Long

BTC_1D_ASCENDING_TRIANGLE_SETUP

Updated

I am waiting for price action to confirm my bullish bias in the ascending triangle set up on the daily chart for BTC. I will enter the trade at 25.3, which is a major resistance level, after a breakout and retest. The potential upside is 22% with target profits at 26.6, 28, and 31.6. To mitigate risk, I will implement a trailing stop loss as I reach each profit target.

ENTRY: 25.3
TP1: 26.6
TP2: 28
TP 3 31.6

Trade active

Update: Solid breakout here BTC hovering at 25.6, need a restest for confirmation and we're off.

Note

Update: BTC broke weekly resistance at 26.6, expect momentum towards 1MR. Adjust S/L for high downside wicks hunting stops.

Note

Update: TP1 and TP2 have been attained. To safeguard gains on bearish wicks, adjust the stop losses. Although it will be demanding to reach TP3, which is the monthly resistance, the market structure has not yet been disrupted.

Note

The long position is still active, but I am waiting for tomorrow's FOMC meeting to observe the market's response. In the event that the FOMC generates a positive sentiment and encourages risk-taking in equities, we can expect the ongoing trend toward value drive to lead to taking profits at 31.6. However, if the market experiences a sudden drop and the FOMC signals bearishness, I will close this position and likely open a short position. Both scenarios offer valuable trading opportunities. It's important to note that bearish price action is beginning to form in the LTF, as its price is currently following an ascending wedge pattern.

+50bps flip bearish
+25bps continuation TP3

Note

We are currently maintaining our position, as the Fed appears to be favoring a more cautious approach. The market's response has paused and is receiving backing at our weekly 26.6 structure. It's probable that we'll experience volatility until we obtain a substantial directional inclination. We shouldn't consider switching to a short position until we breach the 26.6 support level. Despite the price moving downwards out of the ascending wedge, those with a bearish outlook should note that the 50 EMA and weekly support are providing support.

Recap of FOMC:
* Economic indicators stronger than expected
* No longer anticipate ongoing rate increases appropriate due to the banking crisis
* Recent banking events may result in tighter credit conditions impacting the economy and response
* Incoming data and effects of tighter credit conditions are closely monitored and used as the basis for decisions
* Projections, not a plan, the path will adjust as appropriate
* Meeting-by-meeting decisions based on the totality of data
* Reducing inflation is likely to require a period of below-trend growth

Note

Currently, the price of BTC is ranging from a top range of 28k and a bottom range of 26.6. It is difficult to determine whether there is an uptrend or downtrend at this point. For those who are familiar with ADX, the current reading is at 19.12, indicating a weak trend via chop.

For those who are not familiar with ADX, it is an oscillator that measures the strength of a trend on a scale of 0-100. A reading below 20 indicates a weak trend, while a reading above 50 indicates a strong trend. Unlike stochastics, ADX doesn't determine whether the trend is bullish or bearish; it simply measures the strength of the current trend. ADX is a useful tool for identifying whether the market is ranging or experiencing a strong uptrend or downtrend based on price action.

To check the ADX, locate the indicator tab and look for it.

Holding here and watching the above levels as mentioned. Until then, patience is the name of the game.

Note

I am eager to observe BTC's daily closing price. BTC is currently testing the lower range at 26.6, but it is worth noting the presence of a low-volume node. We should be well-prepped for that BTC low range as we've been highlighting the lows on this thread.

Note

Bulls have made an impressive recovery from Monday's bearish candlestick, regaining control. We're waiting for a clear breakthrough and retest of the 28k ceiling before adding to our position. Our long position is active, with a target of TP3 for a potential 12% increase. Stay committed to the plan as we've already gained 11% from our entry at 25.3. The trend is range-bound, but momentum favors the bulls.

Note

BTC pushing here, hello $29,190. Our strategy is to wait for confirmation of a sustained rally, keeping a close eye on the 4-hour and 1-day time frames to ensure the price closes above the 28k zone. Once we receive confirmation, we can increase our position and maximize our risk-reward ratio. It's important not to bid at the 28s level as it could lead to a decrease in our risk-reward ratio if this movement turns out to be a false breakout. Our approach should be to observe, validate, and confirm before taking any action. Never compromise our R:R based on a single bullish candlestick. Instead, we should focus on identifying sustained rallies.

Note

BTC has formed a rectangle top pattern on the 4-hour chart after reaching its third peak on the 29th and experiencing a shortfall on the 30th. There is a 47% chance of a breakthrough above the upper boundary, according to Bulkowski's research on rectangle top patterns. For the pattern to be valid, it must have three peaks, two valleys, and a shortfall. The price closed above the 50 EMA on the 30th at 21hrs and never came near the lower limit at 26.6. A breakthrough above $28,650 could allow us to exceed 29k and add to our position, but it's important to note that this is just a forecast and nothing is certain.

Note

The market has failed to break out of the upper boundary of the rectangle top 4H, causing the price action to remain range-bound. We should continue to observe the market and wait for a clear rally in either direction. If we break above, we can add to our risk and ride to 31k. Alternatively, if we break and retest below 26.6, we can short and ride the momentum to 23.9. I will share the short levels when the time comes. We should avoid scalping at levels where the price is ranging with small risk-to-reward ratios and instead position ourselves to maximize our hits.

Note

Bitcoin's price saw a temporary setback after reaching a high of 29,190, but the indicators remain optimistic on the higher time frames. The RSI remains above 50, indicating that the bulls are still in control, and the MACD lines are also well above the zero lines, reinforcing the bullish outlook. However, bearish signals are starting to emerge in the lower time frames.

The market has been consolidating for 16 days, which may indicate a stronger level of support or resistance at a certain price level, potentially leading to a stronger breakout in either direction when the consolidation period ends. A strong move above or below the key level of 28.6K or 26.6K could occur.

On the macro front, inflation numbers set for April 12th could provide clarity on the trajectory of market sentiment. Reports on March CPI, FOMC minutes, Retail Sales, and Consumer Confidence will offer further insight into the state of the consumer. These indicators, combined with our key levels, may better indicate where the market is heading.

Note

BTC pushing here and testing 29,190. I'm looking to pad our longs once this closes above our key level.

Note

Looking closely at LTF, we can see a positive rebound from our crucial level. Added 29166.

Note

BTC hit the 30k mark which is a significant phych level, with only 4% left to reach TP3. We're anticipating a boost on Wednesday to help us surpass this hurdle, but it's crucial to manage your risk-reward ratio as selling pressure may increase due to profit-taking from spot traders.

Note

Just a friendly nudge, if you haven't already, it's advisable to adjust your stop loss upwards now. This is how we protect our profits as the market continues to rise. It's worth noting that we're currently operating with profits already secured. Additionally, it's worth considering that the breach of the 29,190 price level has broken resistance on the 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes, which adds some nuance to the trade.

Note

BTC price rose above 30.5K on the back of a soft CPI YoY and MoM, in line with our bullish outlook. Spot traders are booking profits at these levels, as expected. With the FOMC Minutes due, a soft inflation report is increasing selling pressure on the US dollar, which could provide further insights into the Fed's rate outlook and impact on BTC's continued rally as risk assets are supported.

Recap CPI:
*US CPI YoY and MoM both came in below market expectations, supporting Bitcoin's bullish thesis.
*BTC climbed past the 30.5K level ahead of the release, indicating the potential for continued gains.
*The US Dollar's selling pressure has increased, which is positive for risk assets for the majors.

Nuance:
*Nearly all cryptocurrencies in the top 30 assets have yielded gains in response to the US CPI data release.

We're awaiting the FOMC minutes to confirm the Fed's "dovish" outlook and forecast their next steps on rate hikes for the rest of the year, which will be published at 11:00 AM PST.

Note

FOMC Minutes, Update:
The FOMC's recent decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4¾ to 5 percent, increase the interest rate paid on reserve balances, and raise the primary credit rate could potentially indicate a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which may tighten financial conditions and impact risk assets like BTC. However, the Committee remains attentive to inflation risks and is willing to adjust its approach if necessary, so the impact on BTC and other risk assets remains uncertain.

On the other hand, the soft CPI numbers from the recent release suggest that inflation may not be rising as quickly as previously feared, which could ease some pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates. This could be viewed positively for risk assets like BTC, as it may decrease the risk of inflation eroding their value. Additionally, if the Fed continues to be accommodative, it may motivate investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets like crypto in general.

Note

Now we have a backdrop on the macro— let's dive into the charts. BTC tested and held the 29.6K support level and is currently trading above it and the 100 EMA.
BTC could see a strong increase if it closes above the resistance zones at 30.3K and 30.5K previous high on the hourly, with immediate support at 29.8K and the next major support at 29.6K. In summary, BTC is currently trading within a narrower range, and breaking either the upper or lower boundaries will provide clarity on its momentum.

Note

On 30.9, BTC reached an NHOD (new high of the day). Currently, we're 2.5% away from TP3. It is advisable to maintain the course and start taking profits. Reducing position size here and moving up our S/L in a tighter range.

Note

BTC is currently deviating from its new range with a high of 30.5 and a low of 29.6, which has caught the attention of bears. They have an intention to continue their momentum towards the key S/R flip at 29.1K. However, because we have reduced our position size and took healthy profits, there is no need to worry about how this will play out. Our 25.3 triggered entry already secured a 22% upside potential with a target of 31k. Moving forward, we need to observe how BTC plays out and monitor the crucial support level at 29.1. If the bears manage to break down this support, we can expect to see a new level where the previous range lows will be swept, creating a new opportunity for a short position. I'll share further details on this in a new idea stream and will close this out if P/A invalidates the bullish thesis. Until then stay patient as we trade this level by level.

Trade closed: target reached

Trade concluded. Our position was stopped out since bears successfully drove the price below the critical S/R flip at 29.1. Due to the strong downward momentum, tight stops were employed. Ultimately, we managed to maximize gains on this swing trade, achieving the initial target of a 22% upside. Congrats, on staying the course. On to the next!

PierrePressure

Pierre Pressure
FOCUS - FIGHT - WIN

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