As you all can tell BTC has been very bullish over the last 24 hours. Slowing pushing its way upward to the .618 fib.
However, buying into the .618 fib level is rarely a good idea. This is because the .618 fib is often a retracement point for a trend and as you can see, BTC is struggling to break this level.
This indicates that an harmonic ABCD pattern may be forming. Which If this would be prove right. We could see lows as low as $3,850
Not only is there a potential ABCD pattern in place, there is also a Bearish Bat Pattern which has formed. Giving us an even further indication that reversal is likely.
So IF BTC fail break through .618 fib level, I will wait for it to falls/closes below the .5 fib level for confirmation. At this point I would reanalyze, and likely place a short.
This is a very risky trade due to the amount of fomo in the current market. Mean as a precaution, I would likely take profit at the fib levels mentioned and re-enter the trade accordingly.
IF the pattern completes itself, we could see profits all the way down to 3800's.
IF the Gartley Pattern does not complete itself, and we push further up to the .786, the ABCD pattern would still remain a possibility.
IF the .786 level fails, the retracement has failed, and I will wait for an opportunity to go Long.
note: I currently hold no position.. I am just keeping you updated with some of the possibilities. Any criticism is welcome.
DISCLAIMER:
Please note I am only providing my own trading information for your benefit and insight to my trading techniques, you should do your own due diligence and not take this information as a trade signal.