BTC Daily TA Neutral Bullish
BTCUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% BTC, 40% Cash.
*BULL TRAP WATCH. S&P October US Manufacturing PMI came in at a 28 month low of 49.9 compared to September's index of 52, and Composite came in at 47.3 compared to September's 49.5. The rate of decrease in this month's Composite PMI is the third fastest since 2009. The UK elects Rishi Sunak to be their next PM, the first Indian-Origin PM. Chinese financial markets are all reeling after the CCP officially reelected Xi Jinping as General Secretary for a third consecutive term. Cryptos are mixed but mainly flat and for the first time in a long time, the VIX, DXY, Equities and Equity Futures are up at the same time. The 30-year US Treasury bond is up while the 10-year is down. EURUSD is up while GBPUSD, JPYUSD and CNYUSD are all down. Oil and Silver are up while other Metals, Nat Gas and Agriculture are down. If this week is strong for earnings and economic data (New Home Sales, GDP and PCE) comes in higher than consensus, it's reasonable for a 100bps rate hike to still be on the table; but as of now, markets are still anticipating a 75bps hike on 11/02. Key Upcoming Dates: US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; Alphabet Q3 Earnings and Microsoft Q1 Earnings 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently attempting to breakout above the descending trendline from November 2021 which happens to coincide with $19417 resistance. Volume is currently Moderate (moderate) and on track to break a three day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red; Price continues to trade around the POC which implies consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at 20k, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 48 after forming a peak at 52.64, the next support is at 42.41 and resistance is at 57.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 68.25 as it still technically tests 55.55 resistance, the next resistance is at 78. MACD remains barely bullish for the ninth consecutive session and is currently slightly trending up at -88; the next resistance is the uptrend line from May 2021 at ~100 but it risks a bearish crossover if it dips below -121. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 11.5 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above $19417 resistance, the next likely target is a retest of $24181 resistance for the first time since July of this year. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely formally test the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~19k as support before potentially falling to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~15k as support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $18800.
*BULL TRAP WATCH. S&P October US Manufacturing PMI came in at a 28 month low of 49.9 compared to September's index of 52, and Composite came in at 47.3 compared to September's 49.5. The rate of decrease in this month's Composite PMI is the third fastest since 2009. The UK elects Rishi Sunak to be their next PM, the first Indian-Origin PM. Chinese financial markets are all reeling after the CCP officially reelected Xi Jinping as General Secretary for a third consecutive term. Cryptos are mixed but mainly flat and for the first time in a long time, the VIX, DXY, Equities and Equity Futures are up at the same time. The 30-year US Treasury bond is up while the 10-year is down. EURUSD is up while GBPUSD, JPYUSD and CNYUSD are all down. Oil and Silver are up while other Metals, Nat Gas and Agriculture are down. If this week is strong for earnings and economic data (New Home Sales, GDP and PCE) comes in higher than consensus, it's reasonable for a 100bps rate hike to still be on the table; but as of now, markets are still anticipating a 75bps hike on 11/02. Key Upcoming Dates: US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; Alphabet Q3 Earnings and Microsoft Q1 Earnings 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price is currently attempting to breakout above the descending trendline from November 2021 which happens to coincide with $19417 resistance. Volume is currently Moderate (moderate) and on track to break a three day streak of buyer dominance if it can close today's session in the red; Price continues to trade around the POC which implies consolidation. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at 20k, this margin is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 48 after forming a peak at 52.64, the next support is at 42.41 and resistance is at 57.34. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 68.25 as it still technically tests 55.55 resistance, the next resistance is at 78. MACD remains barely bullish for the ninth consecutive session and is currently slightly trending up at -88; the next resistance is the uptrend line from May 2021 at ~100 but it risks a bearish crossover if it dips below -121. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 11.5 as Price is attempting to push higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above $19417 resistance, the next likely target is a retest of $24181 resistance for the first time since July of this year. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely formally test the descending trendline from November 2021 at ~19k as support before potentially falling to retest the uptrend line from March 2020 at ~15k as support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $18800.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.