After the pump from $8,000 to $8,900 the Bitcoin price has stayed stable and it has started to move slightly downwards. The downwards movement has drawn some confirmed highs and lows and we can start to identify some good levels for further bounces/breakouts. Without a big talk, we start right away!
The bounce area at $8,250 - $8,430 (blue box)
As you see, the price moves slowly downwards and it has started to form a descending channel. If the BTC price makes a little throwback (movement downwards) then there is a pretty strong price level at $8,250-$8,430. This blue box consists of several price action criteria which all indicate that the next bounce should come exactly from this level.
The bounce area consists of:
1. "The trend is your friend" - Perfect, the bounce stays into the trend direction!
2. Previous resistance levels become support level (the orange line at $8,353), a classical role reversal or retest situation!
3. The trendline since 17. May, pulled from the wicks and having three touches. A bit subjective but it matches with this area and in overall it should act as a price supporter.
4. Channel (Bull FLag) bottom trendline should act as a support level and it matches also with our crossing area inside the blue box. Channels are usually parallel and the bottom channel trendline is a copy/paste from the upper trendline.
5. Fibonacci retracement 38%
6. Fibonacci retracement 62%
7. 1H EMA 200 is inside the box which should act as a support level
8. 4H EMA 50 is also inside the marked area and should act as a supporter.
As you see, this is actually a very strong price level. Multiple indications are matching each other inside the blue box at $8,250 - $8,430.
As always, perfect would be a bullish candlestick pattern on some of the higher timeframes (1H+)
Alert: Just below the blue box is a red area. If the 4H candle gets a close inside or below the red area then you should be very cautious. The trendline and the strong price levels get cracked after the close around the red area and this can be pretty nasty. So, watch out if the 4H candle gets a close inside or below the red box.
Bullish breakout - Bull Flag
The prementioned descending channel is actually a bullish/continuation chart pattern Bull Flag. The Bull Flag gets confirmed after the candle close above the upper trendline. The upper trendline is actually a counter trendline (small down-trendline) and if this breaks then those counter trendline breaks have guided the price multiple times into the bigger trend direction. So, wait for a breakout from the Bull Flag which should confirm further movement upwards. Better is a 4H candle close confirmation above the upper trendline! The pattern target and some waves can guide the price into my last target area around $10,000!
"If you asked me to distill trading down to its simplest form, I would say that it is a pattern recognition numbers game. We use market analysis to identify patterns, define the risk, and determine when to take profits. The trade either works or it doesn’t."
– Mark Douglas
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