BitcoinShort
Is Btc now in a downtrend?
Updated
This is my first time publishing a analysis on Btc. I am short and think thre is a good chance the trend has possibly reversed.
Since reaching the 14k top this is our second time hitting a lower high in the downward channel it’s been in. Roughly 14k, 13k and now.12k. Almost like a pattern is forming. I don’t think we break upward out of this channel.
It’s been months now since we tested to 200ma. I’m using the exponential average. I think eventually it’s going to test it. My guess is it’s meets Btc somewhere in the 8.5 to 8k range. Seeing we been forming lower highs I do think there’s a chance we break the last low of 9.1k. If we do test the 200ma I think it’s highly probable to get another strong bounce from there. Maybe too somewhere in the 10.5 - 11k range.
I’m also using TD. You rarely see a green 9 followed by a red 1 on the btc daily chart so I think this could be a good indicator that the top is in for now and we won’t break out of this channel in a upward direction.
It seems many are bullish currently so a contrarian view here is worth at least being explored imo. Everyone has been talking about halving and how it’s going to push the price up or possibly already starting to. We seen what I did with Ltc and I actually don’t view 2020 halving as special. I do think the 2024 one will be. There’s been lots of talk of btc is now a safe haven asset. I don’t think it’s proven it’s self yet to be that. I have other reasons as well but no need to post them all. I really feel people are just excited because we were in a year long downtrend. Google trends for btc is also down over 50% since June. Not saying new money isn’t coming in but people are not really searching for it.
I am long term bullish. Been since I bought my first coin in 2014 but I am short term bearish. I don’t think we break new highs this rally. I think there’s a good chance 14k was the top for this one. At least for now. I’m waiting to see what happens after we test the 200ma. If it holds I’d be a buyer.
Thanks for taking the time to read whether you agree or disagree.
Since reaching the 14k top this is our second time hitting a lower high in the downward channel it’s been in. Roughly 14k, 13k and now.12k. Almost like a pattern is forming. I don’t think we break upward out of this channel.
It’s been months now since we tested to 200ma. I’m using the exponential average. I think eventually it’s going to test it. My guess is it’s meets Btc somewhere in the 8.5 to 8k range. Seeing we been forming lower highs I do think there’s a chance we break the last low of 9.1k. If we do test the 200ma I think it’s highly probable to get another strong bounce from there. Maybe too somewhere in the 10.5 - 11k range.
I’m also using TD. You rarely see a green 9 followed by a red 1 on the btc daily chart so I think this could be a good indicator that the top is in for now and we won’t break out of this channel in a upward direction.
It seems many are bullish currently so a contrarian view here is worth at least being explored imo. Everyone has been talking about halving and how it’s going to push the price up or possibly already starting to. We seen what I did with Ltc and I actually don’t view 2020 halving as special. I do think the 2024 one will be. There’s been lots of talk of btc is now a safe haven asset. I don’t think it’s proven it’s self yet to be that. I have other reasons as well but no need to post them all. I really feel people are just excited because we were in a year long downtrend. Google trends for btc is also down over 50% since June. Not saying new money isn’t coming in but people are not really searching for it.
I am long term bullish. Been since I bought my first coin in 2014 but I am short term bearish. I don’t think we break new highs this rally. I think there’s a good chance 14k was the top for this one. At least for now. I’m waiting to see what happens after we test the 200ma. If it holds I’d be a buyer.
Thanks for taking the time to read whether you agree or disagree.
Note
Sorry if there’s any typos. I’m traveling right now and did this on my phone real quick
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.