Quite the week it's been so far with LUNC. But that's for another time.
BTC is about to hit a very necessary area that will determine its strength to the upside. While there is significant downside momentum, the point has come where it all matters
On the weekly TF, price is very very close to doing two things:
1. is is about to do a potential double bottom from early June
2. it is about to hit the weekly 200 sma, (something it's already done before) however, the second time is going to be crucial.
On the 4 hour, a clear divergence is being created as price steeps lower into the 17000's. An even lower downside move is potentially about to happen, triggering a whole bunch of buy orders. The 18000 level is very do or die.
I remain hesitant on the buying opportunities in terms of perpetual contracts. But I will be buying Bitcoin as an investment at this level.
Since this could look like a double bottom on the weekly, it also has every reason to plummet through the 200 weekly sma and annihilate anyone who took that long. In that case, if price is persistent in its downside momentum, that will signify the continuation of this bear market.
While the analysis looks silly as price can only go up or down, these levels are very important as price hasn't hit the 200 weekly sma twice without some significant reaction. Indeed, the last time price hit the SMA (as a second touch) was in early March 2020 which was the beginning of a massive bull trend.