Hello Traders, here is my analysis for BTCUSD.
Wow... what a day for the markets. If you recall in my post yesterday, I stated that the rally after the FOMC meeting was due to the news and was not a technical bounce. Today we see the result of that "fakeout". Since I started posting on trading view I have been warning traders that BTC was trading in mature Bear Flag formation and that a breakdown was imminent. - That breakdown has been initiated...
*** Note on Technical Analysis***
- On April 30th I made a post titled "Is a breakdown to $34K Imminent?" No I don't have a magical crystal ball, but I do know how to read the charts. I tell you this not to brag but to show you that it is absolutely possible to predict price movements by using technical analysis and closely watching for specific signals that the chart will give you.
- I'm sure you've seen the "Moonboys" on youtube and social media claiming "BTC is headed for new ATH's! and it's impossible for BTC to break $37K!"
- One of the keys to success in trading is being direction neutral and not letting your emotions cloud your judgement.
- You want to approach trading from a logical perspective not emotional.
BTC Analysis: Bearish
- BTC finally got the big move we were expecting. As you know BTC has been trading in a macro bear flag for months and was showing signs of weakness in the last couple of weeks.
- Our target of $34.4K has not been hit yet but most likely will be soon.
- I am expecting a decent size bounce off that level possibly up to $37.5K, which is major support turned resistance.
- If BTC is rejected off $37.5K expect further downside continuation back to $34.4K then to the next major support level at $32.9K.
- Eventually BTC will trend down the the low $30K region and may consolidate there for a while before continuing lower.
What would make BTC Bullish again?
- Th first major resistance level that BTC would need to break to have any Bullish hopes would be the major resistance at $37.5K
- Beyond that, the analysis from yesterdays post still applies which is BTC would need to break $43K to have a shot at $50K
- Based off my analysis there is a very low probability of this happening. But it's important to consider all possible scenarios.
***Keep in mind these moves could happen in days or weeks, either way as traders we do not care. We will adjust accordingly and maneuver in accordance with the charts!
Trade Setup
**1st, this trade setup is only valid through tomorrow morning. I like to take high probability trades and the longer it takes BTC to hit $34.4K the lower the probability of a large bounce.
- I will enter a long position in BTC if it breaks $35K by tomorrow morning. (If I decide to wait longer I will let you guys know in a comment update)
- My entry is anything below $35K
- There are 2 "Take Profit" levels
1) $36,321 - .618 FIB Level
2) $37.5K - Major Resistance
- I will add to the position if BTC drops in price before bouncing.
- Move stop loss into break even once price is in the profit by a couple percent.
If you have any questions feel free to message me or comment below.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
Wow... what a day for the markets. If you recall in my post yesterday, I stated that the rally after the FOMC meeting was due to the news and was not a technical bounce. Today we see the result of that "fakeout". Since I started posting on trading view I have been warning traders that BTC was trading in mature Bear Flag formation and that a breakdown was imminent. - That breakdown has been initiated...
*** Note on Technical Analysis***
- On April 30th I made a post titled "Is a breakdown to $34K Imminent?" No I don't have a magical crystal ball, but I do know how to read the charts. I tell you this not to brag but to show you that it is absolutely possible to predict price movements by using technical analysis and closely watching for specific signals that the chart will give you.
- I'm sure you've seen the "Moonboys" on youtube and social media claiming "BTC is headed for new ATH's! and it's impossible for BTC to break $37K!"
- One of the keys to success in trading is being direction neutral and not letting your emotions cloud your judgement.
- You want to approach trading from a logical perspective not emotional.
BTC Analysis: Bearish
- BTC finally got the big move we were expecting. As you know BTC has been trading in a macro bear flag for months and was showing signs of weakness in the last couple of weeks.
- Our target of $34.4K has not been hit yet but most likely will be soon.
- I am expecting a decent size bounce off that level possibly up to $37.5K, which is major support turned resistance.
- If BTC is rejected off $37.5K expect further downside continuation back to $34.4K then to the next major support level at $32.9K.
- Eventually BTC will trend down the the low $30K region and may consolidate there for a while before continuing lower.
What would make BTC Bullish again?
- Th first major resistance level that BTC would need to break to have any Bullish hopes would be the major resistance at $37.5K
- Beyond that, the analysis from yesterdays post still applies which is BTC would need to break $43K to have a shot at $50K
- Based off my analysis there is a very low probability of this happening. But it's important to consider all possible scenarios.
***Keep in mind these moves could happen in days or weeks, either way as traders we do not care. We will adjust accordingly and maneuver in accordance with the charts!
Trade Setup
**1st, this trade setup is only valid through tomorrow morning. I like to take high probability trades and the longer it takes BTC to hit $34.4K the lower the probability of a large bounce.
- I will enter a long position in BTC if it breaks $35K by tomorrow morning. (If I decide to wait longer I will let you guys know in a comment update)
- My entry is anything below $35K
- There are 2 "Take Profit" levels
1) $36,321 - .618 FIB Level
2) $37.5K - Major Resistance
- I will add to the position if BTC drops in price before bouncing.
- Move stop loss into break even once price is in the profit by a couple percent.
If you have any questions feel free to message me or comment below.
Thanks everyone and best of luck trading!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.