Bitcoin - You'll Get Another Chance at $3500 ;)
Updated
Yes the hype has begun as evident from the numerous bloggers that were talking of an apocalypse to 1500 only a couple months ago, are in full bull mode. They have now shed their skin and are in full hype mode, but tread wary. I will admit to being a perma bull. Whether it is stocks, or gold and silver, long term investing is simple way to catch broader moves. Those that dollar cost average almost always outperform the wannabe trader. The reason is simple, markets trend up in the longer term.
For those new to investing and trading, don't follow the hype. Have a strategy and stick to your plan. The simplest strategy you can have is dollar cost averaging. It works though many of the "analysts" here who are still struggling with Algebra will tell you differently.
Does news drive the markets? NO!
Sentiment drives markets though news can often act as catalyst for a change in sentiment. Did we miss the approval of an ETF? Did Warren Buffet finally dive into Bitcoin? Did the Saudi's hack Jamie Dimon's phone and find a Jaxx wallet on it? NO! There was simply no news that sparked this rally. My personal opinion about the move in Bitcoin is the dwindling float, which I wrote about a last week. Since the crypto winter started last year, larger institutions and investors have been slowly accumulating the float. Once float dries up, it is all about supply and demand. We knew this not because I spent $5 to get my palm read, but because they told us, it was released in their SEC statements.
There were also some other indicators that do not show up in an oscillator. The rise of the fake-outs. We also wrote about this, and why it may have been an early indicator of a potential bullish swing on the horizon.
Regardless the float is drying up and it is likely to dry up more as sentiment increases, so where are we at?
There was a lot of accumulation under the 4200 level, and those that sold there will be looking to buy anywhere close to this level. In my opinion this is the lower support level and an area I also am interested in adding for the long term. However the hype has begun and I am looking at the 4450 area for a interim pullback and area to go long with a swing trade and add to my position. Now 4200 is not a 60-1 long shot, it can happen, but everyone and their brother will be looking to buy there so more like 8-1. 3500? There is your 15-1 long shot, but it can happen. "Smileandsaycheese" finished first last week at 16-1 out of the 8 spot! Yes everyone will be looking to buy there especially those that sold out like wusses afraid Bitcoin was going to 1500, which oddly enough I do not see on anyone's charts currently. hmmmmmm.
Anyways the move has all the characteristics of a 3rd wave, and it may not be done yet. The 4600-4750 area is the minimum pullback I would need to see to consider wave (iii) completed. Remember it is sentiment that drives market, and this next pullback will provide a lot of insight into the actual sentiment of the market. There is the possibility that we already completed wave (iii). This makes the 5500 a significant level from a technical standpoint. This could also be an interim sucker wave. So as I mentioned to our followers watch for a reversal here or at 5500 and completion of wave (iii). I see many have 5800 on their charts which is a technical level, but it is also the Mr. Obvious level as well. 5500 is less obvious which gives it more weight for completion of either the (iii) or (v) wave. Regardless there is nothing to do until we see a pullback and consolidation.
In the end sentiment drives markets not news. This move came out of no-where, and caught everyone off guard. Sentiment is clearly changing and those that were calling for 1500-2500 are trying to get TV to erase those posts. I mean how do you put Short on a chart last week, then long the next? There were signs all around us, the alt coin market was showing spikes. Grey Scale was accumulating since May of last year, and many endowment and hedge funds were slowly accumulating as well. We were seeing more and more fake-outs, the only thing we didn't know was when?
In fairness I closed a position trade just under 4k. That is likely gone, and I doubt we get another chance at $3500. At least in the short term, but hey anything can happen, and my cash pile is just sitting there waiting to buy the dip. I did add some fresh money at 3650 and that is pegged for the broader move. Not selling that, it is in cold storage, consider it in a deep freeze. Of course there is a price that will have me taking some of my coins out of the freezer but we are no where near that.
In the meantime, I will sit back, relax and enjoy the run, drink my cup of coffee, and wait to buy the pullback. I am in no rush, I have the patience of a rock and I am not scrambling to get back in. After all I had to hear for the past year how stupid I was for buying the dip, and not trading every-day. Well my cost average with Bitcoin position trading is just above 4200 I am happy with that. My swing trading account in cryptos is was up 10% last year, up a little over 5% this year, that is respectful in my opinion. Not the 450% ROI's many seem to get every two or three months. Many blew out there accounts trying to trade an unfavorable environment and hit home runs.
If you have over 2-3 swing trades on at once you are not a trader, you are a gambler, at least in this market.
Where is that guy that said "why not sell here and buy lower you moron, it's a bear market" when Bitcoin was around 3500. That was actually my sign to bring in some fresh money and you were the reason I added at 3600! So thanks to the un-named troll(s).
For those new to investing and trading, don't follow the hype. Have a strategy and stick to your plan. The simplest strategy you can have is dollar cost averaging. It works though many of the "analysts" here who are still struggling with Algebra will tell you differently.
Does news drive the markets? NO!
Sentiment drives markets though news can often act as catalyst for a change in sentiment. Did we miss the approval of an ETF? Did Warren Buffet finally dive into Bitcoin? Did the Saudi's hack Jamie Dimon's phone and find a Jaxx wallet on it? NO! There was simply no news that sparked this rally. My personal opinion about the move in Bitcoin is the dwindling float, which I wrote about a last week. Since the crypto winter started last year, larger institutions and investors have been slowly accumulating the float. Once float dries up, it is all about supply and demand. We knew this not because I spent $5 to get my palm read, but because they told us, it was released in their SEC statements.
There were also some other indicators that do not show up in an oscillator. The rise of the fake-outs. We also wrote about this, and why it may have been an early indicator of a potential bullish swing on the horizon.
Regardless the float is drying up and it is likely to dry up more as sentiment increases, so where are we at?
There was a lot of accumulation under the 4200 level, and those that sold there will be looking to buy anywhere close to this level. In my opinion this is the lower support level and an area I also am interested in adding for the long term. However the hype has begun and I am looking at the 4450 area for a interim pullback and area to go long with a swing trade and add to my position. Now 4200 is not a 60-1 long shot, it can happen, but everyone and their brother will be looking to buy there so more like 8-1. 3500? There is your 15-1 long shot, but it can happen. "Smileandsaycheese" finished first last week at 16-1 out of the 8 spot! Yes everyone will be looking to buy there especially those that sold out like wusses afraid Bitcoin was going to 1500, which oddly enough I do not see on anyone's charts currently. hmmmmmm.
Anyways the move has all the characteristics of a 3rd wave, and it may not be done yet. The 4600-4750 area is the minimum pullback I would need to see to consider wave (iii) completed. Remember it is sentiment that drives market, and this next pullback will provide a lot of insight into the actual sentiment of the market. There is the possibility that we already completed wave (iii). This makes the 5500 a significant level from a technical standpoint. This could also be an interim sucker wave. So as I mentioned to our followers watch for a reversal here or at 5500 and completion of wave (iii). I see many have 5800 on their charts which is a technical level, but it is also the Mr. Obvious level as well. 5500 is less obvious which gives it more weight for completion of either the (iii) or (v) wave. Regardless there is nothing to do until we see a pullback and consolidation.
In the end sentiment drives markets not news. This move came out of no-where, and caught everyone off guard. Sentiment is clearly changing and those that were calling for 1500-2500 are trying to get TV to erase those posts. I mean how do you put Short on a chart last week, then long the next? There were signs all around us, the alt coin market was showing spikes. Grey Scale was accumulating since May of last year, and many endowment and hedge funds were slowly accumulating as well. We were seeing more and more fake-outs, the only thing we didn't know was when?
In fairness I closed a position trade just under 4k. That is likely gone, and I doubt we get another chance at $3500. At least in the short term, but hey anything can happen, and my cash pile is just sitting there waiting to buy the dip. I did add some fresh money at 3650 and that is pegged for the broader move. Not selling that, it is in cold storage, consider it in a deep freeze. Of course there is a price that will have me taking some of my coins out of the freezer but we are no where near that.
In the meantime, I will sit back, relax and enjoy the run, drink my cup of coffee, and wait to buy the pullback. I am in no rush, I have the patience of a rock and I am not scrambling to get back in. After all I had to hear for the past year how stupid I was for buying the dip, and not trading every-day. Well my cost average with Bitcoin position trading is just above 4200 I am happy with that. My swing trading account in cryptos is was up 10% last year, up a little over 5% this year, that is respectful in my opinion. Not the 450% ROI's many seem to get every two or three months. Many blew out there accounts trying to trade an unfavorable environment and hit home runs.
If you have over 2-3 swing trades on at once you are not a trader, you are a gambler, at least in this market.
Where is that guy that said "why not sell here and buy lower you moron, it's a bear market" when Bitcoin was around 3500. That was actually my sign to bring in some fresh money and you were the reason I added at 3600! So thanks to the un-named troll(s).
Note
I am amazed the rise in short interest into a bullish swing like this. Not that I am buying here, but gosh how silly is it to short here? This could propel us into the 6k area if they squeeze. 
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