"BTC Realtime Analyse #2"

Updated

Hi guys and welcome to my new BTC Realtime.
Again here i want to thanks all of you for your kind messages and comments on my last idea,many of you send me message that i helped you and aware them of this falling,many of them even short btc by my call.i see everyday many friends join us here and they really liked what we do here and i answer almost 20 message in day and i loved too. because of these i decided to do this more professional and regular and publish new "BTC RealTime" every Sunday and update every idea like what i done until now.As you my friend wants before i made a Telegram Channel that add here soon.
So back to the Great BTC(powerless now),as we saw in two last week btc almost do a little wave up and again failed to hold new trend line and continue dropping more.one of the main reasons that btc could't hold that stage was lack of enough Volume to confirm those broken resistances and we didn't saw volume just because of psychological issues and lack of trust in market.After a 3 H&S we reach this point that make our yellow scenario fresh again,so what was yellow scenario?
For those that didn't read our last ideas i open it briefly.Yellow scenario say that we started a Parallel Channel since 2015 and after Dec 2017 parabolic rise we made a roof for that channel,now we need to touch or close to its bottom again around 3300-5000.we made a huge triangle since near 4 month ago that was a bearish one that we believed we may drop out soon and go closer to our target by that.now we drop out of it but not much yet.
So now in my new chart you see 2 other Parallel channel in the huge yellow one,we can reach to bottom of yellow channel by those two smaller channel that is a great fib retracment lvl, or again by another flash drop that will make whole market crazy and after that we will break that channel too and HELL.but i draw 2 dotted line that make for btc double bottom and are potential reversal spots.
One week ago i posted a MACD chart,this one:

and now we are here,it's another prove that we can gow lower easy.

In Rsi we reach again to oversold are and it's have more room to go lower.

And now,after we arrived to 6600 area we did a small bounce that was really too little for last flash drop from 7600,but now we try to recover indicators and if we don't see a meaningful bounce we will go lower again but i think we see another bounce here.first target is 6400 area,that was a great support last time and i expect a real war to break that one.after that we have room till 5980.in the other side if btc can hold this lvl for a while we can reach 7200 easy for first step.but now we just need to see what signs we have.
i will update as soon as find a new sign.
Good Luck

Note

1 thing i forgot to say to you my friends.If my work helped you please like it to another people here can see it too.i try to promote it somewhere but its not enough.I had near 120 message and near 100 cm that all of them loved my last work but many of those who messaged me did not Like my work.So again,please help to spread this just by give it a like if that help you or agree with me.

Note

Thanks Again

Note

So i made all ways that can move btc to touch yellow old channel(since 2015) and end btc full correction after Dec 2017 ATH.
CH1=> Yellow channel from yellow scenario.(base one)
CH2=> Channel that we are in it since JAN 2018
CH3=> Channel that started from late Feb and March double top.(not have much credit)
CH4=> Started after drop of double top in March 2018(not have much credit and close to fail)
CH5=> Started from last 10k top in May 2018.
CH... and many failed channels till now.
I draw all these with a point.it's easy to connect several tops and bottom to each other and make a channel but they mean nothing.there isn't any ultimate support/resistance or certain things in financial markets.TA is science but not pure science.I said all of this to make you believe in unreliability of markets specially crypto market.moment that you bring your feeling in this work you loose hard.you must to be a paranoid computer.you must to have a plan for your every move.it can be more dangerous than gambling.i talk to those that short market yesterday and they have an open position yet without stop and full of confidence.
DON'T LET LOST WHAT YOU EARNED.

Note

If we don't go lower than this support and make reversal from here can thinks our triangle breakout was a fake one or something else like drawing bugs(??!!) bu we need to hold this area.

Note

Something like this.

Note

Hi Guys
last day after that sharp faliing,BTC made a bullish wedge with its sideway moving but because of lack in strength i did not inform you,but guess what happened?tha worked but not much strong exactly like i thought.now we testing that wedge as a support and need to go upper or again lower to 6600 support.we stick between this 2 sup/res and till market psychology don;t turn positive or any big guy don't drop a buy bomb,we will stay here.but if we go up by a big buyer we will see a simillar actions just like upper area between 7250-7750.make a sideway then up,make a sideway then down and repeat this.and if we reject lot time by resistance around 7900-8000 we will go lower for 6400 important are.
one another thing that all of you must to know it.as regards that i believe we must to go much lower to touch yellow big channel bottom,you need to aware of this reality that final cost of BTC that make it profitable for miners is in 6000-7000 area.lower that they just loose money.so this important fact make me think that maybe we will reach yellow channel bottom by a long term range movement between 6000-8000 area,something like my ch4 channel that i posted yesterday or failed red channel of last btc analyse.maybe.think this fact and say your opinion here in comments.

Note

another thing that i forgot to say.many my dear friends and followers messaged me and ask that what they should do after that short from 7600.i answer them here,add an stop around 7050 or close your position and wait for more accurate signals.now market can't read clearly.
PS:*in last update i wrote wong 7900-8000,it's 6900-7000 resistance.sorry

Note

It seems btc try to move upper by an IH&S,i don't post chart of it because don't trust in it in this stage.

Note

So confusing situation.we have many mix signal and patterns here.first all our last day movement like another bear flag but there is a good support below it but again we made a bearish wedge with our last movement here that have a target around 2 blue box that i think they are reversal point in this downward channel.we have positive and negative signs in MACD and a signs of bearish eversal in RSI.As i said before this area and situation surround with FUD and uncertainly and negative psychological effects make BTC stock here but i'm petty sure that we are close too another positive swing or reversal,mostly those blue boxes have potential to revers market way and most important or forts big step is break that green box.

Note

So,as i said i my last update we made a bear flag with bearish wedge at the bottom of it,so that wedge dropped and reached us to first potential reversal spot that i draw,for now we hold by this area.this are make for us a similar bottom with April bottom.as you can see in my new chart it's like we made a Falling Wedge(dotted lines) here with bullish look,but we need to confirm this wedge and find some new money and volume in market to bounce with this wedge.other indicators now have signs of more drop or at least more sideway here.i will come back with new signs and information soon.but for now be ready for start a new position.

Note

Look at this tiny pattern,it's not much reliable H&S but can push us lower to touch again the wedge.

Note

So as you can see it worked now we need to hold this new impact with wedge and low.

Note

Oh my god,it's just go much lower and break the wedge and reach to my second box and break it,not it have to come back.

Note

we made an impact with our downward channel from 10k and bounce up with this impact now.

Note

We are now trying to back to the wedge and if we push back again im sure that we will see 5900 soon.

Note

so this drop made our wedge more realistic.

Note

As i expected we went up from that area,now we have too test red box above as a Resistance and make another impact with our wedge,if we can break that resistance and go back to 6700 area means our wedge confirm finally and can end falling.i get ready to enter market for long again.

Note

See this to understand better where we are.we entering older wedge now.

Note

And we rejected by it,need fuel for another attempt.

Note

Now we need to hold this support and don't go lower that 6150.

Note

*that = than

Note

Another reject from that area and bearish look triangle

Note

But if we hold the triangle ,this iH&S can be the solution.

Note

BTC just trying hard to break that triangle and resistance above,it can push it to break wedge to if can break the triangle.

Note

So didi it,worked as i thought now we need to break that resistance area.that's strongest.

Note

Guys btc fight strong there,at least 2 iH&S made to broke that triangle finaly,if we can break this resistance too maybe we set a bottom for now and short term.

Note

Nice try here,we broke it and after that rejected buy it,now need to full fuel and try again.but if we go under last resistance it can made that triangle to a bearish wedge.

Note

For info:
we have bukish cross over in MACD short frames and need a little bounce to make crossover in 4hr.

Note

we are under ichimoku cloud in important time frames but broke it in 15m and enter it in 30m.

Note

But our RSI have sign of weakness in short time frames.

Note

maybe we drop little or make it recover with sideway action.

Note

so we broke that support with an almost iH&S,now it rejected a little but if we hold area above this support i will enter market with a tight stop.

Note

It seems we made a bearish wedge here(blue line),if that work we will touch red line again,but it can change and soon to confirm it.

Note

As i said in last update we dropped out of that wedge and now reach to the red line that has to hold,if don't hold it will print a break out of today's channel and need to find new ground again.

Note

So here we are,it seems bear market is over for short term and we started a rally to touch our downward trend upper trend line again and now it seems we climbing with a in a thin very tilt channel(red channel)if we hold this channel we have to break that resistance(red box,black dotted line,blue trend line).now it's to early to say this channel is our ultimate way up and every those resistances can change our channel and way.for example if now we drop to around 6320ish we will shape a Head for another H&S and that can move us to under 6000 area.Or even if we drop out of 6500 we will destroy this channel and make our path harder.
For now what is important is that we hold our bulish cross over in 4 hr MACD and we are above ichimoku cloud in shorter time frames like 1hr but we have little signs of weakness in RSI too.
what you have to not forget is that ,whole this movement is a retrace for our last drop and have specific targets to reach(resistance i draw in chart) specially that blue trend line that started from 10k.all of these means that we are still in donward channel that started from 10k and till we break the blue channel above and confirm it,we are bearish.but for swing traders like me it's an opportunity to trade.I entered market around 6380 last day but in my full cautious mode with tight stop.now i have stop around my entry point and i will update if find any signs.
Thanks you all for your supports and accompaniment with me,i have new record here for myself with answering 39 msj last day. Appreciate for all that trust.

Note

Guys check out my new idea about ADA.It's have a very bullish outlook and good for trade, if BTC don't ruin the PARTY.

Note

So btc moved just as i imagined till now and now is important for btc.as i said before if we drop out of this channel like my red arrow we will trigger another h&S that is very scary.

Note

Hello my friends,
Sorry that i did not updated last night but wow,it was a day,first perfect day in World Cup 2018,for me,you must thanks me that i didn't updated last night,lol,little hang over now and looking the chart and think now,why BTC is so selfish and can't see our happiness from somewhere else????now let's take a look at chart.

As i said yesterday possibilities,unfortunately BTC chose the worst one and dropped from its trendline like red arrow that i drew yesterday.as i said before and you can see in new chart that drop can cause a scary H&S.for now we have lot positive signs in chart and indicators but all those signs can be for printing the right shoulder.as you saw till now we hold the neckline and now completing the right shoulder,but it can failed and throw the H&S to garbage by bouncing upper than 6730,that will a great sign for us that shows we have a great support in 6400 area and lot potential to go higher,but with limits.untill now we didn't saw enough volume to confirm our movements or desire of market but as you see in chart we have a suitable vol to forming a H&S,unfortunately.
i will come back soon.

Note

I really avoid to talk about this kind of symmetrical triangles in crypto market.this patterns usually take months to form and almost always are continuation patterns that follows prior trend.in this case ,given that we just formed this pattern in last days,can consider it as a pennant or even a flag barely.but why i avoid to talk about this formations?because in crypto world just anyone with few Millions can print chart as he wants,so be careful.

Note

BTC Realtime #3,arrived with new update and good news.

Again Thanks for all your kind comments and togetherness,see you there.

Peymana71

Related publications

Yellow,Blue or Red?What will happend for BTC???

by Peymana71

BTC Realtime Analyse #1

by Peymana71

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.