Crypto update (Bitcoin). About to move soon (2-10 days)
Hey hey hey!
It's the week end again, you know what this means. Everything but crypto is closed. So time to take a look at crypto!
I just noticed that the last 3 months most of my crypto ideas were posted a friday saturday or sunday :p
Things moving slowly as we are now used too.
We are right under resistance.
What is the sentiment?
For investors, it is the same as the last 18 months.
On the potential sellers side (so the HODLers), they keep finding new reasons why this might be the bottom, and they are underwater, and they do not want to sell, so nothing has changed.
On the potential buyers side there is no sign of interest. Nothing is going on.
==> Nothing new.
For traders, the sentiment is shifting between long and short. On Bitmex we had 52% short 48% short for the past days and now we're at 50/50.
Bitfinex shorts are going up and longs down:
Remember what Daryl Guppy said, investors are slow traders are quick. They are the first one to change trends or spot trend changes.
So usually something happens...
And we are just below resistance + mid march is when I first suspected denial would end.
But the simple fact we are about to run into resistance forces the price to go somewhere.
It is not moving now because this market has 0 fundamentals whether you are pro or anti crypto,
and every one is waiting to see what "someone else" will do. So pretty much anyone with money can
decide what direction this will go.
IF I was that whale manipulating the price I would not pump it, as previous attempts were not successful,
they might want to pump it just to get their shorts filled thought, idk what they have in mind.
If we see a bull break of trendline 1 you can see trendline 2 is still waiting for us.
If we go above the 2, I do not know if the price will go to 5000$ or 7000$, Bitcoin for the past 12 months has been disapointment after disapointment, on the bull side. The follow up has kept being very weak. So I can't guess what price to short at, better short now and get SL if we go and close above the 2 resistances, while at the same time due to the consistent weak follow ups, I see no reason to buy.
In 2014 when such resistances were pierced, there was some follow up, BUT back then things were very different, 1 difference is the last 20 breakthrought were not pathetic...
Compare this to this time:
As well as MA100 breaks that I have shown in a previous idea, past 3 to 5 were really lame.
I regularly check a website that has a generic vision on social networks and sentiment has not changed, and what I am seeing is extremely enthusiastic - or trying to appear that way - bagholders most of the time underwater, and not a shred of interest from NEW BUYERS, you know, the only people that can make the price go up.
All I see are underwater cryptoer that tell everyone how wrong they are not to buy, and how they will miss out on their big chance, or how they just don't love crypto because they have missed out in the passed and "sour grapes" or whatever these clowns say. The only people in crypto is the FOMO crowd lmao.
Price falls 90%? Just noise, buy your crypto's and forget about it! Riiight...
Clearly, the only people in crypto are the kind of people we are used to seeing lose. It's always the same.
In human history these people have not won a single time. It NEVER happens!
What happens is they get stomped, and then find excuse.
You better brace yourselves, the excuses are going to come raining down like you never seen.
Therefore we do not go long until crypto takes a nose dive and dead cat bounces, because this is / has been very predictable and consistent :)
(I might make an idea where I explain what noise is by the way, in terms of average true range...and depending on strategies...)
Alts are mostly a little more bullish than Bitcoin, after being more bearish, so if we go down I expect really leading the charge will be Bitcoin.
All the smart money has left alts, only casual investors are left, they usually never sell. I would not short that. With very little interest to sell for the people left,
low liquidity, and FOMO traders, prices can easilly surge 200% or even much more (check my idea "The baggy dead stock bounce strategy ").
I strongly recommend against shorting any crypto other than Bitcoin and ETH (and Tether wink), and if possible on Bitmex where the liquidation bot will make sure you do not lose more than what you risked. There are plenty of much safer ways to make money out there...
But idk I could be wrong, maybe they will go to zero and you can make 99%? From experience thought, best to stay away.
If we do not fall fast / soon, like we stay below trendlines for 1 more month, might be time to GTFO and just forget about crypto.
It's the week end again, you know what this means. Everything but crypto is closed. So time to take a look at crypto!
I just noticed that the last 3 months most of my crypto ideas were posted a friday saturday or sunday :p
Things moving slowly as we are now used too.
We are right under resistance.
What is the sentiment?
For investors, it is the same as the last 18 months.
On the potential sellers side (so the HODLers), they keep finding new reasons why this might be the bottom, and they are underwater, and they do not want to sell, so nothing has changed.
On the potential buyers side there is no sign of interest. Nothing is going on.
==> Nothing new.
For traders, the sentiment is shifting between long and short. On Bitmex we had 52% short 48% short for the past days and now we're at 50/50.
Bitfinex shorts are going up and longs down:
Remember what Daryl Guppy said, investors are slow traders are quick. They are the first one to change trends or spot trend changes.
So usually something happens...
And we are just below resistance + mid march is when I first suspected denial would end.
But the simple fact we are about to run into resistance forces the price to go somewhere.
It is not moving now because this market has 0 fundamentals whether you are pro or anti crypto,
and every one is waiting to see what "someone else" will do. So pretty much anyone with money can
decide what direction this will go.
IF I was that whale manipulating the price I would not pump it, as previous attempts were not successful,
they might want to pump it just to get their shorts filled thought, idk what they have in mind.
If we see a bull break of trendline 1 you can see trendline 2 is still waiting for us.
If we go above the 2, I do not know if the price will go to 5000$ or 7000$, Bitcoin for the past 12 months has been disapointment after disapointment, on the bull side. The follow up has kept being very weak. So I can't guess what price to short at, better short now and get SL if we go and close above the 2 resistances, while at the same time due to the consistent weak follow ups, I see no reason to buy.
In 2014 when such resistances were pierced, there was some follow up, BUT back then things were very different, 1 difference is the last 20 breakthrought were not pathetic...
Compare this to this time:
As well as MA100 breaks that I have shown in a previous idea, past 3 to 5 were really lame.
I regularly check a website that has a generic vision on social networks and sentiment has not changed, and what I am seeing is extremely enthusiastic - or trying to appear that way - bagholders most of the time underwater, and not a shred of interest from NEW BUYERS, you know, the only people that can make the price go up.
All I see are underwater cryptoer that tell everyone how wrong they are not to buy, and how they will miss out on their big chance, or how they just don't love crypto because they have missed out in the passed and "sour grapes" or whatever these clowns say. The only people in crypto is the FOMO crowd lmao.
Price falls 90%? Just noise, buy your crypto's and forget about it! Riiight...
Clearly, the only people in crypto are the kind of people we are used to seeing lose. It's always the same.
In human history these people have not won a single time. It NEVER happens!
What happens is they get stomped, and then find excuse.
You better brace yourselves, the excuses are going to come raining down like you never seen.
Therefore we do not go long until crypto takes a nose dive and dead cat bounces, because this is / has been very predictable and consistent :)
(I might make an idea where I explain what noise is by the way, in terms of average true range...and depending on strategies...)
Alts are mostly a little more bullish than Bitcoin, after being more bearish, so if we go down I expect really leading the charge will be Bitcoin.
All the smart money has left alts, only casual investors are left, they usually never sell. I would not short that. With very little interest to sell for the people left,
low liquidity, and FOMO traders, prices can easilly surge 200% or even much more (check my idea "The baggy dead stock bounce strategy ").
I strongly recommend against shorting any crypto other than Bitcoin and ETH (and Tether wink), and if possible on Bitmex where the liquidation bot will make sure you do not lose more than what you risked. There are plenty of much safer ways to make money out there...
But idk I could be wrong, maybe they will go to zero and you can make 99%? From experience thought, best to stay away.
If we do not fall fast / soon, like we stay below trendlines for 1 more month, might be time to GTFO and just forget about crypto.
Note
How people behave let's us know where we are heading...Mid to late 2017: Me = "Guys, guys look crypto's are going up. Guys? Anyone heard about NEO? Hello? It has been clearly trending up it just keeps going up this is free money."
Repeated myself several times, never got an answer. People were literally ignoring me.
December 2017 - Early January 2018: Cryptoers = "Wow crypto is awesome look at my portfolio, I am rich (35,000$)" "Anyone into x y z coin?"
Me = "Nah guys I sold but I still trade crypto when it moves violently, get in, get out"
Cryptoers = "OMG why didn't you hold onto longer, you could have make 3 times as much, you must be so mad you sold early ^^" "Weak hand"
Q1-Q2 2018: Cryptoers = "Buy the dip" "The weak hands sold, get ready for the massive pump" "On the Ellen show crypto was mentionned, brace yourselves" "Famous singer with 50 million followers posted about crypto, it is going to explode!" "We are the early adopters guys" "Institutional money is going to flow in" "LOOK AT THIS PUMP! FINALLY THIS IS IT WE ARE GOING TO SKYROCKET"
Me = first "I think the bubble might be over" then "Ye ok Bitcoin is going to 3000$ then 1.5k then probably even lower"
"I always crack up at the 4000$ numbers :joy:" "Haha you are such a fool" "That's what they said last time"
Q3-Q4 2018: Me = "This is taking so long..." "We are getting weaker and weaker we will fall eventually but it's taking a while"
Cryptoers = "The strong support is not giving up" "Accumulation in progress" "Oh this is spring" "Look Bitcoin chart looks like gold" "This looks like the bull market is about to resume #HODL"
"The banks are afraid of Bitcoin they want to buy cheap we will never sell" "Give me your name so I make sure no one ever hires you" "I am going to find you and make you regret your words"
November 2018 - Q1 2019 : Me = "We hit denial"
Cryptoers = "This is it, capitulation" "The bottom is in!" "I always crack up when I see calls for $1500" "Hope you bought the dip" and to me "You are such a fool" "I sense sour grapes from a bad investor" "You are so mad you lose money in this market" "You just mad you missed out in 2017" "This is what they said last time" "We are the early adopters, derided, ignored, and will be rewarded immensly when mainstream attention starts)
(All early adopters got out a while ago btw, and people's grandma's know about crypto)
2021? Me = "See? Crypto was a bubble and this this and this was obvious"
Dumb dishonest cryptoers = "Oh ye it was obvious in hindsight wow you are so smart"
Lmao I had to explain to people the mathematical impossibility of a pyramid type scheme - or ANYTHING - to keep growing exponentially like it's not obvious to them and they still called me an idiot that didn't understand the complex technological advancements of crypto.
Choose what horse you want to bet on wisely, the barely literate idiots that have no clue and say it does not matter because crypto is different, or experienced traders and economists that have proven themselves in many markets.
Remember Charlie Lee sold Litecoin when it went exponential, remember Mark Karpelès says he does not believe in Bitcoin anymore, Craig Wright stopped supporting Bitcoin core, almost all early adopters are out of it...
Every bubble in the past had a "last time" where people called its fall too early and were wrong.
Absolutely idiotic cryptoers think some people being wrong in the past means what they said would happen will never happen...
If these people win I don't want to live on this planet anymore.
But they won't win, they never have and never will.
Note
A friend of mine has a math problem. Maybe you can help him.I'm such an autist, looking at charts in the middle of the weekend XD
And worse, I am getting excited and think I will have alot of fun
when markets open next week. Can't wait.
Note
It is POSSIBLE we finally started a downtrend.Note
Bahodlers really love these lines.The ultimate scam would be going to 4200 and then nose-diving.
There's bound to be some action soon, maybe tomorrow morning.
Note
Well, the desperate trolls are at it again.In a wild cry of despair they throw their unoriginal calls for 500 trillion $ per Bitcoin.
They end up on top of trading view but that doesn't mean there's buyers.
Just bagholders that can't resist their dose of hopium and are at risk of selling.
We got one of those again too:
They do their job I guess, as they manage to shill enough to get a few bears worrying.
But a handful of short sellers worrying & novice traders going long won't change much.
It is highely likely we go up test that "neckline" if they manage to suck enough fools in, then dump dump dump. Well idk how likely, that's what happened last times. But there is no one wanting to buy so I don't think this can go very far.
I am 99.99% sure there are alot of people waiting for 1k.
When the price knife falls drops to 1600 or 1750 or something like that and start reversing all these people interested to buy at 1000. That price will be close enough to 1000 for them to hesitate to buy, and as they see it go up up up after getting so close they are not going to want to miss their buy just for a few hundreds. And I think this will push the price to 3000 possibly even more.
Another interesting thing. About these shills.
AngeloBTC that made an idea to 30k recently, he has 125k followers on twitter and is active, but hadn't post on tradingview since July 2017.
Unless his account got bought by "them" (the whales manipulating the price and using bots to shill crypto), it looks like he is finally starting to sweat :)
You know there's several kind of shills:
* The ones that are controlled by whales, bought accounts, bots, etc.
Popular "influencers" that lost their money and ended up selling to a whale is probably more common than we think.
* The ones that kept shilling in March-July 2018 and probably took a loss
* The ones that had an average cost of $6000 per Bitcoin and massively shilled 6 months ago, in particular in october-november as crypto was flatening on 6k, riiight before price fell.
* The ones that started panicking or at least shilling more when Bitcoin fell to 3000 (Angelo probably?) "what a cheap price" "you would have killed for 3000 btc 18 months ago" they can't understand why no one buys, it's like they're discovering market cycles, it's fascinating.
* The ones that were "laffing" 6 months ago and "I am 10 times above my entry why would I be worried?" If Bitcoin starts going down you'll see "OG's" that were "laffing" start making calls to 1 million too, try to get people excited.
There are quite a few shills on twitter that quit. They were talking and talking and talking, and then just quit. Either got banned and did not come back, or left suddenly after blowing up, or posted a message of goodbye. LMAO!
Most of these dummies on twitter block me after I present them with cold hard facts, so it's hard for me to keep track and watch them fall :(
Also the guys that just vanish. Like ParabolicTrav, his last post is from september 2017. He just disappeared. Poof. Did he get murdered for his crypto?
Guy just vanished.
Note
Making charts like this helps me deal with the humongous unbelievable waiting with Bitcoin.What if it looked like this?
I want BTC to fall, then I go long, and then I am OUT.
What is this circus seriously?
I am ignoring strategies even good ones that take more than 1 week to complete because it's too long for me and THIS SCAM IS TAKING EONS.
No one wants to buy, baggies think an angel will appear and save them? After months? Why, because he was resting and then thoguht "oh right I want to buy this"
Do they think buyers are jerking off? They didn't come 2 months ago but they'll come now?
Or they think if & when the order book is thin enough and someone pumps the price he will pump it all the way to 15k? Rofl. Maybe 6k if you get lucky. Keep dreaming. If we put huge walls will this kill their hope?
We are waiting for the pain threshold.
This is literally waiting for a retarded kid to open the door for you.
You could do it in a sec, but you are forced to watch him struggle and not want to and put the key upside down for weeks.
I'd rather lose quick and go next than wait 184 months with frozen capital.
It might go up to 4200 scam complete idiots, then finally start a downtrend.
It should happen this week or the next, so not too long now, but still. GODDAMMIT.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.