BitcoinLong
Investing Thesis for the Current Bitcoin Cycle (2023-2025 map)
As we approach the final stages of the current Bitcoin cycle, my investment strategy is guided by a combination of tools designed to identify optimal entry and exit points. Beginning in January 2023, at the end of the bear market, I utilized a cycle tool derived from Fibonacci time to determine key periods for accumulation and eventual market exit. This tool has proven reliable in past cycles, and I believe it will be instrumental in timing this cycle as well.
To complement the time-based cycle tool, I am using a logarithmic regression channel to estimate a reasonable top for this market cycle, targeting a price range between $170,000 and $250,000. While I hope the market exceeds these expectations, my plan is to begin exiting before December 8, 2025, which aligns with my projected top timeframe.
It's important to note that market tops and bottoms rarely occur on a single day; they tend to unfold over several weeks or even months. For this reason, I am also monitoring the risk metric, Puell Multiple, and Accumulation/Distribution indicators, which were crucial in anticipating the market bottom.
While no one can buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top with perfect accuracy, these tools help maximize entry and exit strategies. I encourage continued accumulation over the next few months, and I look forward to achieving financial independence together. Let's stay disciplined and focused as we navigate this cycle.
#FIRE
To complement the time-based cycle tool, I am using a logarithmic regression channel to estimate a reasonable top for this market cycle, targeting a price range between $170,000 and $250,000. While I hope the market exceeds these expectations, my plan is to begin exiting before December 8, 2025, which aligns with my projected top timeframe.
It's important to note that market tops and bottoms rarely occur on a single day; they tend to unfold over several weeks or even months. For this reason, I am also monitoring the risk metric, Puell Multiple, and Accumulation/Distribution indicators, which were crucial in anticipating the market bottom.
While no one can buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top with perfect accuracy, these tools help maximize entry and exit strategies. I encourage continued accumulation over the next few months, and I look forward to achieving financial independence together. Let's stay disciplined and focused as we navigate this cycle.
#FIRE
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