Education

How to spot bear market. Live example.

Updated

Pretty simple.
1- When we lose the important moving average's, it's an indication a bear market is possible, but by itself does not confirm the start of a bear market at all.
2- When the MA50 starts going downwards... you can start betting we're in bear market.
3- When we lost the MA100 and it starts pointing down, bear market is confirmed, but by then we already dropped alot thought.
4- Usually the faster the climb up is, the longer the bear market lasts. The more time we are in bull market, the more violent and quick the drop. Compare 2014 2017 perfect example.
5- Everything comes in wave of 3. 1rst time people don't notice, 2nd time don't really believe, 3rd time everyone with simple minds are thinking "last 2 times they said it wasn't going up/down, last 2 times it did this it keeps repeating itself, clearly I can buy/sell/join that sect/vote for that NAZI that knows how to manipulate minds. Etc. Always.
*- Several factors and indicators have to point out to the same thing. It still needs an educated human eye (or hella good AI?!).

Why anyone can't just use this blindy? Take this for example:

But... I mean... to me it's obvious... we're not about to start a bear market when we just got out of one & people sold hard and there hasn't been any buying yet...Makes no sense.. But yeah every one doesn't see this I guess.

But anyway, this is obviously not for finding signals, just getting an idea of the general trend and putting the odds in your favor.
And you can use the MA's as support/resistance to long or short. when several resistances or support are at the same area it's bonus triple kill!
The moving averages, especially higher numbers) are mostly viewed I believe by these wonderful people, the investors "in it for the long term", these wonderful people give us money everytime we hit one of their support or resistance.
youtube.com/watch?v=QInB6iExaxw&feature=youtu.be&t=1760

This drawing (+ my evil plan ofc) gave me the idea to post this:

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Important thing to know: it is EXTREMELY rare a support does not get tested as resistance after being lost.

Another example:

Also, keep in mind on smaller time frames linear matters, on larger time frames log matters more (unless it's the most boring market that never moves)

PS: with all these resistances in the same area, what could possibly go wrong? :D

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See it as a Rocky movie, that's probably the mindset the bulls are in in these cases "we can win never give up we'll show them", imagine Rocky beats USA world champion because he's the hero & the script says so and "he has heart and never gave up", next, no rest, he gets to fight this brutal catcher dude, he wins because the script says so he can barely breathe he's bleading near dead, next is the russian killing machine. Even dragon ball can't pull that one off...

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I would like to see the weekly close at 7000.
A nice equilibrium, then maybe some flat weeks, or a big dump the week after.
It's not 100%, but the longer we stay there before falling:
* The faster we will fall. Violence!
* The longer we will stay down before going up, if we go up. Going up does not mean going past 20k.

Once we lose 2017 investors support, bear market is fully confirmed and forget about "moon" for a looong while (depending how fast we leave the hodl area).

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Psychologically, my interpretation is if people never give up fight for their lives and it lastes ages, while they're nervous, sleep deprived, exhaust all they got basically, it will take a loooong time for confidence to come back.
The longer people suffer and hold on, the more pain they inflict upon themselves, until either prophetic savior buyers come & they can break even, or we go down and they don't have to worry anymore.

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We can be certain something will happen in the next days, because either:
1- We don't move for the next days, just hang on 8000 ==> MA 50 daily & weekly will cross, BTC cannot stay between them. The direction it goes will make it violently move, in particular if it goes below MA50 WEEKLY since all the investors will bail out.
2- Once MA 50 weekly gets close enough, we see strong enough selling to cross it. It's over. Lights out.
3- We keep hanging to MA50 daily and price goes up. More traders FOMO in till the next resistance the downtrend + weekly MA10 which are a few dozen dollars above, if it breaks rapidly there's the MA100, I'll reassess if this happens.
From looking at the past at other markets charts over and over I never see something go up when it struggles & hangs on for its dear life. So I'm not going to post updates on a possible wonderland bullish scenario. This is the last one. IF something happens I'll make a new idea.

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Any one looking for hopium, this could happen:

I won't underestimate the power of FOMO & delusion, I keep seing it non stop it's unreal.

We should at least drop before sticking to the MA50D and then breaking throught.
RIght now we haven't pulled back significantly and still bearish div weak buying.

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As you can see on this chart, Bitcoin price violently moved from $8251 to $8251.1 and is now consolidating in the area.
We are now expecting the traders to join this rally and push the price to the amazing level of $8251.5.
After this rally, the price should retrace somewhere into the $8251.3-$8151.4 and then consolidate there and a breakout of the price will indicate which direction it goes.

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I guess we can call this a capitulation (PM)? :D
Or some big accounts just dumped hard all at once? Nah.

And now twitter is full of whining lil b****es.
Every market cycle same BS lol.

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BTC rejected MA50, are we going to take that pink line?
Will I die of old age before it happens? Questions, questions...

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Another red day for the stock market, still far away from the lows thought.
Bitcoin could be correlated to these.
Also, people are cashing out and usd is climbing in value.

All of these things just had big bull markets, they can't last forever...

MrRenev

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