Barr and Falling wedge Complete: BTC Lacking Major Structure
Updated
On May 4th I made my BARR and Falling wedge post. The context was just a few weeks prior the BARR reversal formation had taken over BTC twitter, tradingview posts, youtube videos, etc, and then people stopped talking about it. Everyone was digging back into the 4h or daily charts and missing the larger context. My post was to remind people to continue to see the big picture.
It is the end of this week, and the month, which is when I do most of my posting, and the macro structure we have been developing since the blow off peak in December of 2017 is complete. The Falling Wedge began with a consolidation triangle, ended with the set up for the Bump and Run Reversal bottom and now the price action is not consolidating at the top of the wedge target after creating a blow off top with over-performance.
Crypto can and has before shrugged off 10-15% dips but this isn’t a dip, that is a rejection wick. This could take a month, or it could take 6 months to set a new high and retest $14,000 as support and then take off again. The longer it takes, the more we can bet on Alt season.
Lack of a major market structure doesn’t mean that it is impossible to trade. There are plenty of timeframes to trade and you don’t always need to see the formation developing over 18 months. But seeing how formations nest with one another, and understanding that triangles often form rising or falling wedges is important. Looking for BARR tops and bottoms and the targets after parabolic moves is important.
To me, this would be a great time to call for an alt-season. I have made plenty of fundamental posts about trusting the moving averages to get moving when the averages and price action have formed a bullish or bearish stack. My BTC post “People are telling you to short this” is a perfect example of a moving average post on a high timeframe calling for a massive move to the upside (see linked post).
The ETHUSD EMAs are about to resolve themselves bullishly on the weekly. I hope to turn my attention there and chase those gains while BTCUSD sorts itself out.
It is the end of this week, and the month, which is when I do most of my posting, and the macro structure we have been developing since the blow off peak in December of 2017 is complete. The Falling Wedge began with a consolidation triangle, ended with the set up for the Bump and Run Reversal bottom and now the price action is not consolidating at the top of the wedge target after creating a blow off top with over-performance.
Crypto can and has before shrugged off 10-15% dips but this isn’t a dip, that is a rejection wick. This could take a month, or it could take 6 months to set a new high and retest $14,000 as support and then take off again. The longer it takes, the more we can bet on Alt season.
Lack of a major market structure doesn’t mean that it is impossible to trade. There are plenty of timeframes to trade and you don’t always need to see the formation developing over 18 months. But seeing how formations nest with one another, and understanding that triangles often form rising or falling wedges is important. Looking for BARR tops and bottoms and the targets after parabolic moves is important.
To me, this would be a great time to call for an alt-season. I have made plenty of fundamental posts about trusting the moving averages to get moving when the averages and price action have formed a bullish or bearish stack. My BTC post “People are telling you to short this” is a perfect example of a moving average post on a high timeframe calling for a massive move to the upside (see linked post).
The ETHUSD EMAs are about to resolve themselves bullishly on the weekly. I hope to turn my attention there and chase those gains while BTCUSD sorts itself out.
Note
I found my larger macro structure
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