Shakeout or Distribution ?
Updated
Minimal txt on this one.
Thought this move would extend down to 2.9-3.2k, but noticed volume/price rising as well as OBV in a Wyckoffian structure at 35xx Previously all Wyck structures had OBV falling and subsequently broke down.
The important thing to here is to look at possibilities, and at present, the larger picture shows that this is more and more likely looking to be a terminal shakeout (spring is the often incorrectly applied term. Something I am guilty of doing all the time.) The point being is that if this is a selling climax then we are entering accumulation below the 6k mark. However, if this is a Terminal Shakeout (a way of getting as much asset from us retailers through fear) then we will be finishing accumulation and entering a new market cycle.
The key characteristic of a Selling Climax (distribution) is the highest selling volume on in the bear cycle.
The key characteristic of a Terminal Shakeout is a sharp drop in price, followed by strong and continued buying volume BUT THE SELLING VOLUME HAS TO STAY BENEATH THE PREVIOUS SC
Here is a 1W chart to demonstrate.
This is by no means a certainty. I am just looking at the characteristics of the chart combined with fundamental analysis (Huge institutions and projects, other markets in termoil, the relationship with Gold and BTC...) It would make sense to start a new market cycle now, and it the ideals of these bigger players would be to take as much asset off retail in preparation for a price increase.
Thought this move would extend down to 2.9-3.2k, but noticed volume/price rising as well as OBV in a Wyckoffian structure at 35xx Previously all Wyck structures had OBV falling and subsequently broke down.
The important thing to here is to look at possibilities, and at present, the larger picture shows that this is more and more likely looking to be a terminal shakeout (spring is the often incorrectly applied term. Something I am guilty of doing all the time.) The point being is that if this is a selling climax then we are entering accumulation below the 6k mark. However, if this is a Terminal Shakeout (a way of getting as much asset from us retailers through fear) then we will be finishing accumulation and entering a new market cycle.
The key characteristic of a Selling Climax (distribution) is the highest selling volume on in the bear cycle.
The key characteristic of a Terminal Shakeout is a sharp drop in price, followed by strong and continued buying volume BUT THE SELLING VOLUME HAS TO STAY BENEATH THE PREVIOUS SC
Here is a 1W chart to demonstrate.
This is by no means a certainty. I am just looking at the characteristics of the chart combined with fundamental analysis (Huge institutions and projects, other markets in termoil, the relationship with Gold and BTC...) It would make sense to start a new market cycle now, and it the ideals of these bigger players would be to take as much asset off retail in preparation for a price increase.
Note
I would like to say that this is NOT a confirmation. 3K can still be on the cards and we need to stay above 4122 to confirm the double bottom setup. Unless we get a short squeeze, I expect price to consolidate or pullback at a point around the 47xx area. However, I have no idea how the market will react at resistance. There has been a nice amount of money made from those who went long with force below the recent pumps and these people may be happy to release a lot of that newly earned supply back into the market. The important thing is to make a case for both sides, but try not to let the recent insanity cloud your judgement. PRICE/VOLUME - WATCH IT.Note
Have some cloud to monitor resistance 1H - Have not been this clear of the 1H cloud since last years bull cycle.
4H - The meat of BTC's work
https://hhttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mAVTxriK/ttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZFMa9dc2/
1D - Dreams of thinning cloud to fly through (if we get there) Just meeting the Tenken Resistance (important)
Note
4H again
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