BTCUSD macro trends since 2011
Updated
Since 2011, these trends have persisted for BTCUSD
• 4 distinct phases within each bullrun; namely, Phase 1, Consolidation Phase, Phase 2, and Crypto Winter.
• Phase 1 starts from halving and ends at the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter. There is little hype in mainstream media. The best time to DCA out BTC.
• Consolidation Phase starts at the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter and ends when BTCUSD bounces off the 20WSMA *and* rises above the 4.236 Fib of Crypto Winter. Consolidation Phase sees the 1st BTCUSD peak which hits above 3.618 of Crypto Winter *and* is heralded by the monthly RSI hitting the blue RSI trendline. The Consolidation Phase bottoms around the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter. There is great hype and then fear in mainstream media. The best time to trade alts.
• Phase 2 starts when BTCUSD rises above the 4.236 Fib of Crypto Winter and ends at the 2nd BTCUSD peak. The 2nd BTCUSD peak occurs around the 5.764 Fib of the Consolidation Phase, *and* is heralded by the monthly RSI hitting the red RSI trendline. The best time for ETH.
• Crypto Winter starts at the 2nd BTCUSD peak and ends at the next halving event. Crypto Winter bottoms between 0.382 and 0.618 Fib of Consolidation Phase. There is little hype in mainstream media, and developers can work in peace without interference from marketing. The best time to DCA in BTC.
Judging from the above,
• BTCUSD is still within Consolidation Phase, and will be ranging till we till 4.236 Fib at around 73.8K.
• BTCUSD will peak in-between 181.9K to 237.1K.
• The wind blows, and petals fall. BTCUSD may rise, or it may fall. It is much more important to know your personal risk-reward appetite, and then work out your macro strategy.
• 4 distinct phases within each bullrun; namely, Phase 1, Consolidation Phase, Phase 2, and Crypto Winter.
• Phase 1 starts from halving and ends at the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter. There is little hype in mainstream media. The best time to DCA out BTC.
• Consolidation Phase starts at the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter and ends when BTCUSD bounces off the 20WSMA *and* rises above the 4.236 Fib of Crypto Winter. Consolidation Phase sees the 1st BTCUSD peak which hits above 3.618 of Crypto Winter *and* is heralded by the monthly RSI hitting the blue RSI trendline. The Consolidation Phase bottoms around the 1.618 Fib of Crypto Winter. There is great hype and then fear in mainstream media. The best time to trade alts.
• Phase 2 starts when BTCUSD rises above the 4.236 Fib of Crypto Winter and ends at the 2nd BTCUSD peak. The 2nd BTCUSD peak occurs around the 5.764 Fib of the Consolidation Phase, *and* is heralded by the monthly RSI hitting the red RSI trendline. The best time for ETH.
• Crypto Winter starts at the 2nd BTCUSD peak and ends at the next halving event. Crypto Winter bottoms between 0.382 and 0.618 Fib of Consolidation Phase. There is little hype in mainstream media, and developers can work in peace without interference from marketing. The best time to DCA in BTC.
Judging from the above,
• BTCUSD is still within Consolidation Phase, and will be ranging till we till 4.236 Fib at around 73.8K.
• BTCUSD will peak in-between 181.9K to 237.1K.
• The wind blows, and petals fall. BTCUSD may rise, or it may fall. It is much more important to know your personal risk-reward appetite, and then work out your macro strategy.
Note
• There are 3 indicators that are of note at the macro level. They are the 8W SMA, the 21W EMA and the 20W SMA.• Because of how EMAs are calculated so that more recent data points are given more weight, momentum turns bullish when the 21W EMA crosses above the 20W SMA.
• Momentum becomes very bullish when the 8W SMA crosses above the 21W EMA (which is itself above the 20W SMA).
• 8, 21, 34 are Fib numbers. Coincidence? Probably. However, they work.
• Anyway, BTCUSD seems interested in testing the 8W SMA. Despite how red the candles currently are, this is not a bad thing. Test it to confirm bullish momentum. We pass, and BTC, ETH and alts will fly and BTC.D will drop.
• If we fail, there is still the 21W EMA and 20W SMA. We may fail the 21W EMA, but I think the 20W SMA will hold. If not, then the bullrun will be extended. This is not a bad thing for BTC and ETH, but alts will suffer and BTC.D will pump.
• Anyway, the recent bearishness is due to DXY trending upwards. Nothing much has happened or changed. DXY has just been rejected off the $95.623 resistance level though. So things may turn bullish for the crypto space quite soon.
• Nothing to worry about. It's just background statistical fluctuations.
• Oh yes, if BTCUSD turns bullish, either by passing the 8W SMA test or because of DXY trending downwards, then many alts will be forming double bottoms :)
• Of course, if BTCUSD fails all tests, then since we are still in the Consolidation Phase, there is no harm buying more alts with BTC *at opportune moments*.
Note
Closeup of the DXY chart:Note
The current correction is not over yet.
Note
• *Assuming* BTCUSD does not close his weekly candle below 59.5K, it seems that the current statistical fluctuation is just a test of the 8W SMA.• Yeah, it might be argued that the current correction is expected as the weekly RSI was at 70%, but who really cares about such micro dips? Especially since DXY is poised to dump.
• Anyway, I would just like to point out the similarities between current RSI levels and RSI levels back in end'2020.
Note
• The recent correction is only a 17% dip from the ATH, which is nothing compared to what we saw in 2013 and 2017, and par for the course for any bullrun (and which is also why I never leverage trade).• The previous 2 times BTCUSD closed below the 8W SMA, the 20W SMA was tested.
• However, there is a chance that BTCUSD will bounce off the 57.2K Fib level.
• It's hard to weigh and compare the above 2 probabilities. So let's see which outcome materialises. Testing of the 20W SMA or bouncing off the 57.2K Fib level?
Note
Ignore the pi-cycle top projection above of 12.5m. That is the top assuming BTC grows at the current snail pace (the BTC peak grows with time). As BTCUSD goes pass 75K, the bands will start closing in and the estimated pi-cycle top will be adjusted downwards (dramatically).Note
BTCUSD has still not bounced above the 8W SMA of $59,215. I hope the King does not do anything funny this weekend.Note
Yes, it indeed appears that the King is shaking things up again. Well, we'll just need to redo our forecasts again after things reset.Note
Probably a retest of the 20W SMA. Previous failures of the 8W SMA had led to tests of the 20W SMA. Let's see if this is the case this time too.Note
• November was educational. The main takeaway for me was the falsification of the hypothesis that a failure of the 8W SMA leads eventually to a retest of the 20W SMA. • BTCUSD still looks relatively bullish. So unless there is a sudden dump before re-establishing the 8W SMA as support (currently at 60.8K), it seems that the failure of the 8W SMA in the week of 15 Nov'21 led only to a retest of the 21W EMA.
• This bears further investigation.
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