024, however much the history of post-halving years would suggest otherwise. Also favoring the bearish case: the persistence of QT and the unlikelihood of significant cuts in the Federal Funding Rate.
Consistent with a Double Top, we see basically a 786 retracement (however circuitous) below the 200d SMA to levels preceding the move to $100K begun in November of 2024.
This could--and would likely--involve a bearish retest of the VAL of the volume profile anchored at the 10/10/24 Swing Low, a dead-cat bounce and retest of its POC, and/or a bear-flagging decent to the level in question.
It's plausible, especially given the lack of volume in crypto markets since December of 2024, however much the history of post-halving years would suggest otherwise. Also favoring the bearish case: the persistence of QT and the unlikelihood of significant cuts in the Federal Funding Rate.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.