Bottom is in? BTC formed a curve channel
Updated
Hi All,
Before I start with this TA I just would like to let you know that I don’t update or post a new TA on a daily basis unless there is a major change from my previous TA. This is not because I don’t care about you but rather I don’t want to confuse you more when we are already in such a manipulated market (if you haven’t already noticed that most of indicators/patterns, such as h&s, EMA, divergence, breakout of a pattern, have been deceiving lately).
From my previous TA (re-attached below), BTC did get rejected from the 8.9k level in which I have shown you the exact resistance level. Thereafter BTC found support at 7.9k in which I have also labelled the exact support level in my previous TA. I have also mentioned that if you are a swing trader you can add long positions at each support level, or add short positions at each resistance level. You would have made some profits if you did swing trade your long/short positions at those support/resistance level.
So, what is BTC going to do next? As you can see from the chart above, BTC has started to curve to the upside and started to form the bottom of the cup. The curve channel/trendline is not randomly drawn. If you look at the curve trendline closely, BTC’s price action has been following the trendline beautifully. This is one of the reasons that I have become from a permabear to a short-term neutral to bearish Taiwan Bear.
By looking at the support levels and Elliott Waves, there is a chance that the bottom is in. As well, I can see some traders (even the conservative ones) are starting to add their long-term positions without SL. The sentiment has really changed and, as a result, whether BTC will even drop below 8k remains questionable. However, what worries me is that BTC is now in the middle of the curve channel. Technically, BTC could still drop to the bottom of the curve channel (or even have a wick pierce through the channel), which is also at around the
4K-5k level that I have been mentioning for months. As well, if you have a look of the log chart below there is certainly some downside potential. Whether BTC will get to that level, who knows! To me, the easiest way is to follow the trend:
Short term: Neutral to bearish
Long term: Bullish
How am I going to trade? I will be adding long term positions to my portfolio whenever an altcoin hits the bottom of its uptrend channel or when it hits a significant support level.
To provide you with an example - if my capitals were 10k. I would allocate 8k to the 5 main coins that I see have the most potential and the remaining 2k across other altcoins (to diversify risk). And, let’s say, one of the 5 main coins is LTC. My capital allocation to LTC would be 1.6k (8k/5). I then look at what is the good support level for LTC. In my opinion I think $110, $125, $135 are all very good support for LTC. Then, as per my strategy I would allocate 25% of the 1.6k at the $110 price level, 40% at $125, 25% at $135, and the remaining 10% at $100 to utilise the advantage if the price does drop below the most significant support.
Hopefully you have found this TA useful.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Before I start with this TA I just would like to let you know that I don’t update or post a new TA on a daily basis unless there is a major change from my previous TA. This is not because I don’t care about you but rather I don’t want to confuse you more when we are already in such a manipulated market (if you haven’t already noticed that most of indicators/patterns, such as h&s, EMA, divergence, breakout of a pattern, have been deceiving lately).
From my previous TA (re-attached below), BTC did get rejected from the 8.9k level in which I have shown you the exact resistance level. Thereafter BTC found support at 7.9k in which I have also labelled the exact support level in my previous TA. I have also mentioned that if you are a swing trader you can add long positions at each support level, or add short positions at each resistance level. You would have made some profits if you did swing trade your long/short positions at those support/resistance level.
So, what is BTC going to do next? As you can see from the chart above, BTC has started to curve to the upside and started to form the bottom of the cup. The curve channel/trendline is not randomly drawn. If you look at the curve trendline closely, BTC’s price action has been following the trendline beautifully. This is one of the reasons that I have become from a permabear to a short-term neutral to bearish Taiwan Bear.
By looking at the support levels and Elliott Waves, there is a chance that the bottom is in. As well, I can see some traders (even the conservative ones) are starting to add their long-term positions without SL. The sentiment has really changed and, as a result, whether BTC will even drop below 8k remains questionable. However, what worries me is that BTC is now in the middle of the curve channel. Technically, BTC could still drop to the bottom of the curve channel (or even have a wick pierce through the channel), which is also at around the
4K-5k level that I have been mentioning for months. As well, if you have a look of the log chart below there is certainly some downside potential. Whether BTC will get to that level, who knows! To me, the easiest way is to follow the trend:Short term: Neutral to bearish
Long term: Bullish
How am I going to trade? I will be adding long term positions to my portfolio whenever an altcoin hits the bottom of its uptrend channel or when it hits a significant support level.
To provide you with an example - if my capitals were 10k. I would allocate 8k to the 5 main coins that I see have the most potential and the remaining 2k across other altcoins (to diversify risk). And, let’s say, one of the 5 main coins is LTC. My capital allocation to LTC would be 1.6k (8k/5). I then look at what is the good support level for LTC. In my opinion I think $110, $125, $135 are all very good support for LTC. Then, as per my strategy I would allocate 25% of the 1.6k at the $110 price level, 40% at $125, 25% at $135, and the remaining 10% at $100 to utilise the advantage if the price does drop below the most significant support.
Hopefully you have found this TA useful.
Taiwan Bear
******************************************************************************************
Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Note
Previous TA:Note
Log chart:Note
Just to show you from another perspective: Fractals + potential butterfly patternNote
Hi guys, Below is a chart that is purely based on structures and there is no trendline involved. I can see that some traders only talk about the big triangle formation but has completely forgotten the importance of price structure. When I analyse a chart, I look at the structure first then the trendline, not the other way around.
BTC has formed a daily inside bar and if it happens to break down, BTC should go down and retest the 6.8k-7.1k price level. As a result, I would move my highest ladder buy in position from $7230 to $6875.
Conversely, if BTC can break above 7.9k, watch for the price action between 8.3k-8.9k. Any rejection would be very bearish and could send BTC straight down to retest 6.8 IF, 7.9k cannot hold.
There are some formations suggesting BTC to go down to below 5k, The below chart is just to show you a possibility so you can make you plan based on your trading strategy. Please note the formation may or may not complete.
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