2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Neutral. Bears did good but I do think a pullback is imminent and could easily retest 70000-71500. This whole move is W1 of the next bear trend and any short with stop above 75000 is good. We will likely see 60000 in the next 1-2 weeks.
comment: Bulls could spike this up tomorrow due to news but otherwise, they are done. This move down is W1 of the new bear trend down below 50000 (which is also still inside the big trading range). A pullback is around the corner and I would not sell below 67000 for now. There is still an open bull gap to 65800, which will likely be closed tomorrow. My two legged correction down (drawn on the weekly update) to 65000 is still valid.
current market cycle: trading range on the weekly chart - new bear trend on the daily chart
key levels: 65000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls need to stop this above 65000 or we could see some panic selling. I do think a retest of 73000+ is already out of the question. Best they can hope for is some short squeeze to 70000/71000 before we get another leg down. If they close Wednesday above 72000 I am wrong.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears doing really good, much better than expected and that can only mean that bulls are running for the exits and want their profits secured. A measured move down from here brings us exactly to 60000. There. Are. No. Coincidences.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral. Want to see a pullback higher to short this into oblivion over the next months.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: Mother of all double tops is what I expect to hold. So highs are likely in and we go down hard from here. 40000 is my target for the next 3-5 months.
current swing trade: Soon
trade of the day: Shorting 69000. Clear resistance and market tried 3 times and failed. Perfect head & shoulders pattern, measured move target down was 67000 and market reached it afterhours.
tl;dr
Bitcoin - Neutral. Bears did good but I do think a pullback is imminent and could easily retest 70000-71500. This whole move is W1 of the next bear trend and any short with stop above 75000 is good. We will likely see 60000 in the next 1-2 weeks.
comment: Bulls could spike this up tomorrow due to news but otherwise, they are done. This move down is W1 of the new bear trend down below 50000 (which is also still inside the big trading range). A pullback is around the corner and I would not sell below 67000 for now. There is still an open bull gap to 65800, which will likely be closed tomorrow. My two legged correction down (drawn on the weekly update) to 65000 is still valid.
current market cycle: trading range on the weekly chart - new bear trend on the daily chart
key levels: 65000 - 70000
bull case: Bulls need to stop this above 65000 or we could see some panic selling. I do think a retest of 73000+ is already out of the question. Best they can hope for is some short squeeze to 70000/71000 before we get another leg down. If they close Wednesday above 72000 I am wrong.
Invalidation is below 65000.
bear case: Bears doing really good, much better than expected and that can only mean that bulls are running for the exits and want their profits secured. A measured move down from here brings us exactly to 60000. There. Are. No. Coincidences.
Invalidation is above 72000.
short term: Neutral. Want to see a pullback higher to short this into oblivion over the next months.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-03: Mother of all double tops is what I expect to hold. So highs are likely in and we go down hard from here. 40000 is my target for the next 3-5 months.
current swing trade: Soon
trade of the day: Shorting 69000. Clear resistance and market tried 3 times and failed. Perfect head & shoulders pattern, measured move target down was 67000 and market reached it afterhours.
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