Bitcoin's Bull Run Is Closer Than You Think (Q4 Shock)
Good Morning CryptoFam and Investing enthusiasts,
As we find ourselves in another week of downward price action, I want to believe that this could be a massive fake-out as we patiently await the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts expected during the week of September 18th (source:(cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html).
Looking at Bitcoin's historical patterns, particularly market seasonality—defined as predictable trends in asset prices driven by recurring events such as holidays, earnings seasons, tax deadlines, or consumer behavior—we can expect a positive trend reversal starting in October. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q4 return of almost 89%. From today’s prices, this would put us on a trajectory towards the 100K mark by year-end (source: coinglass.com/today).
Additionally, when we examine the liquidation heat-maps, the liquidity below current prices has mostly been exhausted, meaning that downward pressure from market makers could begin to ease as fewer positions remain to be liquidated below this range. Now, the most tempting targets are the shorts—many of which began shorting around the 74K all-time high. It may be time for a short squeeze (source: Liquidation Heat-map (coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap).
Now for the exciting part: We've been trading in a parallel channel for about 175 days. This has been a test of patience, draining much of the motivation from market participants—especially as traditional markets have performed so well this year. However, our time is coming. I've been quietly stacking at these lower prices, with confidence in what's to come.
Let's take a moment to analyze the technicals. On the weekly chart, we remain within the aforementioned channel, and the Bollinger Bands have become extremely tight—often a precursor to significant price movement. The price currently sits near the bottom of the BB%b indicator, signaling that Bitcoin may be oversold.
Next, we turn to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is currently sitting at 47 on the weekly chart. This essentially indicates a reset, giving us room for a potential upward move. However, it’s important to acknowledge that while it doesn’t limit a higher price move, it also doesn’t preclude further downside.
Supporting my bullish thesis as we approach year-end is the "Sine Line" indicator. This tool, which aligns with time and cycle theory, suggests that we are nearing the bottom of bearish momentum, forecasting a return to upward price action in the coming weeks and months.
Finally, let’s talk about projecting previous cycles into the future using the Bar Pattern tool in TradingView. To create this pattern, I mapped the price movements from September (post-halving) for the last three cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), extending the trend from September to the top of each cycle. Interestingly, each cycle lasted approximately the same length of time and aligns well with the Sine Line tool. It points to an expected cycle top around December 2025.
Just for fun, I plotted the potential price levels if Bitcoin were to follow similar run-ups from those cycles. While I don’t expect a 2012 or 2016-style price explosion in the next year, it's fascinating to note that all three cycles fit perfectly into the current price channel. This strengthens my conviction that we've already seen the market bottom and are poised to resume our bullish direction soon.
As always, #frens, I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts and analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Please do your own research and take actions that are appropriate for your unique situation. That said—do take action.
For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all.
#FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
As we find ourselves in another week of downward price action, I want to believe that this could be a massive fake-out as we patiently await the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts expected during the week of September 18th (source:(cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html).
Looking at Bitcoin's historical patterns, particularly market seasonality—defined as predictable trends in asset prices driven by recurring events such as holidays, earnings seasons, tax deadlines, or consumer behavior—we can expect a positive trend reversal starting in October. Historically, Bitcoin has delivered an average Q4 return of almost 89%. From today’s prices, this would put us on a trajectory towards the 100K mark by year-end (source: coinglass.com/today).
Additionally, when we examine the liquidation heat-maps, the liquidity below current prices has mostly been exhausted, meaning that downward pressure from market makers could begin to ease as fewer positions remain to be liquidated below this range. Now, the most tempting targets are the shorts—many of which began shorting around the 74K all-time high. It may be time for a short squeeze (source: Liquidation Heat-map (coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap).
Now for the exciting part: We've been trading in a parallel channel for about 175 days. This has been a test of patience, draining much of the motivation from market participants—especially as traditional markets have performed so well this year. However, our time is coming. I've been quietly stacking at these lower prices, with confidence in what's to come.
Let's take a moment to analyze the technicals. On the weekly chart, we remain within the aforementioned channel, and the Bollinger Bands have become extremely tight—often a precursor to significant price movement. The price currently sits near the bottom of the BB%b indicator, signaling that Bitcoin may be oversold.
Next, we turn to the RSI (Relative Strength Index), which is currently sitting at 47 on the weekly chart. This essentially indicates a reset, giving us room for a potential upward move. However, it’s important to acknowledge that while it doesn’t limit a higher price move, it also doesn’t preclude further downside.
Supporting my bullish thesis as we approach year-end is the "Sine Line" indicator. This tool, which aligns with time and cycle theory, suggests that we are nearing the bottom of bearish momentum, forecasting a return to upward price action in the coming weeks and months.
Finally, let’s talk about projecting previous cycles into the future using the Bar Pattern tool in TradingView. To create this pattern, I mapped the price movements from September (post-halving) for the last three cycles (2012, 2016, and 2020), extending the trend from September to the top of each cycle. Interestingly, each cycle lasted approximately the same length of time and aligns well with the Sine Line tool. It points to an expected cycle top around December 2025.
Just for fun, I plotted the potential price levels if Bitcoin were to follow similar run-ups from those cycles. While I don’t expect a 2012 or 2016-style price explosion in the next year, it's fascinating to note that all three cycles fit perfectly into the current price channel. This strengthens my conviction that we've already seen the market bottom and are poised to resume our bullish direction soon.
As always, #frens, I appreciate you taking the time to read my thoughts and analysis. Remember, this is just my opinion. Please do your own research and take actions that are appropriate for your unique situation. That said—do take action.
For more insights, please visit my webpage at linker.ee/pcalzolaio. I look forward to sharing this journey with you all.
#FIRE #FREEDOM #BITCOIN
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
I’m passionate about analyzing charts and uncovering patterns. Your support means I can dedicate more time to this work. If you'd like to help, follow my link: linktr.ee/pcalzolaio. Thank you!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.