Updated

Bitcoin multiple targets (almost) reached, what now?

Price did not make the waves i expected it to do, actually it did on one hand and i will explain why.

Corrections always happen in price and time, sometimes more from the one and less from the other, difficult to predict upfront!

Week or 2 ago when i predicted an upcoming relief rally for crypto's i did not know how high it could go than. With a big rally like we saw there, correction is much more in price than it is in time. The wave down was also much bigger from the 9800 to the 7250, to what we have now from the 9000 to the 7750 ( a few days ago). As my followers now i was short and i closed those position's around 7900 because i was expecting another correction. I have been waiting for several days, patiently, for the price to reach 8300/8400 and to build up a short position again. But instead of going sideways and making slightly higher prices (making a bear flag) the market was just even much weaker than i thought and it kept making lower highs. So instead of making a (rising) bear flag it made a descending triangle.

We saw several attempts from buyers to push price up, making multiple small rallies but each time the bull flag was failing and there was no follow through, no conviction! This market actually showed it's hand for the short term! Anyway, i missed my entry point to go short again and i am still flat waiting to make a good trade.

When we look at the chart, Price has finally reached it's targets of the rising wedge i showed you 2 weeks ago and that purple triangle . About this purple triangle, funny thing is you don't see any other analyst showing that lower trend line as the support line of the triangle, they all use the low at 7250. With things like this my tactics (tools) are different from most people. For me the 7250 is the end of that big wave down from 11700 to the 7250. This level is not the starting point for the correction, after we made that big short squeeze (which is mostly shorts buying back and NOT bulls buying. Bulls started to buy during that flag it made around the 8000 and up. That's why i placed the support line there and not from the 7250.

Maybe than you guys understand better why i kept on saying that inverse H&S at 11.700 would fail, but even more the one people have been shouting about the last few weeks on the 1hr chart. I have been telling many times now, TA is not just drawing lines that connect. Those connected points have to match to where the market is at that moment, it's short term plan. Anyway, that's just my humble opinion :)

This last triangle has a target slightly lower to where we are now, around 7300/7400. So price could still drop to those levels from here. Now targets do not mean they are turning points, it happens of course for the short term or long term, but that's just guessing. Now i missed my entry point to go short and i wont chase the market risking a loosing trade. I will keep on waiting. Maybe if we go up towards the 7800/7900 to test that blue triangle again, i could open up a short position. But i am not sure about that now. Could be i just wait it out even longer. The 7250 is an important level to watch, a break of this level could mean we can see an acceleration down.

As i am writing this we have dropped below the 7500 again

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This channel i showed in my previous analysis, still has allot of weight, just can't break it and we keep on dropping. Probably towards the 7300/7400

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Best scenario (for me :)) we make a quick drop to 73xx and make a bounce up

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To be clear guys, above update is just a thought, i am not trading it!!

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Maybe a breakout now

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Let's see if price can stay above the line now, test it as support

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This market is still very weak, just can't push higher. Chances increase we go lower. Still above that channel though, so maybe if we push above that previous high we could start to see something

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Last hope?

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Hope? no hope left. It's just to weak. 7300 is a target of that blue triangle, give or take 50/100 points. Maybe it could turn around there. Anyway there is not even a fight going on, just dropping slowly

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Because price is moving slowly, only hope for bulls is we see a short squeeze soon, otherwise there is no hope left i think. I am still waiting patiently for an entry point to go short, Still hope for 8K+ prices. I am not getting in here

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Maybe this one? hahaha i just keep searching for things to get the price up so i can short it again :) LOL

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Thing is, normally when price gets this close again to a support level (the 7250) it usually breaks. It is getting this close now that i am starting to fear that i completely missed my entry point and that there might be no hope again to get in at higher prices. Still not chasing the market!

Wow what a massive rally now :) (just kidding). Looks like that wedge has some bullish power. Now it's important that it pushes through when it makes a bull flag

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Can't believe my eyes, there is follow through :)

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Now it's starting to look like a real reversal, i see an ugly inverse H&S, would be even stronger if it doesn't make the right shoulder and just pushes through with this bull flag. First target seems around 7750

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Looks like a right shoulder will be formed now. It should not drop below the green area

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I just went long at 7470, small position. Stop around 7350

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Here you can see, they tried to make a right shoulder, but the market is still to weak. Still keeping my stop around 7350. Could find support there. Showing similar movement as it did at the 7250. Went up to 7500 and dropped to 7320, twice. Creating even more stops around those levels. My guess is they are trying the same thing again.

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This what that picture than. No guarantee we will see the same of course. For me it's just worth the risk now!

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This is now

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Meaning it should stay above 7350/7400 now and slowly go up

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Last hope is a double bottom here

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Crap, don't think we will go up again to build up a short position :)

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Maybe it's good, i could take a break for a week or so :)

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Small evaluation: I was just convinced we would see another wave up towards the 8200/8400 a few days ago. Because i got stuck in that vision i was being less objective. I could have shorted it yesterday when it dropped below that blue triangle, but i thought i would be chasing the market and that's the reason why i did not do it.
I have no regrets of my last long trade, was worth the risk.
Thing now is, i think it's best to take a day or to off, just wait what the market will do and than take a new fresh look at it again. Sometimes it's the most profitable strategy

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to=two

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ANother small bear flag in the making

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There are very big amounts being liquidated at Bitmex. It keeps pushing the price down there. As volume is much bigger there than most exchanges (i think), it keeps pushing the price down. It could be of influence

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Price seems to cool down now. That big buy order creating that spike seems to have helped

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COuld be making an inverse H&S now

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Target could be 7500, seems to be pushing through now

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It should bounce around here, otherwise the target fell short and we could break the low again i think

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This bull flag is the last defense of the bulls. Selling volume seems to be decreasing so there is a chance this could succeed. But we need to see some buying volume

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They are loosing again

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Seem to have made a wedge here, probably look up the low again

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I see 2 options now, the wedge i posted earlier has the biggest chance. Turning point is that green area. There is a inverse H&S in the making, the right shoulder is struggling right now. If price stays above that green area and has the strength to push higher again above 7300 price could go to 7800. But i think the market is still to damaged now that we will most probably see the rising wedge go to work

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That big volume bar is no selling pressure. It was a big sell wall of almost 800 BTC which got bought in to by almost half and than buyers gave up. Think we have a small turning point here now. That sell wall dropped from 550 to 200 but someone added another 300. If price pushes through that wall than u can assume that inverse H&S will succeed. If we drop below that support line there, price could drop to test the last support around 6900 again

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Where is the love guys? I will update if likes get above 200

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I have a price of around 5500 for the coming days/week. Don't know yet if we see another correction up, but a few patterns give me a target around that level

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Looks like a small wedge/flag

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I am out for a few hours, good luck guys. Watch out for a potentional bear flag, meaning there could be another big bounce up. But so far it only looks like we are headed down

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Target of the wedge is the green support line, target of this bear flag is that purple circle. Everything below 7100 is clear bearish momentum

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Target of the wedge has been reached, that flag is a ? mark, not certain it HAS to reach it. As long as we don't bounce here, and stay around the low, it will probably reach it and perhaps even go lower than that. This could be a level to lock in some profit

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By the way, i think i won't post my trades anymore, things get to complicated for you guys but it influences me also. Maybe i will do it again, but for now i won't

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Could be turning down here again

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These are the levels to look at. 7300ish is a very important turning point for the short term. If price is able to get above this level than we can assume a double bottom is set. BUT, every bullish pattern has failed this week, so even if it gets there, i don't think it will be able to reach it's target.

Another option is this small bear flag, we just drop below it and continue down. If we break the low around 6600, i expect another acceleration down

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Sell volume is just to much, people are just dumping it, each small rally gets used to dump again. This is very bad people.
The flag got tested on and started dropping again. Target of that bigger flag also got reached now. But i don't think it's the end of it. Unless selling volume drops

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Price got below support, but selling volume dropped (for) now. They are trying to get above the 6650 again with that small inverse H&S. If they can, things can cool down again and probably the dumbing as well

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There is some fighting going on now to hold the 6600. If bulls loose, i think we will see an acceleration down. But probably if bears loose, we could see the same up. So be prepared no matter if your long now or still short. Set goals to where you want to put your stop loss

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Looks like another bear flag

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Drop is taking to long, selling pressure has dropped. Chances increase for a short covering rally. That green area of that trend line is a good stop.
Bearish momentum is still high though!

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Looks like they are going for it, but not there yet.
I am out again guys, good luck

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Rally seems to be ending already, no strength at all

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There you have it, doesn't mean it will drop to a new low, buyers will probably catch it half way

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I think i am seeing now where this is headed. I will post a new analysis

botje11

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botje11

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