9/18 Weak pump on Jerome's underpromise and overdelivery.
Overview:
Thank you, mighty Lord Jerome, for the pump! The Fed under-promised but over-delivered with a full 2 basis point rate cut. Looking at the 15-minute
BTCUSD chart, when the decision was announced, the price spiked by just 1.7% before correcting. However, at 7 a.m. Shanghai time, four hours later, the price started to pump and has now broken the key weekly level of 61.4k. The question is, will the bulls defend this line and establish it as new support by bouncing from it?
The first news of a possible September rate cut came out in late June. On June 21st, the Financial Times reported, "Fed on course for two cuts in 2024 starting in September" (link). At that time, Bitcoin was still correcting from its 72k peak. Fast forward two weeks, and on July 16th, CNBC reported that traders were pricing in a 100% chance of a September cut (link). Interestingly, BTC had reached its bottom four days before this news and then started its second-largest bull run wave.
Yesterday, the CME FedWatch Tool spiked to indicate a 65% chance of a 0.50% rate cut, compared to just 10% in early August. From now on, we’ll be giving more weight to this indicator. Last Friday, on 9/13, we predicted, "With this week’s meteoric growth, Monday and Tuesday are expected to trade flat or slightly negative due to profit-taking before the volatility." Between Friday evening and Monday evening, BTC corrected by 4.9%.
Technical Analysis:
W: We’ve passed the important weekly level of 61.4k and need to either bounce from it or close the week above this level. The BB MA sits at 62.5k, so the trend remains bearish until that level is reached. This overlaps with the liquidation heatmap, which shows $22 million in liquidity built up. Indicators suggest we will reach that level.
D: Since yesterday, we’ve confirmed a bullish trend after rebounding from 58.2k. RSI hasn’t hit the overbought level yet, and the MACD has been climbing since the sell-off on September 7th. Unfortunately, the volume hasn’t increased, even with this bullish macro event. Both the spot and futures markets are showing a lack of enthusiasm, with Open Interest falling since Friday’s high.
4h: As we mentioned yesterday, Jerome doesn’t care about bearish divergences. The current pump is defying technical analysis, which reminds us to avoid trading around major events like Fed meetings or earnings reports.
1h: RSI is hitting the overbought region for the second time in 36 hours—not a good sign.
Altcoins vs. BTC:
Weak reactions from ETH and SOL, but NEAR, SUI, and FTM are rocketing higher.
Bull Case:
Retail traders might see BTC printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. Influencers are already preparing content about the next level being 44k and advising on how to stay solvent in a bear market. Remember the saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bear Case:
The economy may not be doing as well as whales think. If it becomes clear that the rate cuts aren’t working, whales could start dumping, driving the price toward 44k.
Fear and Greed Index:
We’re at 40.44, officially out of Fear territory.
Prediction:
Expect the pump to continue for the rest of the week.
Thank you, mighty Lord Jerome, for the pump! The Fed under-promised but over-delivered with a full 2 basis point rate cut. Looking at the 15-minute
BTCUSD chart, when the decision was announced, the price spiked by just 1.7% before correcting. However, at 7 a.m. Shanghai time, four hours later, the price started to pump and has now broken the key weekly level of 61.4k. The question is, will the bulls defend this line and establish it as new support by bouncing from it?The first news of a possible September rate cut came out in late June. On June 21st, the Financial Times reported, "Fed on course for two cuts in 2024 starting in September" (link). At that time, Bitcoin was still correcting from its 72k peak. Fast forward two weeks, and on July 16th, CNBC reported that traders were pricing in a 100% chance of a September cut (link). Interestingly, BTC had reached its bottom four days before this news and then started its second-largest bull run wave.
Yesterday, the CME FedWatch Tool spiked to indicate a 65% chance of a 0.50% rate cut, compared to just 10% in early August. From now on, we’ll be giving more weight to this indicator. Last Friday, on 9/13, we predicted, "With this week’s meteoric growth, Monday and Tuesday are expected to trade flat or slightly negative due to profit-taking before the volatility." Between Friday evening and Monday evening, BTC corrected by 4.9%.
Technical Analysis:
W: We’ve passed the important weekly level of 61.4k and need to either bounce from it or close the week above this level. The BB MA sits at 62.5k, so the trend remains bearish until that level is reached. This overlaps with the liquidation heatmap, which shows $22 million in liquidity built up. Indicators suggest we will reach that level.
D: Since yesterday, we’ve confirmed a bullish trend after rebounding from 58.2k. RSI hasn’t hit the overbought level yet, and the MACD has been climbing since the sell-off on September 7th. Unfortunately, the volume hasn’t increased, even with this bullish macro event. Both the spot and futures markets are showing a lack of enthusiasm, with Open Interest falling since Friday’s high.
4h: As we mentioned yesterday, Jerome doesn’t care about bearish divergences. The current pump is defying technical analysis, which reminds us to avoid trading around major events like Fed meetings or earnings reports.
1h: RSI is hitting the overbought region for the second time in 36 hours—not a good sign.
Altcoins vs. BTC:
Weak reactions from ETH and SOL, but NEAR, SUI, and FTM are rocketing higher.
Bull Case:
Retail traders might see BTC printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. Influencers are already preparing content about the next level being 44k and advising on how to stay solvent in a bear market. Remember the saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Bear Case:
The economy may not be doing as well as whales think. If it becomes clear that the rate cuts aren’t working, whales could start dumping, driving the price toward 44k.
Fear and Greed Index:
We’re at 40.44, officially out of Fear territory.
Prediction:
Expect the pump to continue for the rest of the week.
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