Bitcoin - Tops Versus Consolidation Periods Part II
Updated
This is a video follow-up from an analysis I did last year. I also speak a little about Bitcoin dominance and Litecoin. Hope you enjoy! The original analysis is linked at bottom.
This is not financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only!
-Victor Cobra
This is not financial advice - this is meant for speculation and entertainment only!
-Victor Cobra
Note
Interesting...if Bitcoin holds support here, it's still in the curved structure. There wasn't enough volume (and too much open interest on Derivatives) to push price higher. This is good for the market I think. Note
This is also the closest Bitcoin has gotten to the 100 day MA since October! It has a long way to fall on a deeper correction - perhaps all the way to the 9 month EMA, but alts are still looking strong, for now. So this could simply mean Bitcoin needs more consolidation and some alts will continue to outperform for the time being. Note
If Bitcoin can't hold the 100 day MA, price could fall all the way to the 9 month EMA (orange). This would drop price all the way to sub-40k. Definitely something that Bitcoin is capable of, so certainly wise to exercise some caution here. A successful test of the 9 month EMA could result in strong continuation, but the correction would be deeper than any retrace during the previous bull market. Note
This is the current structure with my original curve from this analysis. A break back above that resistance should send prices towards 60k again. Otherwise, I think there's a possibility the pink trendline holds, and if not, the the 100 day MA (yellow) can serve as strong support. Losing that, as mentioned above, can send prices spiraling far lower. Note
I would prefer to see Bitcoin head back to 60k from here and consolidate for a little while longer as alts continue to run, but you can't have it all :) If Bitcoin can break that curve again I will become more confident. Feeling a little cautious here.Note
Many people on tradingview seem to be expecting this "bear flag" to break down. When most of the top posts are short setups, I feel a little better. Sentiment wise, it would make sense for Bitcoin to bounce. This is one thing keeping me bullish here. People are getting tired of the consolidation, and down "seems" like the most likely narrative here. But already we had a long squeeze, so I think there is the potential for a short squeeze here instead. Definitely a no-trade zone.Note
Bounced off the trendline again. I changed my curved structure, because it's starting to look a little different. This shows it can perhaps aggressively dump sub 50k, but also that it can simply find support here and break out in may. The tax news from today can cause some lost momentum though. Note
Interesting that the bottom boundary of this curved formation held on the second drop. Not leaning bullish here anymore until price is taken back into the smaller curved channel. During previous bull market consolidation periods, that's what signaled that Bitcoin was ready for its next leg up. Still holding onto the 100 day MA. Note
Closing today's candle green would be a start Note
Bounced at the 100 day MA, tried to hold back within my original structure. I can see it following either the yellow or the red. On the downside, if BTC experiences a failure here due to lack of buyers, we can see it briefly touch down sub-40k. On the upside, I want to see more buyer volume and a breakout of this structure. 
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