BTC - wyckoff analysis (2nd update)
Updated
Hi all,
I would like to update my privous wyckoff analysis for BTC.
Globally, the structure and expected planning for BTC prices are the same. This time, there is one change: The second ST as SOW (*) appeared after PPI and CPI releases.
In the chart, I highlight also the schedule of the passed and future FOMC meetings (black) and CPI releases (blue). We all know how important these events are.
It can be seen that BTC and markets immediately react to each CPI release, usually reversal to the downtrend, from June (at least).
However, we see two times when BTC didn't fall after CPI. The first time, it was in mid July and uptrend was starting with a hammer candle.
The second time was yesterday with a similar candle.
Let's see what is coming next.
(*) Following Wyckoff theory, one may observe several retests of support (ST) during a phase. We are in Phase-B.
I would like to update my privous wyckoff analysis for BTC.
Globally, the structure and expected planning for BTC prices are the same. This time, there is one change: The second ST as SOW (*) appeared after PPI and CPI releases.
In the chart, I highlight also the schedule of the passed and future FOMC meetings (black) and CPI releases (blue). We all know how important these events are.
It can be seen that BTC and markets immediately react to each CPI release, usually reversal to the downtrend, from June (at least).
However, we see two times when BTC didn't fall after CPI. The first time, it was in mid July and uptrend was starting with a hammer candle.
The second time was yesterday with a similar candle.
Let's see what is coming next.
(*) Following Wyckoff theory, one may observe several retests of support (ST) during a phase. We are in Phase-B.
Note
BTC is at the point of breaking out. Obviously, we can think about two following scenarios:- "A": BTC will break th resistance (around $20000) to go higher. This scenario is also in line this Wyckoff analysis.
- "B": BTC will lose the current support and go to the next one (around $16000 -$17000). This means the Wyckoff analysis will be invalid in this case.
Volume indicators like MFI, CMF are also at crucial points but we may not have a confluence this time. MFI is about to break out the local trendline to go higher (need to confirm with a 2D candle). However, CMF is still under a very strong resistance (longterm trendline since november 2021) where it may touch this trendline for the third time (usually a rejection).
If both MFI and CMF are rejected by their trendlines, the next moves will be in favor of bears. It implies that scenario B will follow.
If luck is on bulls' side because MFI will break the trendline, we will have an Uptober, very likely. However, this is not a reveral sign of BTC and Alts as the marcro context is still very bad.
Note
BTC has consolidated right above the support line for a month.Finally, it is taking off and break the strong resistance EMA 50D.
The next destimation is the resistance line (around $23000)?
Note
It seems that the scenario A is about to happen.Note
BTC is consolidating in a bull flag. Will it reach $22500 soon?Note
The recent moves of BTC reminds me of this Wyckoff analysis.Now, it has chances to hold...
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