We've held inside the range of the dramatic 1 hour candle for a while now.
Earlier I was quite concerned as a short about a butterfly forming, spiking out my stops above the high and then reversing but as time has passed I think that less likely. The clean W structure is broken by the long flat range.
At this point I feel the best plan is to assume we're in a flat bull trap which can be a strong break. Makes it worth holding shorts while in this range. However, if we break above it's best to exit shorts. Even if wanting to remain bearish it'd be likely the smarter option would be get out and wait to fade a retest of the high.
We'd be looking at our first target area somewhere around 56K and be more interested in looking for buy signals with tight stops around the 53K area.
If the first swing hits, I'd consider this might be a really important break but even if it is, I think it's very likely we have some sort of bull trap before further downside.
The first drop can also be made in a bull move. One of the reasons I like to plan the buy levels off a drop here is so I can get long and then short against my position. Trail my buy stops to be taken out in a reversal but hopefully if my short stops are going to hit it just runs through and I stay in the buy.
If this first drop swing hits and we fail to make a new high I think there's a really good case to be made for this being a failure of the uptrend.
Related post :
Earlier I was quite concerned as a short about a butterfly forming, spiking out my stops above the high and then reversing but as time has passed I think that less likely. The clean W structure is broken by the long flat range.
At this point I feel the best plan is to assume we're in a flat bull trap which can be a strong break. Makes it worth holding shorts while in this range. However, if we break above it's best to exit shorts. Even if wanting to remain bearish it'd be likely the smarter option would be get out and wait to fade a retest of the high.
We'd be looking at our first target area somewhere around 56K and be more interested in looking for buy signals with tight stops around the 53K area.
If the first swing hits, I'd consider this might be a really important break but even if it is, I think it's very likely we have some sort of bull trap before further downside.
The first drop can also be made in a bull move. One of the reasons I like to plan the buy levels off a drop here is so I can get long and then short against my position. Trail my buy stops to be taken out in a reversal but hopefully if my short stops are going to hit it just runs through and I stay in the buy.
If this first drop swing hits and we fail to make a new high I think there's a really good case to be made for this being a failure of the uptrend.
Related post :
Note
Adding some shorts now at 62,600. Really close to where I'd have to stop out. Like the RR in these spots. In my experience, it's almost never worth shorting BTC on a Saturday. With very very exceptions, you'd usually get a better price later.
I've even tried a bot that buy BTC on Sat and sells it before Sun but I discontinued it because even though it was making some money I thought it risked more than it stood to make.
But I stick with the rule. I don't like to short BTC on Sat.
Note
This is the critical moment I think.I think the break of this recent 15 min candle might decide direction.
New low = very good for the bear case.
New high = Bear exit.
That's likely either the big important traders coming in for the reversal or the bear bids got used up and it's not wise to continue to fade.
Note
Strong sellers on the 76 retracement. Textbook for a bull trap but for the bull trap to be valid we can't break the high now. Above the high, def out short.
Very patient with them while we trend down. This might be early in the initial break.
Note
Chop chop but no breach of the important levels so far. Bull trap setup still valid for now. Selling would be expected to accelerate under 62,400 - 62,000.
Note
If price drops sharply from here a little lower we have a big decision level where a bullish butterfly would form. If this holds, will likely see a strong move up. However, failure of the bullish butterfly usually leads to a capitulation pattern. Failures of butterflies are frequently found in the first leg of reversals (Be it bull or bear).
Under the butterfly level the trade is usually easy for a while. Just be careful with it starts to feel too easy.
Note
If break one works it'll set up a second pending version of this. This one would be much more significant. We'll speak more about it if we get through the first possible bull patterns. Note
When you see these candles something big is usually coming. Fast trading on both sides to create wicks. Kicks out a lot of stops and brings in a lot of people in the wrong direction and then sets up a big move. Obviously, as you can see, it can range for a long time.
But usually these are a prelude to something interesting coming. Can be either direction. I like to short them on resistances.
Note
Stops hit. Last try a little higher.
Was maybe wrong about the no butterfly thing.
Full short exit if butterfly breaks. Even if the short is right it'd be too hard to quantity where it can wick to. Better to just get out and try later.
Note
Resis broke and big pop. Got out early because as I mentioned in last post it's unquantifiable how high spikes can go even if you're right. Best to just get out. See what happens and you can try again later if you still want to. Last try on possible double top pattern.
Note
If this is going to work we need to see big obvious sellers coming in now. The first break would be and we'd be in a left shoulder.Strong yank on the break required for bear pattern. Would be a real rug after this much upside momentum.
Note
ETH also trading at major resis. 
Note
Stops to even now. We're at supports. Holding to see if wee break but if the bear move fails it'd probably be here.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.