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Purpose: Blendr is introducing a new decentralized network that utilizes unused GPU resources all over the world, in order to give access to high-performance computing. Blendr uses blockchain technology to create a marketplace for GPU power, making computing more efficient and cheaper. This new approach makes the process scalable and cost-effective.
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In This Issue:
F-O-M-C
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
FTX Is Still A Mess
Crypto And AI Will Be Epic
Elizabeth Warren Begs For Rate Cuts
This Chinese Bank Is Praising Bitcoin And Ethereum
Bitcoin Sinks | Here Is What Happened And What To Do Now (Buy The Dip)
F-O-M-C
Eight times a year, a group of influential policymakers convenes to set economic policies that profoundly impact the value of everything we own, consume, and experience. Their decisions shape the financial landscape and reverberate through our daily lives.
The seven governors, who serve 14-year terms, wield significant power. They are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The only officials who typically outlast them in their positions are Supreme Court Justices, who serve for a lifetime, subject to good behavior.
The decisions of these individuals not only deeply affect Americans but also have global implications, as the United States continues to exert dominance in banking, capital markets, and fiat currency worldwide.
Today, these individuals will meet for the fourth time this year to deliberate on policy, form opinions on the market and economy, and ultimately decide on the necessity of rate cuts. While I've always maintained that the market and Bitcoin will act independently, significant shifts in tone or posture are bound to have lasting and far-reaching effects.
Interestingly, these meetings have had a notable impact on a particular asset class that operates outside traditional markets: cryptocurrency. Both risk-on and risk-off assets tend to experience heightened volatility in the days surrounding these meetings, with Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market often standing out as the most reactive.
A trend has emerged, which I believe has not garnered sufficient recognition.
I conducted a retrospective analysis of Bitcoin's response to these meetings, beginning with the most recent and going back to the middle of last year. While volatility isn't perfectly aligned from meeting to meeting, the patterns are remarkably consistent. It's almost as if one could predict the timing of FOMC meetings just by looking at the chart. See below for the results.
I didn’t adhere to strict guidelines when collecting this data; at most, I looked just a couple of days before or after the meeting. Barely a stretch.
2024 FOMC Meetings:
June 11-12: $70,000 to $66,500 then… TBD
April/May 30-1: $64,500 to $57,000 then springs back in a few days
March 19-20: $67,500 to $61,500 then springs back same day
Jan 30-31: $43,500 to $42,000 then springs back in one day
2023 FOMC Meetings:
Dec 12-13: $43,800 to $40,700 then springs back same day
Oct/Nov 31-1: $34,500 to $35,600 then falls back in a couple of days
Sep 19-20: Insignificant volatility
July 25-27: Insignificant volatility
June 13-14: Insignificant volatility
What you will notice is that the FOMC tends to have a more pronounced impact when the market is already in a reactive state. For example, from June 2022 to September 2023, Bitcoin price action was relatively stable. However, in October 2023, Bitcoin began to rise, and subsequently, FOMC meetings became highly volatile profit-taking/deleveraging opportunities for the market.
Based on this data, my prediction is that Bitcoin will experience a sharp upward move in the next few days, rebounding most, if not all, of the drop. I’m not taking a trade based on this hunch, and neither should you. My thoughts should never dictate your strategy, but that’s my guess. Any deviation from this trend would mark a departure from the four/five consecutive, nearly identical data points we've observed leading up to this point.
Moreover, an unaccounted-for hiccup, nose scratch, or twitch of the right arm from Jerome Powell could send the market into a frenzy. I don’t make the rules; they do.
The trend remains upward; do not risk your Bitcoin with leverage unless you are extremely confident, well-capitalized, and comfortable with the possibility of 100% losses.
Godspeed. Valhalla awaits.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
I am beginning to annoy myself. The compulsion to share a bitcoin chart in every newsletter, every day is problematic, when we all know that nothing has changed.
Months of sideways were expected, and that is what we are getting.
And at the moment, a highly predictable bounce (hopefully it lasts) at support in the middle of the range.
Yawn.
The Wolf Den Is Sponsored By BLENDR!
Why $BLENDR? The world of GPU computing is changing fast, and there's a huge need for affordable and powerful computing power, especially in fields like artificial intelligence and content rendering.
Purpose: Blendr is introducing a new decentralized network that utilizes unused GPU resources all over the world, in order to give access to high-performance computing. Blendr uses blockchain technology to create a marketplace for GPU power, making computing more efficient and cheaper. This new approach makes the process scalable and cost-effective.
This newsletter is made possible thanks to BLENDR. Show them some love!
In This Issue:
F-O-M-C
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
Altcoin Charts
Legacy Markets
FTX Is Still A Mess
Crypto And AI Will Be Epic
Elizabeth Warren Begs For Rate Cuts
This Chinese Bank Is Praising Bitcoin And Ethereum
Bitcoin Sinks | Here Is What Happened And What To Do Now (Buy The Dip)
F-O-M-C
Eight times a year, a group of influential policymakers convenes to set economic policies that profoundly impact the value of everything we own, consume, and experience. Their decisions shape the financial landscape and reverberate through our daily lives.
The seven governors, who serve 14-year terms, wield significant power. They are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The only officials who typically outlast them in their positions are Supreme Court Justices, who serve for a lifetime, subject to good behavior.
The decisions of these individuals not only deeply affect Americans but also have global implications, as the United States continues to exert dominance in banking, capital markets, and fiat currency worldwide.
Today, these individuals will meet for the fourth time this year to deliberate on policy, form opinions on the market and economy, and ultimately decide on the necessity of rate cuts. While I've always maintained that the market and Bitcoin will act independently, significant shifts in tone or posture are bound to have lasting and far-reaching effects.
Interestingly, these meetings have had a notable impact on a particular asset class that operates outside traditional markets: cryptocurrency. Both risk-on and risk-off assets tend to experience heightened volatility in the days surrounding these meetings, with Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market often standing out as the most reactive.
A trend has emerged, which I believe has not garnered sufficient recognition.
I conducted a retrospective analysis of Bitcoin's response to these meetings, beginning with the most recent and going back to the middle of last year. While volatility isn't perfectly aligned from meeting to meeting, the patterns are remarkably consistent. It's almost as if one could predict the timing of FOMC meetings just by looking at the chart. See below for the results.
I didn’t adhere to strict guidelines when collecting this data; at most, I looked just a couple of days before or after the meeting. Barely a stretch.
2024 FOMC Meetings:
June 11-12: $70,000 to $66,500 then… TBD
April/May 30-1: $64,500 to $57,000 then springs back in a few days
March 19-20: $67,500 to $61,500 then springs back same day
Jan 30-31: $43,500 to $42,000 then springs back in one day
2023 FOMC Meetings:
Dec 12-13: $43,800 to $40,700 then springs back same day
Oct/Nov 31-1: $34,500 to $35,600 then falls back in a couple of days
Sep 19-20: Insignificant volatility
July 25-27: Insignificant volatility
June 13-14: Insignificant volatility
What you will notice is that the FOMC tends to have a more pronounced impact when the market is already in a reactive state. For example, from June 2022 to September 2023, Bitcoin price action was relatively stable. However, in October 2023, Bitcoin began to rise, and subsequently, FOMC meetings became highly volatile profit-taking/deleveraging opportunities for the market.
Based on this data, my prediction is that Bitcoin will experience a sharp upward move in the next few days, rebounding most, if not all, of the drop. I’m not taking a trade based on this hunch, and neither should you. My thoughts should never dictate your strategy, but that’s my guess. Any deviation from this trend would mark a departure from the four/five consecutive, nearly identical data points we've observed leading up to this point.
Moreover, an unaccounted-for hiccup, nose scratch, or twitch of the right arm from Jerome Powell could send the market into a frenzy. I don’t make the rules; they do.
The trend remains upward; do not risk your Bitcoin with leverage unless you are extremely confident, well-capitalized, and comfortable with the possibility of 100% losses.
Godspeed. Valhalla awaits.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
I am beginning to annoy myself. The compulsion to share a bitcoin chart in every newsletter, every day is problematic, when we all know that nothing has changed.
Months of sideways were expected, and that is what we are getting.
And at the moment, a highly predictable bounce (hopefully it lasts) at support in the middle of the range.
Yawn.
scott.melker@texaswestcapital.com
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
scott.melker@texaswestcapital.com
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.