BTCUSD-W1-WATCH THE CLOUDS !!!
WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action triggered a long black candle which went down towards an intra-week low @ 40'517, testing the top of the weekly
clouds area.
This week ongoing price action will be very interesting as there is a strong support zone between 40'860 and 37'360 !
Global picture is showing a major double top formation in progress, coupled with a bearish divergence, in an ongoing bearish mode price action.
Indeed, the BTCUSD, in this weekly time frame is below all important indicators (TS, MBB and KS) !
In order to neutralise the downside risk the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold above the Kijun-Sen, currently @ 49'148, on a weekly closing basis.
On the downside, a failure to hold (on a weekly closing basis) above the clouds support zone would open the door for a retest of former low @ 28'600 reached
on June 2021 and which is also, roughly the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (28'737) of the big rally which started @ 3'850 towards the ATH @ 69'000.
DAILY (D1)
Downtrend remains intact, below :
1) the clouds
2) the ongoing downtrend line
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) the Kijun-Sen (KS)
5) the Tenkan-Sen (TS)
After the recent decline seen ove the last couple of days a Doji pattern, took place on Jan 8th, which triggered, so far, only a small recovery which should not be seen as a strategic trend reversal yet as it has not been confirmed by a RSI bullish divergence !!
Indeed, such kind of price action is corrective only in a still ongoing bearish trend price action!
Only a sustainable recovery above 44253 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk !
4 HOURS (H4) - AT AN IMPORTANT PIVOT LEVEL AREA (41'760-42'150)
In this 4 hours time frame, a RSI bullish divergence, triggered the recent rally from the low of 40'517 to an intraday high reached yesterday evening @ 42'796; such reversal price action has been short lived as a failure to cross over the Kijun-Sen, pushed down again the BTCUSD which
is now again facing this important resistance (KS), currently @ 42'150.
A 4 hours closing above 42'150 would be the first warning signal for a potential upside move towards the 4 hours downtrend line resistance, currently around the 44'000 area; nevertheless, on the other hand, on the downside, there is also an important support area around 41'850 and 41'760
and a failure to hold above 41'760 on a 4 hours closing basis would be the other warning, calling for further downside towards 41'200 ahead of the former lows around 40'500
CONCLUSION :
On short term, watch the following levels, on a 4 hours closing basis :
Above 42'150 (short term bullish)
Between 42'150-41'760 (short term neutral)
Below 41'760 (short term bearish)
Have a nice week.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Last week price action triggered a long black candle which went down towards an intra-week low @ 40'517, testing the top of the weekly
clouds area.
This week ongoing price action will be very interesting as there is a strong support zone between 40'860 and 37'360 !
Global picture is showing a major double top formation in progress, coupled with a bearish divergence, in an ongoing bearish mode price action.
Indeed, the BTCUSD, in this weekly time frame is below all important indicators (TS, MBB and KS) !
In order to neutralise the downside risk the BTCUSD should at least recover and hold above the Kijun-Sen, currently @ 49'148, on a weekly closing basis.
On the downside, a failure to hold (on a weekly closing basis) above the clouds support zone would open the door for a retest of former low @ 28'600 reached
on June 2021 and which is also, roughly the level of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (28'737) of the big rally which started @ 3'850 towards the ATH @ 69'000.
DAILY (D1)
Downtrend remains intact, below :
1) the clouds
2) the ongoing downtrend line
3) the Mid Bollinger Band
4) the Kijun-Sen (KS)
5) the Tenkan-Sen (TS)
After the recent decline seen ove the last couple of days a Doji pattern, took place on Jan 8th, which triggered, so far, only a small recovery which should not be seen as a strategic trend reversal yet as it has not been confirmed by a RSI bullish divergence !!
Indeed, such kind of price action is corrective only in a still ongoing bearish trend price action!
Only a sustainable recovery above 44253 would neutralise this ongoing downside risk !
4 HOURS (H4) - AT AN IMPORTANT PIVOT LEVEL AREA (41'760-42'150)
In this 4 hours time frame, a RSI bullish divergence, triggered the recent rally from the low of 40'517 to an intraday high reached yesterday evening @ 42'796; such reversal price action has been short lived as a failure to cross over the Kijun-Sen, pushed down again the BTCUSD which
is now again facing this important resistance (KS), currently @ 42'150.
A 4 hours closing above 42'150 would be the first warning signal for a potential upside move towards the 4 hours downtrend line resistance, currently around the 44'000 area; nevertheless, on the other hand, on the downside, there is also an important support area around 41'850 and 41'760
and a failure to hold above 41'760 on a 4 hours closing basis would be the other warning, calling for further downside towards 41'200 ahead of the former lows around 40'500
CONCLUSION :
On short term, watch the following levels, on a 4 hours closing basis :
Above 42'150 (short term bullish)
Between 42'150-41'760 (short term neutral)
Below 41'760 (short term bearish)
Have a nice week.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.