Long

Bitcoin and the perfect storm ..

By CheQuera

Updated

Some general observation about the bitcoin setup here and now.

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adding some time perspective comparing with the bullrun into hard fork of BCH 2016 to 2018

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Chart about the value of oil as an indicator for the actual energy value and pricing right now:

Chart about gold as an indicator of the actual market sentiment about the need of storage of value. Right now gold is in a blue sky break out of all time high (!):

Gold vs BTC relation:

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Zoom into inicial chart displaying from the last halfing in 27/04/2020 into 2025.

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A zoom in on the two bull runs of 2013 to 250 usd and 1k usd,

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Monday 08/04/2024 "premarket"

daily

1 hours

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Having a look at the weekly evolution of btc on the daily scale since the ETF approval by the US SEC. As btc is a 24/7 market, the price evolution on the weekends might create some insight or have certain relationship for the price evolution of the upcoming week.

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forming a daily/weekly bull flag?

Monthly view

Weekly View

Daily View

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Bitcoins astonished 2024 50-70k eight month bull flag channel handle candelaBro

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Question mark of the day:

Will the US election FUD create a week of bull FOMO break out?

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Some fryday SELL! out views

End of the week double drop:

Not all ends are weak:

Always be aware of the sunny day weekend sillicon valley tea party buy:

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5 minute scale weekly closing DROP timing

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US election ante portas

Trade active

US election night ATH and captain it's wednesday premarket view.

Trade closed: target reached

Daily view of the latest ATH blue sky break out in 2020/21 of 20k+

This breakout includes more or less the same setup as right now with respect to time since the last halfing and a change of POTUS, as in both cases it's a 4 year cycle. The difference this time is the approval by the actual administration of ETF's at the beginning of the year and there for the first official regulation of bitcoin by the US as well as an official support by the incoming president to retain confiscated btc as a means of building up a national reserve of btc.

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A month of trend change in the rear view mirror.

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A closer look into the week before the election.

Election week itself.

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Leveraged trading in a bullish market.

A comparison of two markets, Coinbase and Binance and the effect of a drop in price, in this case on Sunday after the POTUS election 2024 week:

Coinbase

Binance

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Timing of a stormy Monday blue sky break out.

More perhaps leveraged fall out or thick thumb events in the market, this time seen on the Asian Huobi/HTX trading platform on the 1minute scale.

Normal price candles on Coinbase:

Excessive wigs on HTX:

A Monday lunch ascending triangle stepping stone for human decimal brains at the 85k sound barrier in full display:

Chart of the weekend and the Monday frenzy:

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Question of the day:

Will we see the battle for 90k?

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A closer look into the wigs created most likely by leveraged trades in the extreme environment of this bull market FOMO at the edge of 90k.

The "normal" daily low of 85.3k just before 6 o'clock in the morning as displayed on the 1minute scale of the INDEX chart.
[Time NY UTC -5]

The same move on the 1, 5 and 15 minute chart of binance reaching a low of 80.4k. The volume increase and the response of stronger green candles commonly indicate that the bottom of the market is in:

The 1 minute chart of bitstamp shows excessive wigs in both directions indicating probably a low volume of trading book depth creating large price movements by the traders.

The chart of Huobi (HTX) shows large wigs to the downside with a strange delay to the actual market movements with a low of 80.3k. The drop at nearly 6 o'clock followed by 5 and 15 minute green candles apparently incited already leveraged positions to add more leverage. A smaller retracement an hour later created the first wig of 5.8% at 06:58. The ongoing bearish evolution of the market price created a second wig of 6.5% resulting in the market low of the day of 80.3k. A last wig of 2.02% appeared a minute after market open on the first small drop of the market before initializing it's rally to test 90k again. These drops most likely created a domino effect of cascading stop loss positions set by triggered stop loss sales at market price to prevent the final liquidation of the respective margin accounts.

5 minute scale:

1 hour scale:

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How to buy large amounts of bitcoin in a bullish FOMO market.

Observing the volume candles it looks like the daily ETF buys are testing different strategies to acquire their required bitcoin volumes. As of now apparently three distinct behaviors have been tested.

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ETF's selling the news into bloody candles of a bullish market sentiment.

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After a Friday closing bell bullish sentiment into the very last candle, the latest two week chart looks like a make it or break it setup for bitcoin that could very well go ballistic if the volume after the closing bell on the streets of NY holds on as of now.

Friday trading chart in 1 minute candles.

2 weeks of excessive bitcoin buying spree creating maybe the biggest bullish flag ever seen.

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Sometimes it seems that it's all about the perspective.

A look at the weekly view on a clean sheet about the evolution of value over the last 4 to 5 years.

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Tuesday

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RSI level on the weekly reaching shallow waters.

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Taking notes in the blue sky.
Aiming for the first time at the 100k sound barrier:

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If FOMO had a name, it would be:
"You just got f*** by FUD."

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Bitcoin breaks 100k USD for the first time on Wednesday 4th of December 2024 after stock market close in NY. After establishing 104k ATH a crash around 13% occurred taking out probabbly most of over leveraged trades.

The candle constellation on the 1hs chart looks quite similar to the candle constellation after breaking 90k topping out in 93k with a ~5.3% correction.

In May of 2024 a 13% correction occurred around 69k before reaching the 73k ATH of the bull run following ETF's creation in the US stock market.

Todays 104k ATH on the 1hs chart:

93k ATH on the 15 min chart:

13% drop from 70k to 60k in May this year:

CheQuera

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