Hi guys. hope you guys are healthy and energetic, at this autumn season! btc, so boring. now dropped again. yes, we all had hopes of going above 7k. but for now, guys, this would not come today, tomorrow, or next week. we might even go lower, next month or this month. i will tell you some of my thoughts now.
so last time i told you before at oct 8~9th, if we do not go above 6800, sell your positions. it does not look good now.even if we bounce now,it looks gloomy mid term. we came down to 6500ish for now, we can get a bounce but does not look good though.
anyways, lets look at the charts.
so we broke down 60ma daily support, doesn't mean it totally broke down, but touching below that level is no good. daily stoch banding down, with consistent bear divergence, volume decrease not good. all this bounces is happening with no bottoming process!
so it is weak. especially when we could not surpass the 6700/6800 level at october 8th, 9th, we are not facing major resistance above levels. not good really. we can only now think of 6500/6550 support, if we break down 6500, and onto 6450 now, it means we can see hell.
so indicators for btc does not look good. we have three scenarios left.
first we go all the way to the right line of the falling wedge resistance at 6.9/7.0, and go up, staying inside the red ichimoku resistance above 6550 for next two weeks. this is the most bullish scenario for now. next two scenarios, basically we stay inside for while/ or fall outside the triangle, go sideways but fall deep down eventually.
if we fall down now at early/mid october to 5k, we can think about going above 6800 at early november/or late october, if we go sideways like this for october, we might even get that big fall at november, which, will take some more long time to go up.
weekly basis, we are still in a bear flag guys. we are still in major downtrend, which can break down any moment.
reason for this, we have two problems, or trends we have to take care of. big falling wedge that targets 5k, and long uptrendline for btc. the green box around 4.9~5.2k matches the target price. after that i believe we go up, up, up.
ok? so don't be so afraid guys. even of we go down, i believe in terms of btc, it will be a 1000~1500 dollar drop. about 20%~30% drop. but after that, i believe we will go up, high, next year.
short term trade, for now, is this chart here.
we are at major support, 6500ish, bottom of the triangle. indicators are oversold short term, i think you can go long. we can short after a bounce.
trading plans are
1. open longs(bitfinex price)
6510~6550
target:6600/6680
(for bitmex, 6440~6470 area)
->this is happening now
stoploss:6500(bitfinex)-tighter one, 6470(less tighter one)
2. open short
6640~6680(bitmex 6580~6620) let's see. if we do not see a good bounce now, and closing at 6500/6550 tomorrow, we drop more. we short then.
good trading!
so last time i told you before at oct 8~9th, if we do not go above 6800, sell your positions. it does not look good now.even if we bounce now,it looks gloomy mid term. we came down to 6500ish for now, we can get a bounce but does not look good though.
anyways, lets look at the charts.
so we broke down 60ma daily support, doesn't mean it totally broke down, but touching below that level is no good. daily stoch banding down, with consistent bear divergence, volume decrease not good. all this bounces is happening with no bottoming process!
so it is weak. especially when we could not surpass the 6700/6800 level at october 8th, 9th, we are not facing major resistance above levels. not good really. we can only now think of 6500/6550 support, if we break down 6500, and onto 6450 now, it means we can see hell.
so indicators for btc does not look good. we have three scenarios left.
first we go all the way to the right line of the falling wedge resistance at 6.9/7.0, and go up, staying inside the red ichimoku resistance above 6550 for next two weeks. this is the most bullish scenario for now. next two scenarios, basically we stay inside for while/ or fall outside the triangle, go sideways but fall deep down eventually.
if we fall down now at early/mid october to 5k, we can think about going above 6800 at early november/or late october, if we go sideways like this for october, we might even get that big fall at november, which, will take some more long time to go up.
weekly basis, we are still in a bear flag guys. we are still in major downtrend, which can break down any moment.
reason for this, we have two problems, or trends we have to take care of. big falling wedge that targets 5k, and long uptrendline for btc. the green box around 4.9~5.2k matches the target price. after that i believe we go up, up, up.
ok? so don't be so afraid guys. even of we go down, i believe in terms of btc, it will be a 1000~1500 dollar drop. about 20%~30% drop. but after that, i believe we will go up, high, next year.
short term trade, for now, is this chart here.
we are at major support, 6500ish, bottom of the triangle. indicators are oversold short term, i think you can go long. we can short after a bounce.
trading plans are
1. open longs(bitfinex price)
6510~6550
target:6600/6680
(for bitmex, 6440~6470 area)
->this is happening now
stoploss:6500(bitfinex)-tighter one, 6470(less tighter one)
2. open short
6640~6680(bitmex 6580~6620) let's see. if we do not see a good bounce now, and closing at 6500/6550 tomorrow, we drop more. we short then.
good trading!
Trade active
so i got in btc long position at 6464(bitmex), plan to add just a little bit more when it comes down. also, i plan to sell right away, if we close below 6550/60 in coming daily close tomorrow. we might risk more drop. this trade needs tight stoploss at 6500, or 6470 at the lowest. lets see if we can get back in the triangle channel.Note
If you have gotninti btc longs take some profit at 6640 level now. Like 40%.it might retrace a bit before and after daily close.Note
What did i tell you guys?uptrend failed. Failed! Srill believe in 7k? No no.i opened shorts at 6629.Note
Note
Note
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.