BTC – Anatomy of a Covid Bull Run
Is the bull run over and have we seen the cyclic peak in price?
It is my contention that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that was unleashed on the world has had a pronounced effect on the psyche of the retail investor, their appetite for investment risk and as a result, has significantly muted the growth of BTC in this halving cycle. So much so, in fact, that we may not have recognised the market peak.
We saw the impact of Covid across Feb/Mar 2020 when BTC dropped a calamitous 62% in 3 weeks, but we have mostly discounted this as an anomaly, instead of factoring in the impact of Covid on future outcome expectations.
The case for the peak of the BTC bull market being 69k:
The case for only another 23% decline:
What do you think? Are we past the peak and now wading through the mire of a bear market cycle? Where will the bottom be? How long will it last?
It is my contention that the SARS-CoV-2 virus that was unleashed on the world has had a pronounced effect on the psyche of the retail investor, their appetite for investment risk and as a result, has significantly muted the growth of BTC in this halving cycle. So much so, in fact, that we may not have recognised the market peak.
We saw the impact of Covid across Feb/Mar 2020 when BTC dropped a calamitous 62% in 3 weeks, but we have mostly discounted this as an anomaly, instead of factoring in the impact of Covid on future outcome expectations.
The case for the peak of the BTC bull market being 69k:
- [* a clear and completed 5 wave movement up to 69k from the December 2018 low of 3.1k, a 20x move.
* The peak at 69k arrived in 18 months from the last halving. In similar timing to the previous cyclic peak (at 20k) from its prior halving.
* A bearish cross is evident in the monthly MACD
* The monthly RSI is in similar position and at a similar level to the bearish cross in the last bear market]
The case for only another 23% decline:
- [* While price declines have paused at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, the weakness in the chart signals further falls.
* The next Fibonacci retracement level (0.618) is at 28.2k where there is strong established support.
* In a cyclic bear market, Bitcoin has never fallen below its previous cyclical high. This makes it very unlikely that price will fall below 20k or extend to any lower Fibonacci retracement levels, making the 28k-
27K the lower bound for the correction. Another 23% below the current price of 36.6k.]
What do you think? Are we past the peak and now wading through the mire of a bear market cycle? Where will the bottom be? How long will it last?
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